SPECIES LOSING RACE FOR SURVIVAL.

Byline: Charles F. Bostwick Staff Writer

PALMDALE - The federal government has spent more than $100 million over the past 13 years to protect the desert tortoise from extinction, but there's no evidence the money and effort have done any good.

Government agencies have bought hundreds of thousands of acres of California desert as tortoise sanctuaries. They have restricted livestock grazing and off-road vehicles on additional thousands of acres. Even tiny fences have been installed along desert highways to keep tortoises from being run over.

But experts say they have no doubt the tortoise is dying off - in some places, very rapidly.

``The tortoise is in a steep decline,'' said Daniel Patterson, a desert ecologist with the Center for Biological Diversity, who blames the government for delaying cattle-grazing bans and other measures to protect tortoises. ``There's no doubt in my mind, and I don't think there's any doubt in most scientists' minds.''

Analysts in the General Accounting Office, the investigative arm of Congress, say even government managers don't know if attempts at protection are having any positive effect or, except in scattered study plots, if tortoise numbers are going up or down.

``Unless research is focused on determining if restrictions and other protective actions are effective, managers cannot demonstrate a scientific basis for deciding whether restrictions should remain unchanged (or) be strengthened or if other actions would be more appropriate,'' a GAO report says.

In some areas, tortoise populations are barely 10 percent of what they were even two decades ago.

In a study plot in the Chemehuevi Valley in eastern San Bernardino County, researchers counted 257 desert tortoises in 1988 and 235 in 1992.

In 1999, researchers found only 38, but they found the shells or skeletons of at least 327 tortoises, most of which appeared to have died in the preceding seven years.

Near the town of Goffs, west of Needles on old U.S. Highway 66, only 30 tortoises, plus 393 skeletons or shells, were counted in 2000 in a study plot that contained 296 tortoises in 1980 and 220 in 1990.

The $100 million-plus spent since 1989 - about $37 million of it to buy desert land - puts the federal price to try to protect the desert tortoise in seventh place among such campaigns - just behind spending to protect the bald eagle.

The restrictions have angered ranchers and off-roaders, and the GAO analysts could not estimate how much the restrictions have cost city and county governments, developers or private landowners.

``They don't even know what the impacts are,'' said California Association of 4-Wheel Drive Clubs representative Jeri Ferguson.

Tortoises are dying in places like the Chemehuevi Valley where there are few human visitors other than an occasional rock hound, she said. Visiting the area three years ago, she saw no other people but many tortoise carcasses.

``I could be out there for a week and not see another person,'' Ferguson said.

Scientists aren't sure what's killing the tortoises, which face many threats: a deadly respiratory disease blamed on pet tortoises let loose in the desert, environmental pollutants such as lead and cadmium, off-road vehicles and Army tanks, loss of habitat to urban development and even migrant ravens that eat soft-shell babies.

``Things are not looking good,'' said Ray Bransfield, a U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service biologist, who believes that most Mojave Desert tortoises are in fact dying of disease or a combination of diseases, as well as other conditions.

``People crushing tortoises with their vehicles is not the greatest problem right now. There is something getting inside them.

``You can get the top-10 tortoise researchers together, and they are all going to agree there is a problem,'' Bransfield added. ``They're not going to be able to say this is what's doing it - other than it's related to man. They might not even agree on that.''

Scientifically called gopherus agassizii, desert tortoises were labeled an endangered species by the federal government under an emergency designation in 1989. The permanent designation was changed the next year to threatened, which means a species is not in imminent danger of extinction but is likely to become so in the foreseeable future.

Equipped with thick legs and stout claws that let it burrow into desert soil to escape the heat, the tortoise is adapted to its harsh environment. Getting its moisture from the plants it eats, it can go for years without drinking.

Tortoises can live well over 50 years and do not begin having young until age 14 to 20. That complicates recovery efforts because it takes decades to produce a new generation.

In 2001, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service began a monitoring effort to develop an overall population estimate. That will take five years and $7.5 million to complete, analysts said.

It will cost an additional $1.5 million every year to monitor tortoise numbers.

``Before the tortoise may be considered for removal from the list of threatened or endangered species, a scientifically credible monitoring plan must show that the population has increased or remained stable for at least 25 years (one generation of desert tortoises),'' the GAO report says.

CAPTION(S):

3 photos, box, 2 maps

Photo:

(1 -- color) A tortoise is a land-dwelling turtle wit high domed shell and columnar, elephant shaped hind legs. Tortoises go to water only to drink or bathe.

(2 -- color) Habitat

(3 -- color) Predators

Box:

TROUBLED TORTOISE

SOURCES: Desert Tortoise Preserve Committee, Inc.; Tortoise Tracks; Mojave Desert

Map:

(1) Desert Tortoise Ranges

(2) Desert Tortoise Natural Area