SYRIA - Leadership Transition.

Of the recent dynastic leadership changes in the Middle East, the most challenging could prove to be the one in Syria, where Bashar Al Assad has taken over as president after the death of his father Hafez Al Assad. A legendary figure in the Arab World, the late president remains highly regarded for his firm views on peace with Israel and his capability to negotiate a favourable position for Syria in the most difficult geo-political situations.

Unlike the recently enthroned Kings of Morocco and Jordan, Bashar is the successor in a "republican dynasty", but one that seems equally as entrenched as the royal dynasties. Like Kings Mohammed of Morocco and Abdullah of Jordan, the new Syrian leader is seen as a modernising figure keen to take Syria forward through liberalisation. It is doubtful whether liberalisation will materialise in Syria at the pace wished for by the West, but it seems clear that Bashar has an interest in changing the way the country is perceived by the outside world (see following pages).

Internal stability in Syria will continue to be a function of the capabilities of Bashar Al Assad. It will largely depend on his leadership skills and charisma, or lack of them, whether Syria would be able to survive the various negative trends that are currently rippling through the Middle East. In other words, Bashar will have to be as much of a leader and a survivor as his father was if Syria is to remain a stable country, and perhaps more so if Syria is to progress and move in step with the global processes that are expected to be in play in the 21st century.

In terms of relations with the outside world, Bashar has already shown his different style. He has clearly indicated his pro-Western inclinations, and his belief in special relations with the European Union in particular. He is more outspoken about this than his father was. Bashar has visited several countries, even those with whom his father had strained relationships. Jordan is an example. Although his father had already set things in motion by visiting Jordan for King Hussein's funeral, the relationship between Bashar and King Abdullah is said to be that of friends. Abdullah describes Bashar as "a brilliant young man", "open to the West", who "wants to modernise his country". Abdullah visited Syria on May 21 - he was the last international leader to see Assad before his death - and had a long talk (five hours according to one report) alone with Bashar at that time.

Bashar would have drawn the appropriate lessons from the latest developments in the Middle East peace process. His father was long an opponent of Arab states making peace with Israel through bilateral deals - having always advocated collective Arab bargaining with the Jewish state. However, Palestinian leader Arafat broke ranks with the Declaration of Principles in September 1993. At the time, Hafez Al Assad had warned that Arafat would end up acting as a policeman for Israel in the Palestinian territories - and the situation before the latest round of clashes erupted in late September looked very much as Assad had predicted.

So as far as the peace process is concerned, Bashar will be very cautious. His handling of the stalled negotiations between Syria and Israel will not differ much from his father - and he is likely to follow the advise of the old guard on this question, and will accept guidance from the highly experienced Foreign Minister Farouk Al Shara. Bashar will not accept to make any territorial concession to Israel. He will insist on the position formulated by his father: the full return of the Golan Heights to Syrian sovereignty. At the recent Arab summit in Cairo he suggested that all Arab states who had initiated contacts and relations with Israel must cut back on them.

Bashar will continue to opt for the measured and cautious approach adopted by his father in his dealings with Israel. This means, given the current climate, the situation is not likely to improve anytime soon. Bashar has plenty of domestic issues to deal with, including in particular the economy, and he will not be keen to waste any political capital by taking any steps towards Israel which would be judged negatively by the old guard leadership who still remain in positions of power.