SYRIA - Oct 21 - Damascus Pressed On Hariri Plot.

Bashar Al Assad multiplies his press statements in recent weeks, proclaiming time and again that as president he is sure Syria is "100 per cent" innocent in the February assassination of Rafiq Hariri, Lebanon's former PM. On Oct 21, however, diplomats around the world were pouring over the results of an international investigation that, in a damning political indictment, pointed the finger of blame for the first time at the Syrian regime. So sensitive was the report that Detlev Mehlis, the German prosecutor leading the UN inquiry, delivered to the UN secretariat late on Oct 20 that before it was released to the press a key paragraph containing the names of Assad's brother and his brother-in-law were deleted from a witness's account of a meeting on the assassination. A Syrian witness with close ties to Syrian security officers who served in Lebanon at the time of the Hariri killing claimed meetings were held in the presidential palace and were attended by Maher, the brother of and key aide to Assad, and Assef Chawkat, his brother-in-law and head of military intelligence. Mehlis's report, the result of a 10-week UN inquiry into the murder, is likely to set off a chain of events that could threaten the survival of the Assad regime, only five years after the 40-year-old president took over from his late father Hafez. As one western diplomat who has closely followed the inquiry put it on Oct 21. "He [Bashar] is completely cornered". Mehlis made clear he still lacked sufficient evidence and needed more time. UN Sec Gen Kofi Annan, has recommended that the investigators' mandate be extended for another two months. Western diplomats familiar with the inquiry said it would now focus on the role of Chawkat. But the Mehlis report said there was "converging evidence" pointing at "both Lebanese and Syrian involvement" and "probable cause to believe that the decision to assassinate...Hariri could not have been taken without the approval of top-ranked Syrian security officials". The document of more than 50 pages outlined attempts, including those by FM Farouq al-Shara'a, to mislead investigators, and said Damascus had to provide transparency if a full picture of the plot was to emerge. Hariri was a popular politician who refused to bend to Syria's will in Lebanon. His death provoked a domestic uproar that forced Syria to pull out its troops in April. But Hariri was also close to the Saudi royal family and a personal friend of the French Pres Jacques Chirac. His killing united Arabs, Europeans and Americans in demanding a Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon and an end to its interference. The implications of the Mehlis report, for Lebanon and Syria, will gradually unfold. But without decisive action from Assad, they could lead to much deeper isolation of his regime. It is accused by the US of supporting Iraqi insurgents and Palestinian radical groups, and Washington has been waiting for the Mehlis report to increase the pressure on Damascus. Oct 20 State Sec Condoleezza Rice, demanded "accountability" from Syria. The EU warned Damascus that it would "harm its own interests" if it did not co-operate with the inquiry. The UN Security Council is set to meet on Oct 25 to discuss the report. Syria, however, rejected the findings, calling the report "a political statement directed against" Damascus. In Beirut, the office of Emile Lahoud, the pro-Syrian president, denied that he had received a telephone call minutes before the blast that killed Hariri from the brother of a key figure allegedly involved in the assassination plot. Lahoud had close ties to four pro-Syrian Lebanese generals accused of planning the assassination who are in custody in Beirut. The immediate question facing Assad is whether he can afford to co-operate. Political analysts have long assumed that he would be willing to give up mid-ranking security officials but the Mehlis probe has reached uncomfortably close to family members. Moreover, Mehlis complained that demands to interview the president himself were denied. His report repeated Lebanese witness accounts that Assad had threatened to "break Lebanon" over Hariri's head. In recent months Assad has consolidated his hold on power, while perceptions of an international diplomatic assault on Syria have helped rally people around him. But unlike Iraq or Libya, Syria lacks the economic resources to weather international pressure, which could eventually include sanctions. Its oil production is small and steadily falling and oil revenues account for about half the government budget. US officials said Assad could still implement all international demands - on Lebanon, Iraq and Palestine - and escape his predicament. But Arab analysts feared top figures in the regime would instead close ranks and opt for confrontation.