STRIKE, DAY 100: 'IT'S NOT WORTH IT' BOTH SIDES MAY LOSE ONCE PACT IS REACHED.

Byline: Nicholas Grudin Staff Writer

They have picketed through a change in governors, smoke-filled skies, torrential rains and a magnitude 6.5 earthquake. And, as of today, they have endured 100 days without their regular paychecks.

The strike involving Southern California's 70,000 grocery clerks is the longest in the history of the United Food and Commercial Workers union, and there's no end in sight. Small groups of clerks have gone back to work while others have gotten new jobs after being on strike or locked out since fall.

For Albertson's, Ralphs and Vons, there have been heavy losses from lost business, and, even when the strike ends, the companies face a major challenge to win back customers whose shopping habits have changed.

``They have to come up with a plan B really soon,'' said Daniel Mitchell, a professor of management and policy studies at UCLA's Anderson School. ``It's not true that there are no options. They always have a choice. They could have worked without a contract. They could go back to work now without a contract.''

Economist Jack Kyser of the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. agreed labor leaders have almost certainly lost credibility with members. ``They misread the tea leaves, and now they're in an awkward spot.''

Union leaders admit letting the strike linger will only cause harm, but they add their latest contract proposal offered generous concessions.

``It's a Catch-22 - it's like self-destruction,'' said Rick Icaza, president of the UFCW Local 770.

Supermarket officials continue to act as if they've felt very little harm, despite mounting losses in dollars and long-term customers: ``We're ready to serve our customers for as long as the union wants to strike,'' said Terry O'Neil, a spokesman for Ralphs.

Officials for Albertson's and Vons did not return repeated phone calls last week.

On Sunday, the picket line re-emerged outside the Ralphs store in Porter Ranch, surprising the small stream of shoppers who insisted they've been staying away, and prompting City Councilman Dennis Zine to call on Los Angeles' elected officials to intervene.

One locked-out Ralphs' employee was collecting signatures for a petition to send to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

``We got to come to an end - 100 days is too long,'' Zine told the workers, who stopped picketing Ralphs shortly after the strike began, adding management needs to get back to the negotiating table. ``If I have to lead that crusade with my colleagues from City Council, I'll do that.''

At this point, employees and experts can't help wondering how much worse things could get. Striking workers are trying to support families on $140 per week. And companies are reticent to admit it, but face the danger that they will permanently lose market share after taking huge losses during the strike.

``This makes me feel like I'm in another country,'' said Sergio Sandobal, 25, holding a bag of canned goods outside a UFCW food bank in San Fernando. ``It's hard because we have two kids, and we both work for Vons. The unions don't seem to be helping.

``But I'm not going to cross the picket line - the more people who cross, the longer it will last.''

But others have not had Sandobal's resolve. According to many pickets, some of their co-workers, perhaps 10 percent, have crossed the lines at Vons stores, while others have given up and taken other jobs.

``If this lasts too long, I will start looking for a different career,'' said Anna Jaramillo, 40, who has worked at a Glendale Albertson's for 10 years. ``It's a life-changing decision - I'd have to just face reality and do it.''

The big three chains may have lost customers forever, which could amount to store closures when the dust settles.

``Once the strike is over, you'll see these grocery stores closing and consolidating,'' said Phil Lempert, editor of the Web site Supermarketguru.com. ``They're going to have to close stores and cut services just to keep up. And keep in mind that there's another threat out there called Wal-Mart. We're going to go from one crisis to another.''

The strike, which centers on health benefit costs and a two-tier wage structure, has persisted through several attempted federal interventions. At its current duration, it is entering landmark territory.

``There has never been a grocery strike of this size for this length of time,'' said Greg Denier, spokesman for the UFCW International in Washington, D.C.

The longest UFCW strike prior to this was in 1989, when about 10,000 workers struck Safeway Inc. and some other chains in the Seattle area - that labor dispute, also involving health care, was settled. No other major strike has surpassed 100 days, according to UFCW records. In the very worst scenarios, strikes in other industries have dragged on for years with no clear end.

The unions are not alone in their lack of foresight, according to grocery industry analysts. The supermarkets have already lost more revenue than their proposed contract would have saved them, and stores like Trader Joe's, Whole Foods, Gelson's and Sam's Club are thriving.

Shoppers have found better deals elsewhere.

``Before, I just did everything at Vons,'' said Beatriz Ortiz, 34, of Palmdale. ``But since the strike, I have started going to Sam's Club and found I can get things for a lot cheaper. It's changed my habits.''

Both sides' current strategies - to wait it out and increase the pain - will only serve to magnify the damages, experts said.

``There's not a really good short-term reason for anybody to give in,'' Lempert said. ``And the longer it goes on, certain retailers will just say, it's not worth it - we'll just close.

``When anybody closes stores or chooses to leave an entire marketplace, everybody loses. If there are less supermarkets, it's likely that clerks will have to change professions. It's a huge strain and a huge amount of stress for the workers.''

Nicholas Grudin, [phone]

nicholas.grudin(at)dailynews.com

LONGEST STRIKES

--2003-04: Southern California, 100 days, 70,000 employees, involves Safeway, Albertson's, and Kroger Co.

--1989: Seattle, 81 days, 10,000 employees, involved Safeway.

--1992: Detroit, 63 days, 8,000 employees, Kroger Co.

--2003: West Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio, 60 days, 3,000 employees, Kroger Co.

--2003: Denver, 44 days, 10,000 employees, Safeway, Inc. and Kroger Co.

FIGURES PROVIDED BY UFCW INTERNATIONAL

(major strikes of greater than 3,000 workers)

CAPTION(S):

3 photos, box

Photo:

(1 -- color) Cindy Modrak, left, and Ray Miller picket outside the Vons at Valihi Way and Verdugo Boulevard in La Canada Flintridge, as a shopper leaves the store with a full basket. The grocery clerks strike-lockout is now in its 100th day.

John McCoy/Staff Photographer

(2 -- color) Jaime Sandoval of Canoga Park picks up a bag filled with food during the food drive for grocery pickets at the UFWC in San Fernando on Thursday.

Joe Binoya/Special to the Daily News

(3 -- color) - Shopper Beatriz Ortiz

Box:

LONGEST STRIKES (see text)