SOUTHLAND'S GROWING PAINS; BUSINESS, TRANSPORTATION SOLUTIONS NEEDED TO HANDLE LARGE POPULATION INCREASE IN NEAR FUTURE.

Byline: EARL O. HUTCHINSON

A few years ago I could drive from my office in central Los Angeles to my company's satellite offices in the San Gabriel and the San Fernando valleys in about 35 minutes, one way. I'd barely have enough time to finish listening to one side of my motivational or language tapes. And I'd get there with my sanity intact. Last month I drove to the same job sites. This time the trip took almost an hour, one way. I ran out of tapes to listen to and much of my sanity along the way.

My only consolation was that I didn't have to do this every day. But thousands of other motorists do. They are stuck in what is fast approaching near permanent supergridlock on many Southern California freeways while going between home and work. Their nightmare plight made me shudder over the recent report from the Southern California Association of Governments that projects that by the year 2020, the population of Southern California will grow by the equivalent of ``two Chicagos.'' That means nearly 7 million more people in the region's six counties.

Perhaps to make us feel a little better, forecasters say that an earthquake, major recession or some other unforeseen cataclysmic event might make a few people change their minds about coming to Southern California and might send a few people already here fleeing to safer parts. But barring an act of God, or human folly, the population flood is coming and will heavily impact the quality of life in Southern California.

This presents a major challenge for regional planners. The horde of people could spawn monster traffic tie-ups on freeways and surface streets, strain water supplies, lead to more overcrowded schools, the gouging out of more hillsides, and the plowing of open land to build more housing tracts, mini-malls, fast-food joints and increased air pollution.

The good thing, economic forecasters say, is that 4 million new jobs will be created in the next two decades to keep pace with the population surge. The bad thing is that some areas such as Burbank, the South Bay, the Westside, Glendale and Orange County will add more jobs than residents. In other words, more new jobs will not be where the majority of newcomers reside. This virtually ensures that more commuters will be forced to spend even more time stuck in mammoth traffic jams.

Steve Sanders, director of the California Futures Network and a vehement slow-growth advocate, sees the potential danger. ``I am fearful if we don't change our assumptions about how people are housed and how and where they work and how they get around.''

There are two obvious ways to ease those fears. The first is to create more jobs near where people live. A recent survey in Santa Clarita found that the majority of the city's working residents spend more than a half hour daily traveling each way to their jobs. This is probably a charitable estimate. My guess is that many working residents who live at the western end of the San Fernando Valley, in Santa Clarita, the Antelope Valley, and the Riverside-San Bernardino area spend nearly an hour or more in their cars one way going to work.

Several of my co-workers who live in these areas leave for work before sunup and arrive home near or after sundown. Some of them have taken jobs that pay less and provide fewer benefits in order to work closer to their homes. Nearly half of the workers from Santa Clarita said they would take a pay cut to work in or near their city.

This requires hard lobbying of the Clinton administration by city and state officials, and Congress to establish more enterprise zones, increase small-business loans, and create tax incentives to encourage business growth and the relocation of major firms in areas where the population rise is expected to be the greatest. And since a major part of the growth in population will be among Latinos and Asians, government agencies and private business must make a greater commitment to invest in South, Central and East Los Angeles, and to provide more financial and technical support for minority business.

In Los Angeles County, 11 percent of African-American businesses generated 11 percent of all revenues for all African-American-owned businesses nationally. Nearly 50 percent of the quarter-million Asian-, American Indian-, and Pacific Islander-owned businesses, and more than 100,000 Latino businesses, are in the county. These businesses have enormous potential to create more jobs, and provide more services in local neighborhoods.

The second way to ease the congestion fears is to provide more, and better, transportation systems for people to get to their jobs. This almost certainly will trigger more debate and controversy. But those who advocate the expansion of the subway system will probably get nowhere. The massive costs, safety concerns, and citizen resistance has almost guaranteed that the line will get no further than North Hollywood. This makes the system obsolete almost before the last rail is laid.

The better bet is more fuel-efficient buses, an expanded light rail system and greater incentives by businesses and government agencies to get commuters out of their cars and into car and van pools. This demands a comprehensive transportation plan by business leaders, public officials and regional planners.

They have been warned that millions more are coming to Southern California in the next two decades. Now it's time for them to do their job and make sure that growth doesn't become glut.

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PHOTO A recent report projects that by the year 2020, the population of Southern California will grow by nearly 7 million in the region's six counties.