Saudis Brace For Turbulence As They Try To Exit From The Wahhabi Time Zone:.

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NICOSIA - The Saudi royal family is bracing for trouble in the months ahead because of increasing friction between two conflicting time zones in which the ruling superstructure operates. Those functioning by the Western time zone want to rebuild the relationship with the US to the way it was before Sept. 11, 2001, but are in the difficult situation of having to choose between Saddam Hussein and President George W. Bush. Those operating in the Wahhabi time zone, viewing America as the source of problems facing the entire Islamic World, are keen to put Saudi Arabia on a path different from the one it has followed for the past five decades.

The royal family, or House of Saud, is well aware that the Wahhabi time zone would boost its standing in the kingdom when a war with Saddam's Iraq begins. This is why the leading figures in the House of Saud are on edge, as shown during the recent Arab summit when Crown Prince Abdullah Ibn Abdel Aziz blasted Libyan leader Col. Qadhafi for suggesting Saudi Arabia had sealed "a pact with the devil" by inviting US troops into the kingdom during the last Gulf war (see News Service No. 10).

To some extent, the Riyadh government has insulated itself from criticism through public statements opposing an attack on Iraq, and by insisting that it is not letting its bases be used as a launch pad for military offensives. The government has said it is allowing US troops to use two northern airfields - one near the Iraqi border at Arar and the other at Tabuk - only for defensive purposes or to prepare for a flood of refugees. Defence Minister Prince Sultan Ibn Abdel Aziz on March 9 acknowledged the presence of US troops at an airport in the northern town of Arar and said joint military exercises were taking place at Tabuk, which is also near the Jordanian and Iraqi borders. He said these deployments were for defensive purposes.

Radical Wahhabi elements in the kingdom are not satisfied by such explanations. Prominent hardline Wahhabi theologian Shaikh Salman Ibn Fahd Al Awdah in early March issued a fatwa that declared: "No individual, group of persons, or state is permitted to give any kind of help to strike and destroy Iraq and kill its people, not by word, action, logistical support, gesture, or implied consent. A Muslim's duty is to seek to prevent anything like this from happening and to use any feasible method to prevent its occurrence". The fatwa asserted that it was a shame for some parties "to work hand in hand with the invading colonialists out of greed and to obtain transient worldly gains, such as getting a share of power". Through such comments, the fatwa indirectly targets the Saudi royal family, even though its level of co-operation is not comparable to the situation during Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm in 1990-91.

Shaikh Al Awdah, who was jailed by the authorities along with another hardline theologian Safar Al Hawali, from 1994 to 1999, issued the fatwa in response to questions put to him by soldiers from the six Arab Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states who were asked to deploy in Kuwait in order to defend the emirate in the event of a war against Iraq. Al Awdah had a strong influence on Osama Bin Ladin, developed during the early 1990s. Since his release in June 1999, the theologian has travelled overseas, and the fact that he continues to take anti-government positions - albeit carefully camouflaged - from within the kingdom indicates that he has powerful backers among the Wahhabi elite whom the royal family does not wish to antagonise. This is partly because of the potential for domestic unrest if Al Awdah is arrested and partly because of tensions between the progressive and conservative wings of the royal family on issues ranging from succession to the ailing King Fahd Ibn Abdel Aziz to the question of political reform.

The conservative faction, which is led by Crown Prince Abdullah, may seek the support of the Wahhabi religious leaders (ulema) in the event that the succession is not as smooth as expected. In this context, APS sources note that Crown Prince Abdullah is more reform-oriented than the full-brothers of King Fahd like Defence Minister Prince Sultan, Interior Minister Prince Nayef, and Governor of Riyadh Prince Salman.

Abdullah's tendency towards political reform was demonstrated through two developments this year: (1) the proposal for a new "Arab Charter", which called for "internal reform and enhanced political participation in the Arab countries"; and (2) a petition signed by 104 Saudi intellectuals and presented to Abdullah on Jan. 22 which calls for a constitution and bill of rights, among other things, demands which would have been unthinkable two years ago.

The Arab Charter proposal was to be presented at the Arab Summit, held in Sharm Al Shaikh on March 1-2, but was deferred in view of the focus on Iraq. The intellectuals' petition was well received by Abdullah, who summoned about 40 of them for a meeting on Jan. 23, one day after the petition was presented. Attendees described his attitude towards the demands as "favourable".

The petitioners, who included businessmen and professors, Sunni and Shiite, technocrats and moderate religious leaders, proposed: an elected legislature rather than the current Shura Council which is appointed by the king; local and regional elections; an independent judiciary; and a royal guarantee of "freedom of expression, association, assembly, the right to vote and to participate, and all other human rights". They also suggested full rights for women within the Shariah tradition. The petition urged the royal family to "confront financial corruption, widespread bribery and the abuse of official power". Some observers speculated that local elections may be held within the next year, and at least part of the Shura Council would be elected by 2005.

In the meantime, the government is going on the offensive on some fronts against radical elements, who include sympathisers of Osama Bin Ladin and Al Qaida. Prince Bandar Ibn Sultan, the long-standing Saudi Ambassador to the US, has been openly condemning radical Wahhabis in Washington circles. While such criticism was not unexpected in the current climate, the way in which Bandar criticised the extremist Wahhabis went "beyond the norm" and could worsen frictions between the two time zones.

Earlier this month, Saudi authorities called for a ban on T-shirts emblazoned with Bin Ladin's face and a picture of the moment the hijacked planes crashed into New York's World Trade Centre. The Al Jazirah TV channel reported that the Interior and Commerce Ministries had instructed municipality and provincial officials to inspect local markets and confiscate the T-shirts. Currently, the authorities are detaining in the kingdom more than 250 Saudis and foreigners for suspected links to Al Qaida. It has been reported that, on Dec. 27, 2002, about 40 of those held at Al Rweis prison in Jeddah began a hunger strike and authorities eventually moved some of them to hospital for medical attention.

The Wahhabis are said to be providing financial assistance to anti-US Arab tribes in Iraq in order to motivate them to fight against American forces once a war starts. The Shammar tribes in Iraq are anti-US. The Shammar is a huge confederation of tribes spread all over the Arabian Peninsula, with Crown Prince Abdullah himself belonging to it from his mother's side.

A well-informed source in Jeddah tells APS that the US is aware of all these linkages and can be expected to apply pressure to prevent such assistance from undermining its efforts to stabilise post-Saddam Iraq.