SR use to increase slightly in Europe, Africa and Mid East.

The International Institute of Synthetic Rubber Producers announced its forecasts for synthetic rubber consumption in Western and Central Europe, the Commonwealth of Independent States and the Middle East and Africa for the five-year period, 1997 - 2001

Western Europe

Consumption of synthetic rubber (SR) in Western Europe is expected to increase at an annual rate of 1.4% over a five-year period, rising from an estimated 2,273 kt (thousand metric tons) in 1996 to 2,432 kt in 2001, according to the Institute's European section statistical committee.

In comparison, the 2,273 kt consumption figure in 1996 represented a decrease of 1.6%. This followed a strong 1995 in which consumption rose 3.8% to 2,311 kt. Highlights in Western Europe include:

SBR consumption (including emulsion and solution-polymerized material, as well as high styrene) for 1997 is expected to decline about one percent. This will be mainly due to the relocation of tire production from Western Europe to Central Europe, as well as a softening in the macro-economic conditions in Western Europe. Over the five-year term, an annualized growth rate of 0.5% is predicted. This should lead to a projected consumption of 611 kt of total SBR in 2001. Solution SBR is estimated to increase at an annual rate of 6.8% while emulsion SBR is forecast to decrease at an annual rate of 1.4% through 2001, although forecast substitution of emulsion polymerized material by solution material may prove to be too conservative.

Automotive industry production increased by about three percent in 1996.

Consumption of ethylene propylene rubber (EPDM) increased by 1.7% in 1996 and is expected to increase in line with the automotive industry with an annualized growth rate of 2.4% to 264 kt in 2001.

NBR solid consumption is expected to grow by 1.4% annually to 92 kt, mainly affected by growth in powder.

Consumption of polychloroprene rubber (CR) is expected to remain flat through 2001 with consumption around 60 kt. There is a chance that CR will be substituted further in the future.

Central Europe

In Central Europe, growth in consumption over the five-year period is expected to remain steady and high due to the partial relocation of the tire industry and a strong increase in local automotive production. Non-tire elastomers are expected to grow faster than Western European averages, with EPDM at 12%; NBR at 5%; and CR at 5%.

Commonwealth of Independent States

In the Commonwealth of Independent States, consumption of SR in 1996 was down by 7.2% from 509 kt in 1995 to 472 kt. The outlook for 1997 shows at best a flat growth rate. Estimates for 2001 are uncertain as industry activity is changing rapidly. The IISRP forecast will be revised during 1997.

Middle East and Africa

In the Middle east end Africa, consumption of SR increased by 4.6% in 1996 from 165 kt to 173 kt. Consumption in 1997 is expected to increase by 2.4% to 177 kt. It is expected to continue to increase at an average rate of 3.8% annually through 2001, with consumption of 208 kt.

U.S. antioxidant demand increasing 3.4% per annum

U.S. demand for antioxidants is forecast to increase 3.4% per annum to over 540 million pounds in the year 2000, valued at $1.5 billion. Growth will be stimulated by increases in antioxidant loading factors in the key rubber and petroleum markets. Additionally, gains will stem from higher performance requirements for plastic antioxidants, as well as expanding plastic antioxidant applications and generally favorable plastic consumption trends. These and other trends are presented in the new study Antioxidants, published by the Freedonia Group, a Cleveland-based industrial market research firm.

Amines will remain the largest segment of the antioxidant market reaching 226 million pounds by 2000, accounting for over 40% of aggregate demand. This represents a growth rate of 3.4% annually. Phenolic compounds will grow at a 3.6% annual rate. Rubber products are the primary end-use application for amines, and thus demand generally tracks growth in the rubber market. While the replacement tire market is expected to offer opportunities, growth will be moderated by slow increases in vehicle production.

Natural antioxidants will continue to be the fastest growing segment of the market (though from a much smaller base), spurred by consumer preferences for natural ingredients and value-added formulations in foods, beverages, cosmetics and pharmaceuticals.

Synthetic rubber consumption for Europe, Africa and Mid East

                           Middle East &         Western Europe

Type of rubber         1996    1997    2001    1996    1997    2001

Total SBR solid        61      61      61       596     590     611
SBR latex               4.0     4.1     4.1     116     117     120
Carboxylated
latex                  30.0    31.0    31.0     590     602     651
Polybutadiene          38.0    40.0    40.0     316     320     349
Ethylene-propylene      4.5     5.0     5.0     235     239     264
Polychloroprene         6.3     6.3     6.3      61      61      60
Nitrile solid           3.9     3.9     3.9      86      88      92
Nitrile latex           0.2     0.2     0.2      12      12      11
Other synthetics       25.0    25.6    25.6     261     263     274
Total synthetic
rubber                172.9   177.1   177.1   2,273   2,292   2,432
TPE's                   6.3     6.7     6.7     315     328     387
Sub-total rubber(*)   179.2   183.8   183.8   2,588   2,620   2,819
Natural rubber        198.0   203.0   203.0     948     959     972
Total rubber          377.2   386.8   386.8   3,536   3,579   3,791

                           Central Europe

Type of rubber           1996     1997    2001

Total SBR solid         145.0    148.0   177.0
SBR latex                 5.0      5.0     5.0
Carboxylated
latex                    10.0    10.0     16.0
Polybutadiene            40.0    40.0     50.0
Ethylene-propylene        5.0     5.0      5.0
Polychloroprene           9.0     9.0     11.0
Nitrile solid            17.0    17.0     20.0
Nitrile latex             1.0     1.0      2.0
Other synthetics         82.0    82.0     90.0
Total synthetic
rubber                  314.0   317.0    376.0
TPE's                    na       na      na
Sub-total rubber(*)     314.0   317.0    376.0
Natural rubber           88.0    88.0    130.0
Total rubber            402.0   405.0    506.0

(*) % Synthetic rubber tire usage excluding carboxylated latices: 1995-65.9%, 1996-66.5%. 1995 and 1996 figures are estimates, 1997 and 2001 are forecasts.