SPRING'S COMINGS AND GOINGS CRUCIAL TO MADNESS NEXT MARCH.

Byline: BILLY WITZ

It won't be until mid-October that a young man's fancy turns to thoughts of college basketball, but don't think the next six months won't have an impact on what happens next spring.

Consider that this time last year, Carmelo Anthony was still waiting for a qualifying test score. If he didn't get it, he'd be in the NBA now and Jim Boeheim would be on the phone with Roy Williams, asking what it felt like to finally win a national title.

So, as you can see, national titles are won in April and sometimes won the following April as well.

Here are four off-season stories that will have the biggest impact on next season:

--The North Carolina job. Roy Williams, who might be more inclined to stay put with the firing Wednesday of Kansas athletic director Al Bohl, will be a Final Four contender at Chapel Hill or Lawrence. If Williams stays put, UNC might make a run at Tubby Smith, who also could leave for the NBA. Whoever gets the job, it probably will set off a domino effect in the coaching industry.

--Michigan sanctions. The Wolverines, who self-imposed a tournament ban this year and took down the banners earned by the Fab Five, are waiting to see whether the NCAA metes out more punishment next month. If so, it's bad news for Georgia and Fresno State down the line. If not, the Wolverines have the talent to get to the Sweet 16, perhaps beyond.

--Marquis Estill's homework. If the Kentucky center earns his degree by the end of the summer, he'll get his freshman year back. If he does, the Wildcats look a lot like the team that won 26 in a row - even if Smith isn't in Lexington to see it.

--Whether T.J. Ford goes pro. If the Texas sophomore realizes his stock would skyrocket with a jump shot (the odds on that are even lower than his shooting percentage), the Longhorns - who return everyone else - are the preseason No. 1. Oh, and another thing: the Final Four is at the Alamodome.

Thus, Ford's decision to stay or go could have as big an impact as Anthony's did this season.

Expected to join Anthony in the draft in June are a bevy of other underclassmen whose teams' fortunes will have to be ratcheted down several steps: Oregon's Luke Ridnour, Marquette's Dwyane Wade and Central Michigan's Chris Kaman. Notre Dame's Chris Thomas and St. Joseph's Jameer Nelson are considering joining them.

Those who stay, their teams will be in the Top 25. Those who don't, their teams won't.

If subtractions affect the sum, so does addition. If there isn't another Anthony in the bunch of newcomers, here are three who could have the biggest impact:

--Arizona point guard Mustafa Shakur. The best of an outstanding class of Pacific-10 Conference freshman point guards, he's all things his predecessor (Jason Gardner) wasn't. Namely, he's 6-foot-3 and gets the ball to the right people.

--Duke small forward Luol Deng. At 6-8, the closest thing to ``The Next Carmelo.'' He could be Duke's best player next season.

--Oklahoma point guard Andrew Lavender. A 5-7 dynamo, Lavender steps in to replace Quannas White on a team that, despite losing Hollis Price, Ebi Ere and White, has enough young talent for another deep tournament run.

In the meantime, before the coaching carousel stops, defections to the NBA begin and class is dismissed, here's an early look at next year's top 10:

10. Syracuse. No 'Melo, but Orangemen still have Gerry McNamara, Hakim Warrick, Josh Pace, Craig Forth and Billy Edelin - enough to crack the top 10.

9. Gonzaga. If Mark Few is disappointed he didn't get the UCLA job, it won't linger. The Zags lose only Winston Brooks and Zach Gourde and welcome Washington transfer and big-time athlete Erroll Knight along with three talented freshmen.

8. North Carolina. The Tar Heels return the same players who beat Florida, Stanford, UConn, Duke and Maryland this year, and they'll have a better coach.

7. Kentucky. If Estill isn't back, add a ``1'' in front of their ranking. Again, this will be a team whose whole is greater than the sum of its parts.

6. Wisconsin. Kirk Penney is gone, but all the other coins are in the pocket, including freshman center Brian Butch, a McDonald's All-American.

5. Kansas. If the Jayhawks can lose Drew Gooden and Wayne Simien and return to the Final Four, can't they do it without Nick Collison and Kirk Hinrich? Three starters are back, as are the injured Simien and star recruits center David Padgett and wing J.R. Giddens. The only question is, will Roy be?

4. Missouri. The Tigers, who pushed Marquette harder than anyone else in the Midwest Regional, return everyone and add high-scoring VMI transfer Jason Conley.

3. Connecticut. Nation's most menacing big man, Emeka Okafor-getaboutcominginherewiththat. Is there a better scorer than Ben Gordon?

2. Duke. Eight McDonald's All-Americans. McNuff said.

1. Michigan State. No point guard? No problem. The best tournament coach in the business, Tom Izzo, has talent up the Kalamazoo - Paul Davis, Chris Hill and Kelvin Torbert are future pros, along with Shannon Brown, the nation's best freshman off-guard.

The Spartans almost got to the Final Four this year, anyway, losing to Texas in the South Regional final in San Antonio, thus providing them with motivation and a ready-made rallying cry for a return trip a year from now: Remember the Alamodome.