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Schaeffer's Daily Market Blog Features: AutoNation, Family Dollar, CBOE Market Volatility Index, Bob Evans, and DaimlerChrysler.


CINCINNATI -- Among the stocks featured in the September 28 edition of Schaeffer's Market Blog are AutoNation (NYSE NYSE

See: New York Stock Exchange
:AN), Family Dollar (NYSE:FDO FDO Feature Data Object
FDO Functional Device Object
FDO Flight Dynamics Officer
FDO Fire Direction Officer
FDO Freshman Dean's Office (Harvard University)
FDO Flexible Deterrent Options
FDO Foreningen Danske Olieberedskabslagre
), CBOE CBOE

See: Chicago Board Options Exchange


CBOE

See Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE).
 Market Volatility Index (CBOE:VIX VIX

The implied volatility on the S&P 100 (OEX) option. This volatility is meant to be a forward looking volatility. It is calculated from both calls and puts that are near the money. The VIX is a popular measure of market risk.
), Bob Evans (NASDAQ NASDAQ
 in full National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations

U.S. market for over-the-counter securities. Established in 1971 by the National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD), NASDAQ is an automated quotation system that reports on
:BOBE BOBE Beyond Ordinary Bath Essentials
BOBE Break Once Break Everywhere (digital rights management) 
), and DaimlerChrysler (NYSE:DCX DCX DaimlerChrysler Ag (stock symbol)
DCX Dixie Chicks (American country rock band)
DCX Multipage PCX (file extension/format)
DCX Double Convex
DCX Double Charge Exchange
). Schaeffer's Market Blog is just one of the many free market commentaries written every day at www.SchaeffersResearch.com - the home of Bernie Schaeffer and Schaeffer's Investment Research. The Market Blog is written throughout every trading day In Business, the trading day is the time span that a particular stock exchange is open. For example, the New York Stock Exchange is, as of 2006, open from 09:30AM to 4:00PM. Trading days never take place on weekends.  by Schaeffer's financial analysts and traders. They are quick insights to the day's most notable market activity from an options perspective. To have this report delivered to you free via email every day click on the following link and you'll also get an opportunity to win an iPod Nano A flash-based digital music player from Apple, introduced in 2005. Like larger iPod models, the nano has a color screen. Although the nano name suggests ultra-small "nanotechnology," the iPod shuffle is actually smaller. See iPod. . http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/redirect.aspx?CODE=PROB PROB Probable/Probably
PROB Problem
PROB People's Republic of Bangladesh
13M&PAGE=1

8:06 AM Free Financial Podcasts

Don't forget that many of our observations are available as audio presentations that you can hear on your computer or download from Apple's iTunes Music Store to play on a portable device such as an iPod. To see the full menu of podcasts, please visit http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/podcasts/

11:40 AM AutoNation (AN) Upgraded

AutoNation (NYSE:AN) received a boost this morning when Bear Stearns The Bear Stearns Companies, Inc. (NYSE: BSC) is the parent company of Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc., one of the largest global investment banks and securities trading and brokerage firms in the world.  upgraded the firm from "peer perform" to "outperform." The brokerage firm cited lower financing costs and attractive valuation. Furthermore, analyst Michael Geoghagan stated that production cuts at the Big 3 auto makers -- General Motors, Ford Motor and DaimlerChrysler -- could be a positive for AutoNation "to the extent that leaner inventory reduces floor-plan (inventory) financing costs and supports higher transaction prices (because of less pressure to liquidate)."

Technically speaking, the shares have jumped more than two percent this morning on the positive comments, pushing them through former resistance at the 20.80 level. What's more, the stock has skipped above its declining 20-week moving average, which it has logged only one weekly close above since mid-May.

1:17 PM Family Dollar Looks to the Future

In early-afternoon trading, Family Dollar (NYSE:FDO) shares have dropped more than three percent as shareholders digest the discount retailer's latest earnings report. This morning, the firm announced fourth-quarter earnings of $38.8 million, or 26 cents per share Cents per share

The amount of a mutual fund's dividend or capital gains distributions that a shareholder will receive for each share owned.
, up from year-ago results of $29.2 million, or 18 cents per share. This topped analysts' consensus per-share estimate of 23 cents. Sales increased 10.3 percent during the reporting period to $1.58 billion, while same-store sales Same-store sales is a business term which refers to the revenue generated by one of a retail chain's specific outlets during a certain period of time (often a fiscal quarter or a particular shopping season), compared to an identical period in the past, usually in the previous year.  jumped up 4.8 percent.

For the first quarter, FDO expects to earn between 34 and 38 cents per share, surrounding analysts' consensus view of 37 cents. Same-store sales are expected to rise between two and four percent during the current period. For fiscal-year 2007, FDO expects per-share results of $1.57 to $1.69, amid higher transportation costs and a gradual mix toward lower-margin consumable merchandise that will impact the retailer's gross margins.

Today's pullback initially forced FDO shares below their 20-day moving average but the stock has now retaken control of this trendline and is sandwiched between this and its 10-day moving average.

1:55 PM Betting on Increased Volatility

Call options on the CBOE Volatility Index CBOE Volatility Index

See VIX Index.
 (CBOE:VIX) are quite popular today, as nearly 30,000 contracts just at the November 15 strike have been traded thus far. There is little-to-no put option activity on the VIX. This is a large bet on an increase in volatility, which usually means a sharp drop in the broader market. As the market declines and people rush out to buy put option protection for their portfolios, the VIX increases. The current VIX reading is 11.84. I've noticed in the past, these types of plays tend to be "smart money."

3:04 PM Where'd You Go to Lunch?

Today I went to lunch at Bob Evans (NASDAQ:BOBE), so now I want to take a look at this one a little closer. First off, the food was great and we waited for 15 minutes, and the place was packed - so things must be going pretty good on the fundamental side. Looking at the stock I can see the results, as the shares are up near their highs set back in March and up about 20 percent since early August. Interestingly, there aren't any options on this one, nor any analyst ratings. To me this shows there's a good deal of money still left on the sidelines On the sidelines

An investor who decides not to invest due to market uncertainty.


on the sidelines

Of or relating to investors who, having assessed the market, have decided to avoid committing their funds.
 from these two influential groups. One bit of skepticism can be found from the shorts, as they're all over it; it would take nearly eight days for them to cover all of their shorted positions.

3:17 PM Sales News from DaimlerChrysler (DCX)

Following the lead of some of its peers, Chrysler Group, which is the U.S. arm of DaimlerChrysler (NYSE:DCX) , is reducing its vehicle sales outlook of 2006 as it now expects to sell fewer cars than it did in 2005. The firm's head of sales and marketing, Joe Eberhardt broke this news to Dow Jones Dow Jones

the best known of several U.S. indexes of movements in price on Wall Street. [Am. Hist.: Payton, 202]

See : Finance
 during an auto show in Paris.

During the first eight months of 2006, combined sales of the Chrysler, Jeep, and Dodge brands declined 10 percent to 1.459 million vehicles. Eberhardt observed that "On the whole year, we believe that the decline will be less than 10%, with stabilizing sales in the remainder of 2006." Looking forward, he noted that 2007 sales should be strong than the final numbers this year, thanks to the rollout of eight new models with the low-fuel feature that is currently all the rage General Public's All the Rage was released in 1984 by I.R.S. Records. Track listing
  1. "Hot You're Cool"
  2. "Tenderness"
  3. "Anxious"
  4. "Never You Done That"
  5. "Burning Bright"
  6. "As a Matter of Fact"
  7. "Are You Leading Me On?"
  8. "Day-to-Day"
. Due to this altered outlook, DCX now expects profits of EUR EUR

In currencies, this is the abbreviation for the Euro.

Notes:
The currency market, also known as the Foreign Exchange market, is the largest financial market in the world, with a daily average volume of over US $1 trillion.
5 billion instead of EUR6 billion.

While DCX shares gapped lower out of the gate, they have spent most of Thursday fighting back and are within half a percent of breakeven as we trek toward the close. The stock is still hovering above long-term support at the 50 level, a former site of resistance throughout 2004 and during the first half of 2005.

For more information on these stocks or any stock in your portfolio, feel free to visit our Schaeffer's Equity Scorecard feature. Click here to read all of today's Market Blog: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/redirect.aspx?CODE=PROB13C&PAGE=1

Take advantage of the timely Schaeffer commentaries by signing up for their free e-newsletters -- Opening View, Market Recap and Monday Morning Outlook. Click here to have the Schaeffer's commentaries delivered to you free via email every day and get entered to win an IPod Nano. http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/redirect.aspx?CODE=PROB13M&PAGE=1

About Schaeffer's Investment Research (www.SchaeffersResearch.com)

Schaeffer's Investment Research, founded by Bernie Schaeffer in 1981, is a financial information and trading resources company. It publishes Bernie Schaeffer's Option Advisor, the nation's leading options subscription newsletter. The firm's contrarian approach focuses on stocks with technical and fundamental trends that run counter to investor expectations. The firm's website, http://www.SchaeffersResearch.com, is recognized as one of the leading information sources for stock and options traders and was cited as the top options website by both Forbes and Barron's. Click here for more details about Schaeffer's trading methodology: http://www.SchaeffersResearch.com/method.
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