SORRY TO BE BEARER OF BAD REAL ESTATE NEWS.

Byline: GREGORY J. WILCOX

"Hey, it's Mr. Doom and Gloom," Robert shouted from his stool on Wednesday when I dropped by a local restaurant to get some dinner. "You're killing me."

He was referring to two stories I wrote for that morning's paper, one that noted foreclosures were getting to be a relatively good deal in this sour real estate market and the other about home sales hitting a more than 20-year low.

Robert has an interest in a Chatsworth home he's trying to sell, and the market isn't cooperating.

And, with an anniversary approaching, the outlook is about as bleak as the moon's landscape for just about anybody trying to sell a house or condo.

When this month ends, it marks the two-year anniversary of the start of the current downturn, at least here in the San Fernando Valley.

In October 2005, home sales in the Valley fell an annual 16.1percent to their lowest level for that month in five years.

That month, 998 previously owned single-family homes changed owners, according to the Southland Regional Association of Realtors.

"Properties will sit on the market longer, and that's not a bad thing (for buyers)," said Tom Carnahan, owner of Carnahan & Associates in Woodland Hills.

And sales have been falling on an annual basis ever since.

"For Sale" signs have become yard ornaments.

Prices are behaving differently, though that could soon change.

When the market turned back in 1990, the last big slide, prices also fell.

This time, though, two years of depressed sales haven't tugged down prices. For example, when this sales slide started, the median price jumped 27.3percent annually, or $128,500.

Even this August, the most recent numbers available, the Valley's median price rose 5.7percent, or $35,000, over the previous year, to $645,000.

Of course, the median reflects slower sales at the lower-priced end of the market.

But the current price level doesn't offer much of a buying opportunity, especially because it's so hard to get a home loan now.

There are signs that prices could soften, though.

Foreclosures are sprouting up across the Valley, and some are priced about 20percent under their last selling price.

There is also going to be a big foreclosure auction this weekend at the Los Angeles Convention Center.

There are 135 properties on the block from Los Angeles and Orange counties and the Inland Empire.

Of those, 38 are from the San Fernando, Santa Clarita, Antelope, Simi and Conejo valleys.

There are more foreclosures in the area than 38, but the research firm Geostat Advisory said that these kinds of properties now only account for about 6percent of sales.

That's not enough critical mass to push down prices.

It can certainly build, though.

Two years ago, Jim Ezell was president of the Realtors group and had been in the business for 30 years, so he's seen up and down markets.

"I would not write an obituary for the booming seller's market just yet," he said at the time. "The market is still exceptionally active. ... Gratefully, it's finally beginning to slow down to a more normal pace."

You can probably make the case now that the market has a terminal illness.

That's what the numbers that are already out for September suggest.

This week will bring more proof.

On Monday, the San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center at California State University, Northridge, will release its September sales, foreclosure and price information.

And Wednesday, the California Association of Realtors should release figures for September.

Sorry, Robert.

I'm betting there is going to be some more doom and gloom coming your way.

greg.wilcox(at)dailynews.com

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