SUMMER FILM FARE LACKING IN HEAT; SEASONAL LINEUP FAILS TO FEATURE BLOCKBUSTER.

Byline: Dave McNary Daily News Staff Writer

The sizzle has fizzled.

With more than half of Hollywood's crucial summer season gone, it's clear there will be no blockbuster movie, no must-see event that galvanizes the country and jump-starts a studio's gravy train.

The three leading contenders to reach mega-hit status - ``Godzilla,'' ``The X-Files'' and ``Armageddon'' - have all significantly underperformed forecasts. And none of the movies set for release in the next month appears to have a formula that will attract the wide variety of moviegoers needed to turn a successful film into a blockbuster.

Which means the summer's top film could wind up being Paramount's ``Deep Impact,'' a less flashy version of ``Armageddon.'' After posting the year's biggest opening in early May with a $41.1 million debut weekend, it has done far better than expected with grosses now nearing $140 million.

If ``Deep Impact'' remains the top summer film, it would be by far the smallest gross for a summer leader since 1979. Typically, the year's biggest film is released in the crucial period between May and July. And of the top two dozen grossers of all time, only three - ``Titanic,'' ``Home Alone'' and ``Aladdin'' - were not summer films.

What's going on? Analysts say the key factor is that studios have miscalculated the public's appetite for expensive slam-bang action films like ``Armageddon.''

``What you're seeing is that the big event films just haven't been cutting the mustard,'' said Robert Bucksbaum, president of the Reel Source tracking service. ``Audiences seem to be getting too smart for a lot of the films that Hollywood's putting out. The date crowd is not going to action films anymore.''

Industry trackers are quick to caution that Hollywood is not going under just because its highest-profile products are not performing up to expectations. First of all, the summer has not seen an out-and-out bomb like last year's ``Speed 2: Cruise Control,'' which cost $140 million and then grossed under $50 million domestically.

Additionally, second-tier films like ``The Truman Show,'' ``Dr. Dolittle'' and ``Mulan'' have topped expectations and will each wind up well over $100 million. ``A Perfect Murder,'' ``Hope Floats,'' ``Six Days, Seven Nights'' and ``The Horse Whisperer'' have performed respectably.

``You get caught in the hype of the big movies and you start buying into it,'' said industry tracker Dan Klusmann of the Independent Marketing Edge. ``For example, there's nothing I could say to get my mother and my wife to see `Godzilla.' So when you think about it, $130 million is fantastic for a movie about Godzilla.''

But it's not so fantastic for a franchise. Studios have used recent blockbuster movies to create a product - or franchise - that will continue to generate money long after the movie is in the video bin. For example, Warner Bros.' ``Batman,'' which generated $251.1 million in its 1989 release, spurred one blockbuster sequel (and two not-so-successful sequels) and has been one of the most popular brands at Warner Bros.' retail stores.

Still, even without a blockbuster movie this summer, business through Sunday is up about $50 million from last summer's record-setting level, according to Paul Dergarabedian, head of the Exhibitor Relations tracking service.

``This summer's actually been great, even though there's been no potential $300 million film,'' he said. ``Even `Godzilla' and `Armageddon' have done solid business, but it seems disappointing because the expectations were very high. And we still have a lot of good movies left.''

At this point, however, only two films are viewed as having a realistic chance of topping ``Deep Impact'': Sony's ``Mask of Zorro,'' due July 17; and DreamWorks' ``Saving Private Ryan,'' out July 24. Both should crack the $100 million barrier, according to Bucksbaum.

`` `The Mask of Zorro' is probably the only major film left that appeals to all audiences,'' Bucksbaum said. Klusmann believes ``Saving Private Ryan,'' starring Tom Hanks in Steven Spielberg's re-creation of the World War II D-Day invasion, could be the summer's salvation. ``My gut feeling is `Saving Private Ryan' will be huge because it's really a high-quality film,'' he said.

Other contenders with some positive buzz include this weekend's two openings, Warner Bros.' ``Lethal Weapon 4'' and DreamWorks' ``Small Soldiers.''

PREVIOUS CHAMPS

The summer of 1998 could finish without a blockbuster. There has not been a summer without a film reaching $160 million domestically since 1988.

domestic gross

Year summer leader studio (in millions)

1997 ``Men In Black'' Sony $250.1

1996 ``Independence Day'' Fox $306.2

1995 ``Batman & Robin'' Warner $184.0

1994 ``Forrest Gump'' Paramount $329.4

1993 ``Jurassic Park'' Universal $356.8

1992 ``Batman Returns'' Warner $162.8

1991 ``Terminator 2'' Sony $204.8

1990 ``Ghost'' Paramount $217.6

1989 ``Batman'' Warner $251.1

1988 ``Who Framed Roger

Rabbit'' Disney $154.1

CAPTION(S):

Box

Box: PREVIOUS CHAMPS (See Text)