STUDY TO PROBE RAIL LINK TO LOS ANGELES.

Byline: Jim Skeen Daily News Staff Writer

A state agency making plans for a high-speed rail system will study the potential market for trips between Palmdale and Los Angeles as well as economic impacts - studies that bode well for an Antelope Valley alignment.

Part of the California High-Speed Rail Authority's efforts to finalize plans for a San Diego-to-San Francisco rail system later this year, both studies are in areas that consultants for the city of Palmdale have argued would support running the rail line through the Antelope Valley.

``This is as important as the freeway coming to the Antelope Valley,'' Palmdale Mayor Jim Ledford said of the rail line, projected to cost $23 billion. ``This is the most important economic opportunity this valley gets in the next 50 years.''

There is a market for Palmdale-to-Los Angeles rail travel, Dan Leavitt, the authority's deputy director, said during a briefing last week at the Palmdale Cultural Center.

But the studies will help define how large that market is and how much passengers would be willing to pay. The study will look at one-way fares ranging from $5 to $20.

The authority will also look at regional impacts of such a rail system, including job creation and other economic impacts prior to finalizing plans for the system in December. The authority is scheduled to put its plan before California voters in November 2000.

Although a previous state rail commission voted in favor of an Antelope Valley alignment, that approval was conditioned on the region's ability to prove that it would offer greater economic benefit than running the tracks along the Golden State Freeway.

A consulting firm hired by the city of Palmdale projects that an Antelope Valley alignment would generate between $190 million to $479 million in economic development.

Supporters of the Antelope Valley alignment argue that the Grapevine alignment alongside the freeway offers little economic potential simply because of the mountainous surroundings and frequent wintertime closures of the Golden State Freeway.

If the rail authority moves ahead with a system approved by the previous rail commission in 1996, the system would cost about $23 billion. That is up $3 billion from the original 1996 estimate.

A more accurate cost estimate won't be available, however, until the rail authority finalizes its plans, including alignment, Leavitt said.

The 1996 rail commission had concluded the Antelope Valley alignment would cost $540 million more than the Grapevine alignment. The Palmdale report said the additional costs for the Antelope Valley route are probably closer to $419 million and, given the difficulties associated with tunneling required for the Grapevine route, there is a possibility that the High Desert route would be cheaper.

``The Grapevine Pass alignment has considerably more tunneling than the Antelope Valley alignment. Tunneling is the most sensitive cost component to uncertainties, delays and cost overruns, and is the distinguishing feature between the two alignments,'' reads the Palmdale consultants' report.

The high-speed rail project is viewed as a key factor in determining when it will be feasible to develop a major airport in Palmdale. The city of Los Angeles owns more than 17,000 acres on Palmdale's east side earmarked for an airport.

A high-speed rail service would make Palmdale a viable alternative for Los Angeles and San Fernando Valley airline passengers, officials say.

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Map: High speed rail

Gregg Miller/Daily News