SYRIA - The Beirut Factor.

After 9/11, Sharon won Bush's ear by equating the Palestinian resistance and Hizbollah with international terrorism. He then went ahead with building Jewish settlements in the West Bank despite Bush's admonitions. Now focusing on Israeli-Palestinian peace and having won a second term in the White House, with Lebanon emerging half-way to a vibrant democracy or to another civil war, there are hints that Bush may seek to reassert his authority over a small but high-handed ally like Sharon. Beirut has emerged as a key factor in a changing Pax Americana, not only where Syria is concerned but also in respect of Israel's security requirements.

Lebanon's unity based on democracy seems to have become a priority for a changing Pax Americana. It appears, judging from the frequency of his pronouncements since mid-February, that Bush wants to show-case the vibrancy of Lebanon's democracy as a vindicating factor in his GME freedom initiative.

So just as the US will dissuade Assad from stirring up things among the Lebanese, there are indications that Bush may prevent Sharon from taking advantage of Syria's demise in Lebanon by pushing for a peace treaty with Beirut. None of Lebanon's opposition groups would be prepared for that, and all the main opposition leaders have said Beirut will be the last Arab capital to reach a settlement with Israel.

President Bush has invited Lebanon's Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Nasrallah Sfeir, to the White House on March 16. Sfeir on March 6 reiterated that Lebanon will be the last Arab state to reach a settlement with Israel. Lebanese opposition leaders have stressed repeatedly that Beirut will not adopt any policy that will hurt Syria's position regarding the Golan Heights - which the Lebanese insist Israel must return to Syria.

APS sources say Sfeir will explain to Bush the dangers which Lebanon will face if it appears to be co-operating with any power at the expense of Syria. He will outline the opportunities Lebanon will have if it is helped to work independently on strengthening its democratic institutions, under a new national unity government, after internationally-observed free parliamentary elections to be held this year. The APS sources point to indications that Bush is prepared to listen to the Maronite religious leader.

If all these indications prove to be true, they point to a major change in White House thinking, and a decline in influence on these issues among the pro-Likud neo-conservatives, who occupy key positions in Vice-President Dick Cheney's team and the Pentagon. In that case there would be a trade-off between the US and Israel.

The US is putting great pressure on Syria and Iran to Israel's satisfaction. But in return it is demanding Israeli concessions on the Palestinian track and on Lebanon. It does not want Lebanon to be partitioned, and an Israeli disengagement from Gaza and from four small outposts in the northern West Bank will not be enough. The Jewish settlers will resist being moved and might resort to violence but they will have to be defeated. The situation in Lebanon will be more complicated if Bush fails to prevent Sharon from taking advantage of the Syrian departure.

In due course, Gaza disengagement must be followed by West Bank disengagement; and an early sign of this must appear before long. In parallel, the US will have to make sure the Lebanese manage to strengthen their democratic institutions independently. US credibility in Lebanon is at stake and on it American credibility in Iraq will depend. This combination of American positions will be the real test of an "evolution" in US policy, which the optimistic UK Prime Minister Tony Blair has predicted. Unless most of the West Bank settlements are removed, there will be no viable Palestinian state and no peace.