Schaeffer's Daily Market Blog Features: Hovnanian Enterprises, Limited Brands, Big Lots, RealNetworks, and Urban Outfitters.CINCINNATI -- Among the stocks featured in the November 8 edition of Schaeffer's Market Blog are Hovnanian Enterprises Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. NYSE: HOV incorporated in 1967, designs, constructs, markets and sells single-family detached houses, attached townhouses and condominiums, mid-rise and high-rise condominiums, urban infill and retirement housing in the United States. (NYSE NYSE See: New York Stock Exchange :HOV), Limited Brands (NYSE:LTD LTD 1 Laron-type dwarfism 2 Leukotriene D 3 Long-term depression, see there 4. Long-term disability ), Big Lots (NYSE:BIG), RealNetworks (NASDAQ NASDAQ in full National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations U.S. market for over-the-counter securities. Established in 1971 by the National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD), NASDAQ is an automated quotation system that reports on :RNWK RNWK Real Networks (stock symbol) ), and Urban Outfitters Urban Outfitters, Inc. NASDAQ: URBN owns and operates three retail clothing brands: Urban Outfitters, Anthropologie and Free People. The first store opened in 1970 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, focusing on "funky" fashion and household products. (NASDAQ:URBN). Schaeffer's Market Blog is just one of the many free market commentaries written every day at www.SchaeffersResearch.com - the home of Bernie Schaeffer and Schaeffer's Investment Research. The Market Blog is written throughout every trading day In Business, the trading day is the time span that a particular stock exchange is open. For example, the New York Stock Exchange is, as of 2006, open from 09:30AM to 4:00PM. Trading days never take place on weekends. by Schaeffer's financial analysts and traders. They are quick insights to the day's most notable market activity from an options perspective. To have this report delivered to you free via email every day click on the following link and you'll also get an opportunity to win an iPod Nano A flash-based digital music player from Apple, introduced in 2005. Like larger iPod models, the nano has a color screen. Although the nano name suggests ultra-small "nanotechnology," the iPod shuffle is actually smaller. See iPod. . http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/redirect.aspx?CODE=PROB PROB Probable/Probably PROB Problem PROB People's Republic of Bangladesh 13M&PAGE=1 . Don't forget that many of our observations are available as audio presentations that you can hear on your computer or download from Apple's iTunes Music Store to play on a portable device such as an iPod. To see the full menu of podcasts, please visit http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/podcasts/. 10:07 Hovnanian Drops As if it hasn't been a rough week for homebuilders already, Hovnanian Enterprises (NYSE:HOV) announced that it expects to recognize impairment charges and report a fourth-quarter loss. The company expects to take roughly $300 million in quarterly impairment and land-option write-off charges. HOV's previous estimate was in a range between $5 and $5.75 per share, with the consensus estimate calling for $5 per share. Without the expected charges, the company expects to deliver between $4.85 and $5.25 per share. Late yesterday, HOV announced that net contracts for the fourth quarter dropped 36 percent in comparison to a year ago. Cancellations represented 35 percent of gross contracts, up from 33 percent in the third quarter. Chief Executive Ara Hovnanian stated, "our financial results for the fourth quarter continued to be negatively impacted by high cancellation rates and increased use of concessions and incentives, particularly on the resale of those homes which experienced contract cancellations." Hovnanian echoed comments from other homebuilders' CEOs this week that they have yet to see signs of improvement in the nation's housing market. This negative news has HOV nearly 1.5 percent lower in this morning's early trading. 10:58 AM New Vision at Limited Brands More push-up bras for everyone! Bloomberg News reported today that Limited Brands (NYSE:LTD) is expanding the floor space of its Victoria's Secret For the Sonata Arctica single, see Victoria's Secret (song) Victoria's Secret is an American retailer of high quality lingerie and beauty products.[2] locations by as much as 10 percent in 2007. The move fits into the retailer's strategy to lift its per-share profit by 12 percent a year. Technically speaking, LTD has enjoyed a push-up of its own, rallying 65 percent in the past 12 months. During the past few months, the stock has used the support of its rising 10-day and 20-day moving averages to stair-step to a new all-time high. As LTD approaches its quarterly earnings report next Thursday (November 16), options players are slightly predisposed pre·dis·pose v. pre·dis·posed, pre·dis·pos·ing, pre·dis·pos·es v.tr. 1. a. To make (someone) inclined to something in advance: to the bearish Bearish Words used to describe investor attitude. A bearish investor believes that a particular asset or the market as a whole will decline in value. bearish camp. Currently, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR SOIR Schaeffer's Put/Call Open Interest Ratio SOIR Simultaneous Operations on Intersecting Runways ) stands at 0.98, in the 63rd annual percentile percentile, n the number in a frequency distribution below which a certain percentage of fees will fall. E.g., the ninetieth percentile is the number that divides the distribution of fees into the lower 90% and the upper 10%, or that fee level of all readings gathered over the past year. Analysts are straddling strad·dle v. strad·dled, strad·dling, strad·dles v.tr. 1. a. To stand or sit with a leg on each side of; bestride: straddle a horse. b. the fence as well, with eight "buy" ratings along with eight "holds." Both Reuters and Zacks report a consensus earnings expectation of seven cents per share Cents per share The amount of a mutual fund's dividend or capital gains distributions that a shareholder will receive for each share owned. for next week's report; one year ago, LTD posted a per-share loss of three cents. 10:59 AM NYSE & NASDAQ New Highs/New Lows With Equity Scorecard Each day, our Trader's Blog features tables with stocks achieving new annual highs or lows while sporting an "extreme" Schaeffer's Equity Scorecard rating. Today's tables include Big Lots (NYSE:BIG) and its score of 9.0 out of 10 and RealNetworks (NASDAQ:RNWK) and its score of 8.0 out of 10. 11:48 AM Puts Pop on Urban Outfitters A put/call open interest ratio is simply the ratio of total put open interest to total call open interest. We compute Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) based on open interest in the front three months only. These near-term options tend to attract a more speculative crowd, the sentiment of which is more useful for shorter-term trading. One of the filters available in our Schaeffer's Plus is the Daily SOIR Changes filter, which lists the stocks that have seen the largest percentage jump in their SOIR overnight. I was caught by the significant jump in Urban Outfitter's (NASDAQ:URBN) SOIR from 1.26 to 1.52, which is now higher than all other readings taken during the past year. In trading on Tuesday, open interest at the equity's December 15 put jumped by more than 3,800 contracts, while the December 17.50 put added roughly nearly 2,900 contracts. The majority of this volume appears linked to what could have been a ratio backspread. The December 17.50 put has a total of 1,831 contracts trade between 10:03 and 10:09 a.m. Eastern time, which were marked "spread." These contracts changed hands between the bid and ask price at 0.60. Meanwhile, the December 15 put has 3,662 contracts cross the tape at the same time as a bid price of 0.10. Yesterday, the firm announced that third-quarter same-store sales Same-store sales is a business term which refers to the revenue generated by one of a retail chain's specific outlets during a certain period of time (often a fiscal quarter or a particular shopping season), compared to an identical period in the past, usually in the previous year. dropped 10 percent. Total sales rose seven percent to $308 million, driven by a 24-percent increase in the total number of stores in operation. On Tuesday, the stock gained 2.7 percent to close at $18.36. The equity is determined to continue its rally today, as it is currently up 1.9 percent at $18.70. For more information on these stocks or any stock in your portfolio, feel free to visit our Schaeffer's Equity Scorecard feature. Click here to read all of today's Market Blog: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/redirect.aspx?CODE=PROB13C&PAGE=1. Take advantage of the timely Schaeffer commentaries by signing up for their free e-newsletters -- Opening View, Market Recap and Monday Morning Outlook. Click here to have the Schaeffer's commentaries delivered to you free via email every day and get entered to win an IPod Nano. http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/redirect.aspx?CODE=PROB13M&PAGE=1. About Schaeffer's Investment Research (www.SchaeffersResearch.com) Schaeffer's Investment Research, founded by Bernie Schaeffer in 1981, is a financial information and trading resources company. It publishes Bernie Schaeffer's Option Advisor, the nation's leading options subscription newsletter. The firm's contrarian approach focuses on stocks with technical and fundamental trends that run counter to investor expectations. The firm's website, http://www.SchaeffersResearch.com , is recognized as one of the leading information sources for stock and options traders and was cited as the top options website by both Forbes and Barron's. Click here for more details about Schaeffer's trading methodology: http://www.SchaeffersResearch.com/method . |
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