SYRIA - The Challenge Of Globalisation - Part 16.

Syria is currently caught in a very tricky situation. With violence between the Palestinians and Israelis escalating on a daily basis, the options facing Damascus offer no room for movement towards a resolution of its dispute with the Jewish state over the Golan Heights. Simultaneously, Syria is in the cross-hairs of a US war against terrorism, and is regarded one of the countries close to the "axis of evil". Addressing the challenges of globalisation in this geo-political context is proving to be a tough challenge for President Bashar Al Assad, who also has to deal with internal issues related to the transition of leadership from his later father Hafez Al Assad to himself.

The focus of the Syrian regime at present is on developments in the Palestinian territories and Israel. With violence escalating in a tit-for-tat between suicide bombers and Israeli military tacticians, Damascus is watching closely for the potential of a spillover effect into Lebanon or Syria, which could trigger a wider regional war. In the meantime, it is also keeping a close eye on the pronunciations from hardliners in the US. Secretary of State Donald Rumsfeld said on April 1, 2002, that Iran, Iraq and Syria were behind terrorism, hinting that they could face punitive measures. Speaking to reporters at the Pentagon, Rumsfeld said: "Murderers are not martyrs... Targeting civilians is immoral, whatever the excuse. Terrorists have declared war on civilisation, and states like Iran, Iraq and Syria are inspiring and financing a culture of political murder and suicide bombing."

In this context, there has been speculation that a Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus axis may take shape in coming months if not weeks, in view of the strong possibility of a US assault on Iraq. Such an axis would feed into a growing convergence of insecurity among the hardliners of Iran, Iraq, Syria, the Palestinians and the rest of Islamic society. With each of Baghdad and Tehran increasingly facing tough threats from the US, there is concern in Damascus that it may be the next in line. While the regime has kept a relatively low profile since Sept. 11, 2001, its recent rejection of the Saudi proposal for full normalisation of relations with Israel in exchange for the latter's withdrawal to the 1967 borders generated some negative reactions among US policy makers.

Perhaps to balance the position on "full normalisation", Syria has carried out a redeployment of forces from Lebanon. The move is in line with the 1989 Ta'if Accord, and comes less than a year after a previous redeployment (in June 2001) and only a month after Syrian President Bashar Assad's landmark visit to Beirut. The 'Daily Star' newspaper of Lebanon on April 4 quoted a senior political source close to Damascus as saying: "The redeployment also came in line with the strategic defence policy shared by Syria and Lebanon against aggression of any kind".

After the death of his father in May 2000, observers expected changes in the Syrian ruling super-structure including political and economic reforms. Bashar, however, has proven to be an extremely cautious man - like his father - and so far not much has changed on the ground, although the language has become more in favour of liberalisation, at least in the economic sphere. It is important to note that economic liberalisation began at a slow pace well before Bashar took over.

With several key Arab governments having started macro-economic structural adjustment efforts in the late 1980s - including Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia - the Baathist regime recognised by the early 1990s that the East Bloc-style economic practices could not continue without posing a serious threat to stability. The collapse of the Soviet Union came as a wake-up call. Investment Law No. 10 was passed in 1991 was the first sign that Syria was shifting its economic strategy (see following pages).

On the political side, Bashar made his perspective clear from the beginning of his rule. On July 17, 2000, in his first televised public address after taking the oath of office as Syria's sixteenth president, Bashar announced to the Syrian people that it would be "impossible" for the country to become a Western-style democracy and called for "democracy specific to Syria, that takes its roots from its history, and respects its society". The implications were clear: no form of political change that challenged the existing Baathist system would be tolerated.