Secession Camps Have an Edge in Voter Breakdown.

LAST week's certification of petitions seeking to have Hollywood secede from the city of L.A. adds another 206,000 people to the total of those living in areas seeking to leave the city. That total now stands at roughly 1.64 million, or 43 percent of the 3.82 million residents of Los Angeles, hardly an insignificant number.

What's more, according to Shirley Svorney, professor of economics at Cal State Northridge, the addition of Hollywood to the official secession proposals of the San Fernando Valley and the Harbor area means that more than 50 percent of likely voters in the city reside in these three areas. The San Fernando Valley alone had 48 percent of the total citywide voter turnout in the Nov. 7 election.

"I don't think when this whole secession thing started that anyone ever thought that a majority of likely voters in the city would reside in areas seeking to secede," Svorney said. "That's a major development."

This is crucial because any vote to secede not only requires a majorty within the area seeking secession but also a majority of votes citywide Knowing this, secession proponents in these three areas have long sought to get their secession proposals on the same ballot. They are now pushing for the measures to be placed on the November 2002 ballot.

"There's no doubt there will be a benefit to us with all three measures on the same ballot," said Jeff Brain, president of Valley VOTE, the San Fernando Valley pro-secession organization.

In a 1999 poll, 60 percent of San Fernando Valley residents favored secession, while San Fernando Valley secession garnered 47 percent support citywide.

Currently, the San Fernando Valley and San Pedro/Wilmington secession proposals are being studied by the Local Agency Formation Commission; Hollywood secession proponents will present their proposal to LAFCO in coming weeks.

LAFCO will have to figure out how to divide the assets between the city and each of these areas seeking secession; ultimately, the agency must certify that secession in each of these three areas will be revenue neutral before it will allow any measures to be placed on the ballot.