SR consumption to increase 4.1%.

World synthetic rubber (SR) consumption is expected to increase by 4.1% but will still be below 1992 figures, according to the five-year forecast issued by the International Institute of Synthetic Rubber Producers (IISRP). Consumption is expected to reach 9.4 million metric tons in 1994 and to reach over 11 million metric tons by 1998. This increase is after what experts agree has been a truly dreadful period for SR producers worldwide. World SR consumption fell to 9,027 metric tons in 1993 from 9,660 in 1992 for a decrease of over 6%. This steep decline is mostly attributed to decreases in Central Europe (13%) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) (37%). Western Europe, in a deep recession, experienced a decrease in SR consumption of 5.3%. Asia and Oceania sustained a second year of no growth.

"Although the downturn experienced in 1993 was significant, not all regions of the world shared in the pain," according to Conrad Jankowski, managing director of the IISRP. Jankowski added, "In 1993, increases in SR consumption were experienced in Latin America (2.2%), North America (4.0%), Middle East and Africa (1.8%) and the centrally planned economy countries (CPEC) of Asia (6%) (CPEC includes China, Vietnam and North Korea). In 1994 all regions expect gains in SR consumption."

The annual forecast is based on worldwide industry data compiled by the Institute's regional statistical committees. All geographic regions are expected to show gains in SR consumption over the coming five-year period. Major growth (over 90%) in SR consumption in the CIS is expected between 1994 and 1998. Growth of 34% is expected in CPEC of Asia over the five-year term for an annual average growth rate of 6%. Middle East and Africa and Latin America are expected to increase by 19.4% and 17.3%, respectively. Other major areas also expect to increase over the five-year period: North America, 14.1%; Asia and Oceania, 11.2%; and Western Europe, 10.6%. Annual growth rates reflect both recovery (e.g. CIS, 14%) and traditional SR growth rates (e.g. Middle East and Africa, 3.6%; Latin America, 3.2%; North America, 2.7%; Asia and Oceania, 2.1%; and Western Europe, 2.0%).

Over the next five years growth in consumption will vary by type. Styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR), both solid emulsion and solid solution polymers, is projected to represent 29% of total SR consumption in 1994 and experience a 3.3% growth rate. Polybutadiene rubber (BR) is expected to represent 16% of total SR consumption in 1994 with an anticipated 4.3% growth rate. Carboxylated (SBR) latex will represent 15.4% of SR consumption and is expected to increase by 3.7% in 1994. EPDM is slated to represent 6.5% of total SR consumption in 1994 and forecasts a 3% growth rate. Tires and tire products, traditionally the top SR consumers, will utilize 45% of the world SR production.

The IISRP also forecasts consumption of natural rubber (NR). Over the five-year term NR should experience an annual average growth rate of 3.2%. Jankowski noted: "Notable growth in NR consumption is expected to occur in the CIS where for geopolitical reasons SR consumption has been favored over NR. As the region trends toward a more traditional balance between SR and NR, 1994 growth in NR consumption (in the CIS) is expected to be 20% with a five-year average of 15%. Though we forecast growth to occur in 1994, there remains a high degree of uncertainty as to the timing."

The IISRP views thermoplastic elastomers (TPEs) as a "below-the-line" item in its long-term forecast. Worldwide use of TPEs is expected to increase from 768 thousand metric tons in 1993 to 1,031 thousand metric tons in 1998, reflecting an overall increase of 34% or an annual average growth rate of 6%. In Latin America, TPEs are expected to expand annually by almost 10%. North American consumption is expected to increase at an annual rate of 6.9% or 39% over the term. Consumption in Asia and Oceania and Western Europe should register annual increases of 2.7% and 2.5% respectively.

The IISRP is an international not-for-profit trade association with about 50 corporate members who produce 90% of the world supply of synthetic rubber. Its members are in 21 countries.