SKIING WITH LA NINA; REPEAT OF PERPLEXING WEATHER PATTERN BODES FEAST, FAMINE FOR WEST'S RESORTS.

Byline: Eric Noland Travel Editor

They've already begun searching the sky for clouds, squinting at the thermometer's mercury, poring over confusing satellite images on the Internet. All the while, ski officials hold their breath.

As the West prepares for the novelty of a second straight winter of the La Nina weather phenomenon, some resort operators are giddy over the prospect of a resumed boom, while others are braced for the prospect of continued bust.

Peculiar snowfall patterns were experienced last winter, and more of the same is expected this time around. That means:

There is a strong prospect the Pacific Northwest will basically get powder dumps normally destined for Colorado and Utah. Last year, Colorado resorts suffered terribly in the early part of the season, then had difficulty overcoming public skepticism when snowfall began to catch up late in the season.

The extreme southerly tip of the precipitation band is expected to nick Lake Tahoe and Mammoth again, producing the generous snow depths that the resorts enjoyed last year.

The ski areas in Southern California's San Bernardino and San Gabriel mountains will likely be left high and dry for a second straight season, forcing the Big Bear Lake operations to fire their snowmaking guns for all they're worth.

``The winter of 1998-99 was a La Nina, but there were leftover puddles or eddies of warmth in the eastern Pacific (Ocean) from the previous year's El Nino,'' said Klaus Wolter, a meteorologist at the University of Colorado. ``If you think of it as a fever, it takes a longer time for planet Earth to get over that heat.''

It's still trying to shake it, apparently. Jan Null, adjunct professor of meteorology at San Francisco State University, says that over the past 50 years for which good weather records were kept on the phenomena, only two other back-to-back La Ninas were recorded, ``so it's hard to draw conclusions.''

But for skiers and snowboarders in California, Null said, the prospect is for ``Tahoe to be above normal (in snowfall), Mammoth probably close to normal and, somewhere in the Eastern Sierra (Nevada), a break to below normal.'' Which bodes ill for Big Bear? Null chuckled and said, ``They can keep it open for skateboarding, maybe.''

For the most part, even the ski resorts that foundered last winter spent the off-season pressing ahead with their planned capital improvements, not letting their pursuit of the winter-sports dollar be unduly influenced by the vagaries of freakish weather patterns.

``It was a terrific year for improvements,'' said Lisa Bremner of Colorado Ski Country USA, a trade organization that represents that state's ski resorts. ``It shows the long-range commitment of the industry. A lot of these things are many years in the works, so you don't pull away from that after one disappointing year.''

Across the West, the improvements have followed common trends: faster, higher-tech lifts; expanded village environments at the base of the mountains; more options for families. There are also expanded and more exotic terrain parks for snowboarders, that important teen-to-20s demographic that tends to be as carefree with its disposable income as it is on an inversion maneuver in the half-pipe.

Last winter, it was clear that skiers and boarders simply followed the snow. In British Columbia, Whistler Resort registered its deepest base in 25 years - and experienced a 37 percent jump in skier visits from its previous five-year average. The migration of skiers from the U.S. also was fueled by an extremely friendly exchange rate (a U.S. buck bought more than $1.40 Canadian).

But research by Colorado Ski Country USA also revealed that the Rockies lost skiers to California. And why not? Lake Tahoe's six major resorts combined for an average of 561 inches of snow, a dramatic jump from their previous five-year average of 420 inches. Mammoth Mountain, despite a wild ride - early snow, dry times from mid-December to mid-January, then more than 100 inches in the final two weeks of January - wound up with a robust 422 inches, up significantly from its previous 10-year average of 387 inches.

Mammoth spokeswoman Joani Saari wouldn't divulge the resort's figures for skier days (one-day lift-ticket purchase by a skier or snowboarder), saying only ``they were exactly where we expected them to be.''

``We were a little nervous about the whole La Nina thing,'' she added, ``but it turned out to be a very good year. In this industry, you hear everything, but people seem to be predicting that it will be about the same weather pattern this year, and that would be fine with us.''

In anticipation of that, Mammoth spent the summer completing the renovation of its gondola, adding upscale accommodations (the Juniper Springs Lodge), expanding its terrain parks and replacing two chairlifts with a high-speed quad.

Mammoth also beefed up its snowmaking capability and is eager to put it fully to use. As with Southern California, the resort has been confounded by the uncommon weather of recent months - an unseasonably cool summer followed by an unseasonably warm October. It needs chilly daytime temperatures to make snow in earnest.

Lake Tahoe's prosperity last winter also gave that region encouragement to press on with its capital improvements, a campaign that will see $700 million spent at six major resorts over several years.

New this year are two high-speed six-passenger lifts at Squaw Valley USA, a significant increase in luxury condominiums at Kirkwood and an enhanced playground for snowboarding's lunatic fringe - including 13-foot walls - at Heavenly.

Young adults are driving many of the resort improvements across the West. Terrain parks are springing up everywhere. Base-mountain villages are growing, too, since this market segment tends to seek a broad range of activities when the day's fun is done.

But Carl Ribaudo, director of Ski Lake Tahoe, a marketing arm of the region's six major resorts, said the changes are not being mandated by the 20-to-30 segment alone. ``I think what you're finding across the board,'' he said, ``is that because of the high-speed quads (lifts), people are spending less time on the mountain. The quad chairs go up and down, up and down; you can get yourself pretty tuckered out. Now you're looking for something to do - hit the spa for a massage, for example.''

For Southern Californians who don't necessarily require a vibrant resort experience, the commuter options could be somewhat limited if La Nina's footprint matches last year's.

From December to March, the Big Bear area registered 18 inches of snow. At least the air was cold, though, which enabled Snow Summit and Big Bear Mountain - also Mountain High, several miles away in Wrightwood - to employ their extensive snowmaking operations to make up some of the difference.

The conditions were considerably less than optimal - hard-packed runs lined by snowmaking equipment, with dirt beyond the borders. Not surprisingly, attendance at the three ski areas was down a combined 14.3 percent from the robust El Nino figures of the previous winter. L.A.'s burgeoning snowboarder market prevented the season from being much worse.

``They represent 65 percent of our visitors, especially in years where we don't have a lot of natural snow,'' said Big Bear Mountain Resort's Judi Bowers. ``Snowboarders are more forgiving. They'll ride on just about anything.''

Genevieve Gunnarson of Snow Summit said that in order to make snow, the area needs several consecutive nights around freezing, followed by dry days with temperatures that don't climb out of the 30s - conditions that were nowhere to be found during a sizzling October.

Winter-sports enthusiasts who want to venture out of California might be encouraged to hear that Colorado and Utah won't necessarily experience an exact repeat of last winter's slow start.

Scientists report that La Nina's signature is a seasonal one, and does not have month-by-month characteristics. The University of Colorado's Wolter said that for northern and central Colorado, La Nina ``is actually a positive effect; it's just that last year the early part of the season was exceptionally dry. I would almost bet it won't be as dry this year.''

Colorado, having completed numerous improvements during the summer, can only hope for better fortune. One survey reported that the state's ski attendance was down 5.8 percent in 1998-99. (Another survey pegged it at 4.8 percent.)

One of the more intriguing developments for the coming winter is a sliding lift-ticket scale at Berthoud Pass - directly tied to snowfall. On a day in which the area gets four inches of fresh powder, adults will be charged the full price of $34, but if snowfall is less than four inches (or nonexistent) the next day, the price drops to $32. If the conditions persist the next day, it drops to $30, where it remains until four or more inches fall.

Elsewhere in the state, Winter Park has added a new base village, Steamboat has increased its luxury lodging, Beaver Creek has constructed a terrain park, Telluride has put in three new lifts (including two high-speed quads) and Breckenridge has installed a double-loading, six-passenger lift.

Farther west, Utah is coming off a surprisingly strong showing, given mediocre snow conditions through much of the season. The region, feeding off curiosity over its preparations for the Winter Olympic Games in 2002, experienced a slight increase in skier days - 1.5 percent, but nonetheless a record, according to Kip Pitou, president of the Ski and Snowboard Association of Utah.

``We had a huge amount of spin with the Olympics. People are finding out where we are,'' he said.

You mean the bribery scandal?

Pitou laughed. ``News is news,'' he said. ``It still creates excitement. This year, our bookings are up. We're looking to grow the market this year. We've committed to about a 20 percent increase for the season. I know it sounds nuts, but we've got to get the high bar up there. We've been sitting in the dust of our neighbors for too long.''

The ski area that has held sole title to that bar in recent years is British Columbia's Whistler-Blackcomb, which has become a fixture at the top of magazine rankings (Ski magazine, Skiing magazine, Mountain Sports & Living).

The resort is coming off a summer in which it spent $20 million in capital improvements, the most noteworthy being two new high-speed quads on Whistler Mountain.

Now, as the season begins to get under way, resorts throughout the West must wait. Wait for nature to cooperate in all their grand designs. Anticipating the degree to which that happens, they've learned in recent years, can be alternately exhilarating and exasperating.

No less so this year, apparently. ``The one joker in this whole game,'' said Wolter, the meteorologist, ``is that the La Nina might decide to go away early next year. And then all bets are off.

``It's very hard to predict.''

SKIING CALIFORNIA

A glance at the 10 California ski resorts that were singled out for commendation in the October issue of Ski magazine.

1. HEAVENLY: Lake Tahoe. New this winter: Enhanced snowboard terrain park, with Bombardier Half-pipe Grinder capable of constructing 13-foot walls. Lift ticket: $54 (up from $52). Phone: [phone]. Web: www.skiheavenly.com.

2. MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN: New this winter: Renovated gondola, luxury accommodations (Juniper Springs Lodge), express quad, kids' sports center, expanded terrain park. Lift ticket: $52 (up from $49). Phone: [phone]. Web: www.mammoth-mountain.com.

3. SQUAW VALLEY USA: Lake Tahoe. New this winter: Two high-speed six-passenger lifts, remodeled Olympic House, expanded sundeck. Lift ticket: $52 (up from $49). Phone: [phone]. Web: www.squaw.com.

4. ALPINE MEADOWS: Lake Tahoe. New this winter: Sun Kid beginner surface lift for novice skiers and snowboarders. Lift ticket: $50 (up from $48). Phone: [phone]. www.skialpine.com.

5. NORTHSTAR-AT-TAHOE: New this winter: Terrain parks modified to accommodate snow toys and beginning skiers and snowboarders. Lift ticket: $49 (up from $48). Phone: [phone]. Web: www.skinorthstar.com.

6. SIERRA-AT-TAHOE: New this winter: No significant capital improvements. Lift ticket: $46 (up from $45). Phone: [phone]. Web: www.sierratahoe.com.

7. SUGAR BOWL: Sierra Nevada west of Reno, Nev. New this winter: High-speed quad, beginner quad, sundeck, expanded beginner area. Lift ticket: $48 (up from $45). Phone: [phone]. Web: www.sugarbowl.com.

8. KIRKWOOD: Lake Tahoe. New this winter: Hotel (Mountain Club) and ski-in, ski-out condominiums (Snowcrest). Lift ticket: $46 (up from $45). Phone: [phone]. Web: www.ski-kirkwood.com.

9. BIG BEAR MOUNTAIN: New this winter: No significant capital improvements. Lift ticket: $32 (up from $30). Phone: [phone]. Web: www.bearmtn.com.

10. SNOW SUMMIT: Big Bear. New this winter: Extensive tree-clearing on every run, freestyle park. Lift ticket: $34 (up from $32). Phone: [phone]. Web: www.snowsummit.com.

ALSO IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA:

Mountain High, Wrightwood, [phone].

Mount Baldy, above Claremont, [phone].

Mount Waterman, above La Canada Flintridge, [phone].

Ski Sunrise, Wrightwood, [phone].

Snow Valley, Running Springs, [phone].

ON THE WEB: Information on ski areas in California can be found at www.goski.com/calif.htm and at www.mtnresorts.com (search California under ``states''). Snowfall information on Southern California ski areas can be found at www.snowforecast.com.

CAPTION(S):

7 Photos, Box

Photo: (1 -- 4 -- color) Last winter, skiers at Lake Tahoe's Heavenly resort enjoyed robust snow conditions and, middle right, spectacular views from the lifts. But at such Southern California ski areas as Mountain High in Wrightwood, the chairlift view was much different, far right, while dirt bordered the runs, top right.

David Crane/Staff Photographer

(5) It wasn't difficult finding uncrowded terrain at Vail and other Colorado resorts last winter. Anemic snowfall around the holidays resulted in business being off 5.8 percent for the season, according to one survey.

(6) In British Columbia, Whistler Resort is eager for a repeat of last year's La Nina phenomenon, which produced the region's deepest base in 25 years - and a 37 percent jump in skier visits from its previous five-year average.

(7) Most resorts throughout the West, including Lake Tahoe's Heavenly resort, spent the off-season enhancing offerings for snowboarders, a winter-sports segment that is experiencing explosive growth.

Box: SKIING IN CALIFORNIA (See text)