Schwarzenegger's liberal leanings may not faze GOP.

CONSERVATIVE Republican voters may hold the key to who replaces Gray Davis as governor in the Oct. 7 recall election, should the recall itself succeed.

Arnold Schwarzenegger may have name identification, star power and plenty of dollars, but many conservative Republican voters have so far said he's not their man. Groups like the Orange County-based Traditional Values Coalition say his not-so-conservative views on gay rights, abortion and gun control make him unfit to bear the conservative banner. Probably not helping was word that billionaire Warren Buffett, no friend of conservatives, would be joining the Schwarzenegger campaign as an economic advisor.

As of late last week, there were two candidates running to replace Davis who tout conservative credentials: State Sen. Tom McClintock, R-Thousand Oaks, and last year's Republican gubernatorial nominee Bill Simon.

It's no secret that conservative Republicans come out to vote in disproportionately high numbers. So the question becomes: will conservatives stick with "their candidates"--McClintock or Simon--or will they take the more pragmatic approach and support Schwarzenegger who probably has the best shot of "all the Republicans at winning the recall election.

"No question, if the conservatives stick with McClintock or Simon, that will take votes away from Schwarzenegger," said Tony Quinn, a Sacramento-based political analyst and former GOP consultant. "With so many candidates, that could be enough to "allow Cruz Bustamante to emerge as the winner," he said, referring to the state lieutenant governor and only prominent Democrat in the race.

Polling data last week showed Schwarzenegger topping the field of replacement candidates with 42 percent support, with Bustamante coming in at 22 percent. Simon and McClintock came in tied at 13 percent each. (This CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll also included potential candidates who did not file to run, such as former L.A. Mayor Richard Riordan, Insurance Commissioner John Garumendi and Rep. Loretta Sanchez, D-Santa Ana.)

But there are indications that many conservatives are taking a half-a-loaf approach rather than risk Bustamante sneaking in to the governor's chair.

"There may be the ideological die-hards, but a lot of conservatives are pragmatic," said Republican pollster Arnold Steinberg. "If it looks like Bustamante might win this thing, these folks may very well switch to Schwarzenegger to get a Republican back in the governor's mansion."

Another possibility is that Schwarzenegger himself may start appealing to conservatives, especially on fiscal matters. In the end, it may not come down to complex political or strategic considerations. As Quinn put it, "I'm getting hints that conservatives may end up sun porting Schwarzenegger because he smells like a winner."

Bipartisan Legal Eagles

It may seem like partisan rancor is a permanent fixture in Sacramento, but that wasn't always the ease. From time to time, some lasting friendships have formed across party lines.

Take the case of former Assembly Speaker Robert Hertzberg, a Democrat from the San Fernando Valley, and former Assembly Republican Leader Scott Baugh from Orange County. Back in the late 1990s, these two frequently faced off in the Assembly; now they're friends on the same legal team.

Last year, shortly after leaving office, Hertzberg signed on with the government practice of the L.A. office of Mayer, Brown, Rowe & Maw LLP. Earlier this month, Baugh joined him there after a two-year stint at Manatt, Phelps & Phillips LLP.

"The opportunity to work by my old friend Bob Hertzberg was too good to pass up," Baugh told the Business Journal, explaining why he left the Democrat-dominated firm of Manatt Phelps.

"We may not have agreed on many things, but he (Baugh) was always a consummate professional. He was a 'figure-it-out, get-it-done' kind of guy," Hertzberg said.

Of course it helped that there was a huge budget surplus when Hertzberg and Baugh led their parties in the Assembly, which meant there was plenty of money to go around.

Business Tax Reform Promises

The roster of L.A. city council members charged with getting major business tax reforms passed is a lengthy one. First there was former Councilman Richard Alatorre, then former Councilman Mike Feuer and, most recently, city Councilwoman Wendy Greuel. While each was able to get some small reforms through, the really big fish--simplifying the tax to get greater compliance and thus lower everyone's tax rates--eluded all of them.

Now there's a new name on the list: newly elected City Councilman Tony Cardenas. The former state Assembly Budget Committee chairman was named last month to chair the Ad-Hoc Committee on Business Tax Reform.

In a recent speech to the Current Affairs Forum, a downtown-based group of business and civic leaders, Cardenas stressed his commitment to getting significant reform passed.

"I was a businessman in this city for over 10 years," the 41-year-old Cardenas said. "I know what's it like to sign those paychecks and I Idled out all those city and county forms. I also know that we are losing businesses to surrounding communities and states.

"Many people have talked about changing the business tax for many, many years," Cardenas continued. "I don't just want to talk the talk. I want to walk the walk. I have no excuses. I am in the exact position I want to be in to make that difference. And I promise you that you will see the difference."

Given the tortured history of business tax reform, it will be interesting to see what progress Cardenas will be able to report when he returns in a year or two to address the forum again.

Staff reporter Howard Fine can be reached by phone at [phone], ext. 227, or by e-mail at [e-mail].