SIRIUS BUSINESS BIGGER STARS TURN UP THE WATTAGE IN PAY-RADIO FIGHT.

Byline: Fred Shuster Staff Writer

Bob Dylan and Howard Stern have probably never met or been photographed together and are linked only in the most fevered of minds. But the disparate duo are becoming the Lewis and Clark of satellite radio, with the hopes of two competing companies pinned to their respective lapels.

Big names are big draws for satellite radio providers XM and Sirius, which have concluded that niche music and news programming won't attract the numbers of listeners required to make pay-radio viable.

So, Dylan and Stern join a starry slate of satellite-fed marquee names that includes Ellen DeGeneres, Martha Stewart, Snoop Dogg, Tyra Banks, Tony Hawk, Eminem, Lance Armstrong and Martina McBride as behind-the-microphone show hosts.

Signs suggest the strategy is working. Sirius recently said it had topped 3 million subscribers to its 120 channels of commercial-free music, talk and other programming, with a gain of more than 1.3 million subscribers between October and the end of 2005. The company, which also has a Stewart channel and is paying multimillions to Stern, plays second fiddle to XM, which reached almost 6 million subscribers in the U.S. by the end of the year.

``The timing had to be just right to bring a name like Bob Dylan on the network,'' said Eric Logan, XM's executive vice president of programming. ``You have to have a critical mass of awareness, so when we do put Bob Dylan on, there's genuine growth.''

Critical mass has been reached. Dylan will host a weekly radio show starting in March on XM's album-rock channel Deep Tracks (XM Channel 40), featuring songs from the singer's personal music library, plus interviews, commentary and listener input.

``Songs and music have always inspired me,'' Dylan said last month. ``A lot of my own songs have been played on the radio, but this is the first time I've ever been on the other side of the mic.''

Though they're sharing the sky, Dylan and Stern might as well be on opposite sides of the universe. Dylan will be spinning stripped-down folk and blues music, while Stern will be spinning the bottle with strippers. Stern's attempt to shock may be schlock, but it's translating to dollars.

``XM and Sirius discovered you can't build a growing franchise on various kinds of music, no matter how good it is, uninterrupted by commercials,'' said Fred Jacobs, president of Jacobs Media, the largest radio consulting firm in the country specializing in rock formats. ``They realize they needed celebrity star power. And I think that's how they view the future - in terms of big events like Dylan and Stern. Because anybody today can do a better job of programming music for themselves than any radio station can. It's just become incredibly easy to quickly find and hear any type of music you might possibly want, in whatever order you happen to feel at the moment.

``So, if you can give people something they can't get everywhere - like programs headed by Dylan, Stern, Snoop Dogg, Tony Hawk, Eminem, Lance Armstrong - you might be on to something.''

What do those 9 million satellite radio fans actually get for their dough? In reality, competitors XM and Sirius are more similar than not. Both charge $12.95 a month for news and sports channels, right- and left-leaning talk, and a wide variety of music. And exclusives include Sirius with Stern, National Public Radio, and NBA and NFL sports, and XM with NASCAR, Major League Baseball, an African-American talk channel called the Power, and chefs from the Food Network.

``You can have every delivery system in the world, but if you don't have compelling content, none of it matters because you won't have listeners,'' said T.J. Lambert, vice president of ESPN Radio (broadcast on land radio and both XM and Sirius) and ABC Music Radio.

Surveys reveal unexpected results, such as the fact that once on board, subscribers have become fans of niche music genres, like bluegrass, soundtracks and jazz, that they previously thought they didn't care about.

Although the widely hyped technology is growing, it's still no threat to your familiar dashboard dial, which has 141 million listeners nationwide. But managers at local branches of Best Buy, Fry's, Circuit City and Radio Shack report satellite radio receivers, which cost between $50 and $300, flew off the shelves during the Christmas shopping period, bolstered by the forthcoming unveiling of Stern uncensored Monday on Sirius. Most were sales of car units, since the majority of radio listening takes place on the road (XM and Sirius signals can also be received at home and through the computer).

``Sirius is making a big deal about 3 million (subscribers) and XM with 6 million, but here's a better number - there are 1 billion radios in the U.S. and all you gotta do is turn it on,'' Lambert said. ``And, by the way, it's free.''

The final tally of how many of Stern's 12 million listeners will shift to Sirius is anybody's guess. ``It's all hypothetical,'' Jacobs says. ``If you flew to Vegas, there are probably odds boards where you can bet on how many people will subscribe to Sirius after Stern starts.''

While satellite radio's drumbeat gets louder, terrestrial radio is fighting back. Stations that once had Stern are now offering other male morning hosts, including Adam Carolla locally on KLSX-FM (97.1) and David Lee Roth in East Coast markets. Land-radio programmers are optimistic that 75 percent of Stern's huge audience will reject pay-radio and shift their loyalties to another morning show.

Meanwhile, thousands of terrestrial stations across the country have begun airing anti-satellite spots from such artists as Alicia Keys, Nelly and Brad Paisley produced by the National Association of Broadcasters that trumpet the message: ``Radio - you shouldn't have to pay for it.'' Locally, KLSX has rebranded itself ``Free FM'' on billboards across the city.

``It could be a windfall for terrestrial outlets,'' Jacobs said. ``Stern leaving land radio is comparable to Michael Jordan when he hung it up at the NBA and everyone predicted a big shake-up - and they were right. Radio has to go back to what got them to the dance in the first place - local programming that holds up a mirror to the community, and music programs hosted by DJs with personality.''

Radio, which used to be a simple high-profit, low-margin business that essentially flew beneath the radar and made a lot of people a lot of money, is now infinitely complicated.

``There are so many factors at play it's difficult for owners to get their arms around the problem,'' Jacobs said. ``Should they be streaming? Should they be involved in podcasting and in-demand? Should they go fully into HD radio?

``There's only so many hours in the day, and there are just a finite number of hours for people to entertain themselves. If commercial broadcasters grasped that inherent truth and if they could just become more risk-taking, all of this talk of a threat from satellite radio might be a moot point.''

Fred Shuster, [phone]

fred.shuster(at)dailynews.com

Star power

Here are the big names on satellite radio and where and when they can be heard.

SIRIUS

Howard Stern (6 a.m. weekdays, starting Monday, Channel 101)

Martha Stewart Living Radio (24 hours, Channel 112)

Lance Armstrong (6 p.m. Sundays, Channel 28)

Tony Hawk (4 p.m. Tuesdays, Channel 28)

Eminem (various times, Channel 45)

XM

Bob Dylan (debuts in March, Channel 40)

Ellen DeGeneres (6 a.m. weekdays, Channel 155)

Tyra Banks (9 p.m. weekdays, Channel 155)

Snoop Dogg (8 p.m. Fridays, Channel 65)

Tom Petty (7 a.m. Mondays, Channel 40)

CAPTION(S):

7 photos, box

Photo:

(1 -- cover -- color)

(2) EMINEM

(3) ARMSTRONG

(4) McBRIDE

(5) SNOOP DOGG

(6) STEWART

(7) DeGENERES

Box:

STAR POWER (see text)