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Schaeffer's Daily Market Blog Features Novatel Wireless, Qualcomm, Apollo Group, Google, and Arthrocare.


CINCINNATI -- Among the stocks featured in the June 28 edition of Schaeffer's Market Blog are Novatel Wireless Novatel Wireless, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVTL) is a San Diego, California-based designer and manufacturer of wireless broadband access solutions. With European offices in United Kingdom, Germany, and France, Novatel Wireless owns 30 technology patents relating to wireless voice and  (NASDAQ NASDAQ
 in full National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations

U.S. market for over-the-counter securities. Established in 1971 by the National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD), NASDAQ is an automated quotation system that reports on
:NVTL), Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM QCOM Qualcomm, Inc. (stock symbol) ), Apollo Group Apollo Group, Inc. NASDAQ: APOL is an S&P 500 corporation based in Phoenix, Arizona. Apollo Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides higher education to working adults.  (NASDAQ:APOL APOL Asia Pacific Online
APOL Alternate Person on Line
), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG GOOG Google, Inc. (stock symbol) ), and Arthrocare (NASDAQ:ARTC ARTC Arthrocare Corp (stock symbol)
ARTC Australian Rail Track Corporation
ARTC Air Route Traffic Control
ARTC Association de la Recherche Theatrale au Canada
ARTC Andean Root and Tuber Crops
). Schaeffer's Market Blog is just one of the many free market commentaries written everyday at www.SchaeffersResearch.com - the home of Bernie Schaeffer and Schaeffer's Investment Research. The Market Blog is written throughout every trading day In Business, the trading day is the time span that a particular stock exchange is open. For example, the New York Stock Exchange is, as of 2006, open from 09:30AM to 4:00PM. Trading days never take place on weekends.  by Schaeffer's financial analysts and traders. They are quick insights to the day's most notable market activity from an options perspective. For additional information about this report or to have it delivered to you free via email every day click on the following link. http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/redirect.aspx?CODE=PROB PROB Probable/Probably
PROB Problem
PROB People's Republic of Bangladesh
1M&PAGE=1 .

Schaeffer's Market Blog for Tuesday, June 28, 2005:

Below are just a few of today's Market Blog entries. Click here to read all of today's Market Blog. http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/redirect.aspx?CODE=PROB1C&PAGE=1 .

10:39 AM Novatel Wireless Rebounds

Novatel Wireless (NASDAQ:NVTL) is seeing continued buying action in early trading. The stock is up more than three percent today on the heels of yesterday's 3.5-percent gain. NVTL was one of the market's biggest gainers in May, moving from 8.96 to 12.47, a gain of 39 percent. After making a short-term top at 14.30 on June 10, the stock pulled back to a key area of support at 12. That 12 level had acted as resistance in March 2005 and support in January and February. It is also the site of the NVTL's intermediate-term 10-week moving average, a trendline that has been key in directing the stock's trend in 2005. Pessimism also exists on the stock as evidenced by high short interest. NVTL's short interest remains near an all-time high and amounts to a whopping 18 percent of the stock's float.

10:47 AM Qualcomm Complacency?

Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) is fast approaching its mid-April lows and there are definite signs of complacency in this stock. Complacency can be seen in the form of its put/call open interest ratio and its equity volatility index (VIX VIX

The implied volatility on the S&P 100 (OEX) option. This volatility is meant to be a forward looking volatility. It is calculated from both calls and puts that are near the money. The VIX is a popular measure of market risk.
) readings.

The put/call open interest ratio on QCOM stands at 0.65 and the 12th percentile percentile,
n the number in a frequency distribution below which a certain percentage of fees will fall. E.g., the ninetieth percentile is the number that divides the distribution of fees into the lower 90% and the upper 10%, or that fee level
 for the past year's worth of readings. Below is a chart of the current put/call ratio.

Furthermore, QCOM's VIX readings are nowhere close to previous levels when QCOM was at present levels (32-34). This is an additional sign of complacency.

1:16 PM Apollo: Tries Hard But Could Do Better

Yesterday, Apollo Group (NASDAQ:APOL) was the featured stock in our Options Update observation. I said that the stock performance had been lackluster, but the sentiment was optimistic, and so the quarterly earnings, which were announced today, needed to be good. As it turns out, they were good, but not good enough. APOL reported that third-quarter profit rose 40 percent. Net income came in at $141.8 million, or 77 cents per share Cents per share

The amount of a mutual fund's dividend or capital gains distributions that a shareholder will receive for each share owned.
, beating Thomson First Call's consensus estimate of 74 cents per share. Total revenue for the quarter advanced 25 percent to $619 million from $497 million a year ago. Enrollment for degree programs was up 23 percent from a year ago.

So why is the stock price down by 3.4 percent this morning? It seems APOL's projections for the fourth quarter failed to impress the optimists. The company projected earnings at 67 cents per share, which was in line with the analysts' estimate. It projected revenue at $605 million to $620 million, whereas analysts had hoped for $622 million.

So, there you have it. APOL did very well, but still left the Street disappointed. This is why we study sentiment so closely. That one small miss, amid strong optimistic sentiment, moved the stock price a long way.

Digging deeper into yesterday's activity shows that option players aggressively added out-of-the-money puts ahead of the earnings report. There were 2,400 additions at the July 75 strike yesterday. The peak front-month open interest also resides at the 75 level, with approximately 6,000 contracts of open interest at this level.

This level may serve as options-related support, although the stock has made a nice recovery off this morning's low. At last check, APOL was trading $1.77 lower on the day to $78.50.

1:36 PM Go, Go, Google!

With shares of Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) blowing through $300, we're compelled to wonder how much is too much to pay for this stock. Despite investors getting burned on high flying stocks back in 2000, there doesn't seem to be that much skepticism toward GOOG. Options players in particular are becoming increasingly optimistic toward the issue. Over the past two trading sessions, call option volume has nearly tripled put volume. Now I wouldn't go stand in the way of a stock with this much momentum, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a sharp pullback sooner rather than later.

2:22 PM ArthroCare Moves Higher on Huge Short Interest

According to according to
prep.
1. As stated or indicated by; on the authority of: according to historians.

2. In keeping with: according to instructions.

3.
 Hoover's, Arthrocare's (NASDAQ:ARTC) proprietary Coblation technology uses radio-frequency energy to remove soft tissue from the body. Its Arthroscopic Surgery Arthroscopic Surgery Definition

Arthroscopic surgery is a procedure to visualize, diagnose, and treat joint problems. The name is derived from the Greek words arthron, which means joint, and skopein, which means to look at.
 System lets surgeons use specialized wands to focus the energy and minimize damage to nearby healthy tissue, simultaneously sealing small, bleeding vessels. First used in arthroscopic procedures to repair joints, the electrosurgery electrosurgery /elec·tro·sur·gery/ (-ser´jer-e) surgery performed by electrical methods; the active electrode may be a needle, bulb, or disk.electrosur´gical

e·lec·tro·sur·ger·y
n.
 system product line now includes equipment used in ear, nose, and throat procedures; cardiology and gynecology; spinal and neurological surgery; and cosmetic surgery cosmetic surgery, plastic surgery for cosmetic purposes, such as the improvement of the appearance of the face by removing wrinkles or reshaping the nose. . ARTC has been a stellar long-term performer, gaining more than 250 percent since January 2003. After losing more than five percent last week to fall to support at 33, the stock is rebounding with the market today. ARTC is up more than five percent. Short sellers have lined up strongly against the company, however. Short interest rose 13 percent last month to an all-time high. ARTC's short-interest ratio short-interest ratio

A ratio that is used for market analysis and is calculated by dividing short interest by average daily volume. Technicians use the short-interest ratio as a tool to determine market direction.
 is a huge 17 days. The 6.3 million shares sold short amount to a monstrous 26 percent of the stock's float.

The above are just a few of today's Daily Market Blog entries. Click here to read all of today's Daily Market Blog. http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/redirect.aspx?CODE=PROB1C&PAGE=1 .

Take advantage of the timely Schaeffer commentaries by signing up for their free e-newsletters -- Opening View, Market Recap and Monday Morning Outlook. Click here to have the Schaeffer's commentaries delivered to you free via email every day. http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/redirect.aspx?CODE=PROB1M&PAGE=1 .

About Schaeffer's Investment Research (www.SchaeffersResearch.com)

Schaeffer's Investment Research, founded by Bernie Schaeffer in 1981, is a financial information and trading resources company. It publishes Bernie Schaeffer's Option Advisor, the nation's leading options subscription newsletter. The firm's contrarian approach focuses on stocks with technical and fundamental trends that run counter to investor expectations. The firm's website, http://www.SchaeffersResearch.com , is recognized as one of the leading information sources for stock and options traders and was cited as the top options website by both Forbes and Barron's. Click here for more details about Schaeffer's trading methodology: http://www.SchaeffersResearch.com/method .
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Publication:Business Wire
Geographic Code:1USA
Date:Jun 28, 2005
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