STUDY: L.A. TO SUFFER TILL MID-'02 JOBLESSNESS ON THE RISE; HOME-BUILDING WILL SLIDE.

Byline: Evan Pondel Staff Writer

Los Angeles County will continue to feel the effects of a national recession through the middle of next year as a slowdown in manufacturing and tourism weighs on the region, a survey to be released today predicts.

Despite the lackluster forecast, Orange County's dearth in tourism will prove a serious impediment for the region's economic recovery, with the anticlimactic opening of Disney's California Adventure drawing little attention, according to the report released by the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp.

``We're a little more bearish about Orange County because of the tourism there and what some say is a real-estate bubble in the south county,'' said Jack Kyser, chief economist of the LAEDC.

Los Angeles County's unemployment rate is expected to rise three-tenths of a percentage point to 5.2 percent in 2001 when compared with year-ago figures. In 2002, the LAEDC forecasts unemployment rising to 6.3 percent, then falling to 6.1 percent in 2003.

Orange County's unemployment rate is expected to jump five-tenths of a percentage point to 3 percent in 2001, compared with a year ago.

Focusing on gross product, Los Angeles County will skate by recession in 2002, with an increase in output of 0.2 percent. However, Kyser said, for construction, tourism, small business and government, it will still feel like a recession.

``It's tough times for local government ... all having to unwind from that boom in investment,'' Kyser said.

New home-building activity, estimated to slip to 15,900 units in 2001, will fall to 14,500 units in 2002 with a modest rebound expected in 2003. Kyser said housing affordability and availability will be an ongoing problem.

Despite myriad hurdles to overcome the economic malaise, nonfarm employment will inch ahead in 2001 to 4,129,600 jobs, vs. 4,084,500 in 2000.

Kyser said the economy's paltry performance will not remedy itself until people realize the untapped investment opportunities. That translates to cultivating relationships with the business community.

``I've told people in times like these you need to communicate with the customers and suppliers because there could be a nasty surprise,'' he said. ``There are a lot of unexpected business opportunities out there.''

Nationally, the forecast anticipates the U.S. recession to last through winter, with technology and manufacturing sectors leading the decline. Kyser said the U.S. economy will rebound when firms find they have cut inventories so much that production must be raised in order to fulfill new orders.

``For savvy business people, they will take a step back to understand these things,'' he said.