SUDAN - Liberalisation In The Middle East - Part 16.

Sudan is poised on the threshold of positive change. President Omar Al Bashir has managed to sideline his main rival for power, Shaikh Hassan Al Turabi, the former parliament speaker and the ideological force behind the Islamisation of Sudan since the late 1980s. Bashir has the support of the key countries in the Arab World in his moves to take Sudan towards a more moderate outlook. He has yet to indicate whether he would pursue wide-ranging economic or political reforms, but the former is likely because that it is perhaps the only way for Sudan to emerge from its current condition as one of the worst basket cases in the Arab World.

In terms of its natural resources, Sudan is one of the richest states in the Arab World. The biggest country on the African continent, it has a considerable hydrocarbons base which is mostly undeveloped, as well as a range of other mineral resources. But it has been unable to achieve its potential, largely due to ineffective rulers and a vicious civil war between the Muslims of the north and the Christians/animists of the south that has plagued the country for 17 years. So long as this war continues, Sudan will remain unable to move forward rapidly in terms of economic growth or to become politically stable.

Efforts to end the war so far have failed, but mediation continues sporadically. Militarily, a stalemate is in effect despite frequent skirmishes and occasionally bigger battles; neither side is capable of conclusively defeating the other. Meanwhile, the complexity of the war has increased considerably amid major splits in the southern rebel camp, one the one hand, and the lack of cohesion among the political groups in the northern side. Breaking this stalemate will depend to a great extent on the position of external forces, including the regional powers like Egypt and the global superpower, the US.

Observers say Egypt is playing an increasingly important role in rescuing Sudan from the "failed experiment" of Turabi, whom Cairo had viewed as the main obstacle in the way of improved Egyptian-Sudanese relations. President Bashir's moves to sideline Turabi were backed by Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak. The Egyptian leader had quietly lobbied the leaders of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries, during a tour he made in December 1999, to get their backing for his move to support Bashir's moves.

On Dec. 14, Bashir took the surprise move of dismissing Turabi, dissolving parliament and declaring a three-month state of emergency. His goals were achieved without bloodshed, and it appeared to have wide public support. Within a week, he paid a state visit to Egypt and on Dec. 23 Egyptian state TV announced the restoration of full diplomatic ties with Sudan. Bashir has reshuffled the cabinet to install appointees of his choice on Jan. 24. On the same day, Turabi was quoted by the London-based 'Al Hayat' newspaper as saying that he had met with Bashir ahead of a meeting of the ruling National Congress (NC) party on Jan. 23 and "affirmed that the personal factor (in their rivalry) has been erased and overcome" (see News Service Vol. 52, No. 2 & following).