Saudis Won't Take Sides.

Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal on Dec. 19 said Saudi Arabia would not take sides in Iraqi sectarian violence, denying press reports that Riyadh would support Sunnis in the wake of a US withdrawal from the war-torn country. He told reporters in Riyadh: "Since the start of the crisis in Iraq...the kingdom has said it will stand at an equal distance from all Iraqi groups and does not describe itself as the guardian of any group or sect". He said Saudi Arabia would continue its efforts to bring about security and stability in Iraq, adding: "We co-operate with all those who want a united, independent and sovereign Iraq. And we hope all Iraqi citizens receive equal rights and duties under the law".

Writing in The Washington Post on Nov. 29, a senior Saudi government security adviser warned that Saudi Arabia will intervene - using money, weapons and its oil power - to prevent Iranian-backed Shi'ite militias from massacring Iraqi Sunnis once the US begins pulling out of Iraq. This is a more credible sign that Prince Saud's diplomatic statement.

The adviser, Nawaf Obaid, is a cautious person working for the Saudi government. He would not have written such a warning in a US newspaper of such high standing and The Washington Post would not have published it, had he not been authorised to do so by someone at the top political leadership.

Iraq's Sunni Arab neighbours, led by Saudi Arabia and Egypt and including Jordan, fear that the sectarian violence in Iraq could spill into large-scale civil war between Shi'ites and Sunnis in the Muslim world and set off a political earthquake far beyond this part of the Middle East. (It is important to note that the Muslim world has a population of about 1.4 bn. Of this the Sunnis account for about 90%. The Ja'fari Shi'ites account for less than 10%. But the Shi'ites are concentrated on the world's biggest oil provinces in the Middle East - mainly in Iran, Iraq, the Saudi Eastern Province and in communities spread all the way from Kuwait down to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India).

Obaid wrote in The Washington Post that the Saudi leadership was preparing to revise its Iraq policy to deal with the aftermath of a US pullout, and was considering options including flooding the oil market to crash prices and thus limit Iran's capacity to finance Shi'ite militias in Iraq as well as Hizbullah in Lebanon and other Shi'ite groups in the Muslim world. Obaid said: "To be sure, Saudi engagement in Iraq carries great risks - it could spark a regional war. So be it: the consequences of inaction are far worse". The article said the opinions expressed were Mr Obaid's own and not those of the Saudi government, headed by King Abdullah ibn Abdul Aziz. But it is unlikely that such a piece could have been written without permission.

Obaid wrote: "To turn a blind eye to the massacre of Iraqi Sunnis would undermine Saudi Arabia's credibility in the Sunni world [as being its leader] and would be [regarded as a Sunni] capitulation to Iran's militarist actions in the region".

The UK newspaper The Scotsman on Nov. 30 quoted an "official Arab source" as saying: "Saudi Arabia is worried about Iran imposing its political agenda on the region. We don't want Iran and its allies to have a free hand. Iran knows that it is vulnerable and that Saudi Arabia has the upper hand [through the oil weapon] and maintains real weight and power". The Scotsman quoted a "Western diplomat based in the Saudi capital", Riyadh, as saying Saudi Arabia was already funding Sunni tribes in Iraq. Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter and a close ally of the US, fears Shi'ite Iran has been gaining influence since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

However, Obaid was subsequently dismissed as an adviser to the Saudi government. But he was also said to be an adviser to the Saudi Ambassador to the US, Prince Turki al-Faisal, who more recently resigned his post and left Washington. Prince Saud confirmed the resignation of Prince Turki, his half-brother, on the basis of personal reasons. He praised Prince Turki's contributions in the service of the kingdom during his tenure.

Asked about the possibility of Prince Turki becoming his successor, Prince Saud replied jokingly: "If the royal highness is coming to take my post, then he should be ready for a fight".

Prince Saud welcomed Iran's offer to assist GCC countries to develop nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, saying: "We are against proliferation of nuclear weapons".