SR consumption at 10.6 mmt, 10.8 mmt predicted for 1998.

After increasing by 4.8% to 10.6

million metric tons in 1997, worldwide

synthetic rubber (SR) consumption is

forecast to rise by a more modest 2.2%

to 10.8 mmt in 1998, according to

statistics released by the International

Institute of Synthetic Rubber Producers

(IISRP).

The institute also forecasts that over

the next five-year period - 1999 through

2002 - SR consumption should continue

to average a moderate growth rate of

2.7% per annum for a total increase of

12.5% to 12.1 mmt by 2002.

The IISRP pointed out that of the

world's major consuming regions,

Western Europe recorded the greatest

growth in 1997, rising by an impressive

7.4% to 2,490 thousands of tons (kt). In

the lesser consuming regions, China

continued to experience exponential

growth last year, climbing by 12.1% to

975 kt.

Latin America increased by 6.8% to

690 kt, with Argentina leading the way

with a remarkable growth rate of 15.4%

followed by Brazil with 7.1% and

Mexico with 5.7%. Central Europe

recorded a growth-rate of 6.2% to 300 kt.

The IISRP noted North America

extended its economic expansion in

1997 with an increase of 3.7% to 3,186

kt, while use in the Far East slowed to

an increase of 1.9% to 2,290 kt.

SR consumption in the

Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)

dropped by 3.4% in 1997 as the

economic situation there seemed to bottom

out, according to the institute, adding

that many economists believe the

seven-year economic depression in

Russia is ending.

Where consumption growth rates of

elastomer types in 1997 are concerned,

polybutadiene rubber (BR) rose 5.8% to

1,744 kt, acrylonitrile butadiene rubber

(NBR) 4.8% to 306 kt, ethylene

propylene rubber (EPR, both EPM and

EPDM) 4.2% to 751 kt, polychloroprene

rubber (CR) 3.5% to 266 kt, and styrene

butadiene rubber (SBR) 2.0% to 3,032

kt.

Use of so-called other synthetic

rubbers, comprised predominantly of

polyisoprene (IR) and butyl rubbers (IIR),

rose 2.7% to 1,364 kt in 1997.

All geographic regions are expected

to show gains in SR use over the

coming five-year period, according to the

IISRP, which is predicting growth in

China to continue at almost 8% to

nearly 1,425 kt in 2002.

However, in the Far East, Asia and

Oceania, excluding China, North Korea

and Vietnam, the forecast is for an

annual growth rate of only 1.8% to

2,500 kt in 2002. The current economic

difficulties there have tempered the

growth in the region.

The SR industry in the CIS is

optimistic. It forecasts use to increase at an

average annual rate of 6.6% over the

five-year period to 619 kt in 2002.

Growth in Central Europe is almost as

optimistic; it should average 4.2% to

369 kt by 2002.

Consumption in Western Europe is

expected to grow more slowly over the

next five years. It is forecast to rise at an

annual rate of 1.8% to 2,720 kt in 2002.

In the Middle East and Africa, the

forecast calls for a growth rate of 2.3%

annually to 241 kt in 2002.

In the Americas, Latin America is

predicted to increase use at an annual

rate of 3.5% to 819 kt in 2002, while in

North America consumption is seen as

rising at a more moderate annual rate of

1.4% to 3,414 kt in 2002.

Use of all elastomer types should

experience growth over the next five

years, the IISRP states. BR should have

an annual growth rate of 2.2% to 1,942

kt in 2002, while SBR's rate should

average 2.1% to reach 3,366 in 2002.

EPDM should rise per annum to hit 860

kt in 2002, and NBR, increasing at

2.6% yearly, should rise to 347 kt by

that year. CR is expected to increase at

a less than 1% annual rate to 277 kt in

2002.

The IISRP also forecasts that

consumption of natural rubber (NR) over

the five-year term should rise 1.5%

annually, with higher than normal growth

rates in Central Europe and the CIS. In

Western Europe and North America,

NR use is expected to remain flat at

around 970 kt and 1,227 kt,

respectively, while in the Far East it should

increase at a 1.5% rate to 2,566 kt in 2002.

The IISRP views thermoplastic

elastomers (TPEs) as a below-the-line item

in its long term forecast. Worldwide use

of TPES is expected to increase from

1,005 kt in 1997 to 1,292 kt in 2002,

reflecting an overall increase of 29% or

an annual average growth rate of 5. 1 %.

In Latin America, TPE use is expected

to expand annually by 4.7% to 20 kt,

while in North America it should

increase at an annual rate of 5.2 percent

to 604 kt in 2002. In Western Europe,

it's expected to grow at an annual rate

of 5.0% to 430 kt in 2002, and in Asia

and Oceania it should register an

annual average increase of 4.2% to 205 kt by

2002.

The annual forecast is based on

worldwide industry data compiled by

the institute's regional statistical

committees.

      Global rubber consumption through 2002



                          1997             1998            2002

                      SR       NR      SR       NR     SR      NR



North America         3,047   1,083   3,237   1,181   3,414   1,227

Western Europe        2,292     959   2,522     950   2,720     970

Asia & Oceania        2,256   2,451   2,330   2,418   2,500   2,566

Latin America           649     291     712     289     819     335

Middle East & Africa    177     203     220     205     241     220

Central Europe          317      88     312      90     369      90

Commonwealth of

 Independent States     472      50     469      60     619      85

China/Asia CPEC         594     983   1,025     985   1,425   1,050

Total                 9,803   6,109  10,827   6,178  12,106   6,543

SR figure exclude TPEs; NR figures exclude consumption by producing

countries

                New rubber consumption by type



Product                      1996     1997      1998      2002



SBR solid                   2,973     3,032     3,077     3,366

SBR latex                     336       371       374       394

Carboxylated latex          1,652     1,749     1,787     1,955

Polybutadiene               1,648     1,744     1,784     1,942

Ethylene propylene            721       751       769       860

Polychloroprene               257       266       266       277

Nitrile solid                 292       306       317       347

Nitrile latex                  36        37        37        39

Other synthetics            1,327     1,364     1,390     1,501

China/Asia CPEC total SR      870       975     1,025     1,425

Total synthetic rubber     10,111    10,595    10,827    12,106

Natural rubber              5,865     6,081     6,178     6,543

Total new rubber           15,976    16,676    17,005    18,649

Synthetic percent           63.3%     63.5%     63.7%     64.9%

TPEs                          948     1,005      1,06     1,292