SINKING FEELING IN OSCAR RACE; BLOCKBUSTER BALLAST FOR PRICEY `TITANIC' SHOULD GET ACADEMY'S VOTERS ON BOARD.

Byline: Bob Strauss Daily News Film Writer

It's Academy Awards predicting season again, also known as the time when we pretend to get excited about races that are already over.

Unless you've been in a lifeboat in the North Atlantic for the past month, you know that ``Titanic'' is going to turn the competition into crushed ice.

Are we really expected to drum up breathless suspense when the most expensive movie ever made has proven itself an emotionally pleasing, runaway late-year hit? ``Titanic'' is the ultimate vindication of the major studios' money-wasting, titanicker-is-better philosophy. In the year right after the Hollywood way of doing things was challenged by an almost-all-independent, little-films-about-people Oscar slate, nothing could bring more welcome reassurance to the moviemaking establishment the academy represents.

``Titanic'' will not only be the slam-dunk leader in Oscar nominations when they're announced Feb. 10, it's a sure bet to win Best Picture and Best Director for James Cameron come the 70th annual Academy Awards ceremonies on March 23. Expect nominations in most craft and technical categories as well, along with Kate Winslet for Best Actress and octogenarian Gloria Stuart, back after 50 years in retirement, for Supporting Actress.

Leonardo DiCaprio has a good but not inevitable chance to gain a place in the crowded Best Actor race. And if the academy voters have any taste left over from last year - unlikely, considering the woozy state overpriced commercial euphoria induces - they may refrain from giving Cameron's silly Original Screenplay a nod.

OK, we know what the big winner will be. The other Best Picture contenders are a litle less predictable. ``As Good as It Gets'' and ``L.A. Confidential'' are certainly headed for multiple nominations, starting at the top. James L. Brooks' redemptive-comedy-disguised-as-something-nasty boasts great lines, terrific performances and writer-director Brooks, who won top Oscar honors his first time out with ``Terms of Endearment.''

``Confidential'' is 1997's anointed class act, winner of all four major critics groups' Best Picture awards and heading the most top-10 lists. The only things working against the '50s noir spectacular are its ensemble nature - which is likely to limit acting nominations - and the fact that ``Titanic'' will win whatever races they compete in. I'll be surprised if ``Confidential'' takes more than the Adapted Screenplay Oscar.

While the fourth Best Picture spot should belong to Steven Spielberg's ``Amistad,'' there is reportedly a good deal of animosity toward the slave-ship epic. Writers, especially, seem sensitive to a book author's charges of plagiarism, whether they prove to have legal merit or not. Others don't like how the courtroom scenes play out, or that it's not making enough money, or that Matthew McConaughey's in it, or that it isn't quite as simple a depiction of historical good and evil as ``Schindler's List,'' or that it implicates white Americans, not just foreigners.

Of course, it's also an example of our most successful filmmaker working at the height of his talent and intelligence. This could be either a plus or a minus in a year when minimal thought and maximum emotional stroking seem the most award-worthy qualities.

Which brings us, somewhat ironically, to ``Good Will Hunting.'' Allegedly a movie about genius, it's really just a shrewd celebration of manipulative feel-goodery. Since the Hollywood establishment wants to feel good about itself this year, expect this independent-in-name-only production to cop a lot of nominations. These will likely include the Best Picture berth that truly challenging indies - ``Boogie Nights,'' ``The Sweet Hereafter,'' ``Deconstructing Harry,'' ``The Ice Storm,'' ``Oscar and Lucinda'' - are just too darn independent to be likable enough for.

If any other indies are going to make the Best Picture race, they'll either be the cuddly (and nonthreateningly nonexplicit) ``naughty'' hit ``The Full Monty''; the ravishingly costumed ``The Wings of the Dove''; or ``Wag the Dog,'' a political/Hollywood satire that may be too smart for academy tastes but boasts so much Oscar-winning talent that it has an outside chnace of getting appreciated.

Of course, previous winners and pretty period pictures and sentimental entertainments with foreign accents are traditionally catnip for academy voters. Some of those tendencies have given way to more rigorous artistic standards in recent years, but it would make sense if they rebound along with the love of epic expense this year.

Not all of Oscar's traditions are that bad, though. The acting categories should play out in an exceptionally satisfying manner this year, not in spite of, but because of the old voter reflex to honor someone who's due. Or due again.

Jack vs. Dustin

The hotly contested Best Actor field should be led by two oft-nominated multiwinners: ``As Good as It Gets' '' Jack Nicholson and ``Wag the Dog's'' Dustin Hoffman. Both veterans delivered their strongest, wittiest, most engaged performances in more than a decade. Both could also be considered the top actor of their generation, and so eminently worthy of entering the small company of three-time Oscar winners. I'd give Nicholson the edge; even if Hoffman is a tad more talented, this is one inarguable case for honoring the guy who's loved the best.

So many of this pair's contemporaries - Al Pacino (``Donnie Brasco''), Peter Fonda (``Ulee's Gold''), Ian Holm (``The Sweet Hereafter''), Robert Duvall (``The Apostle'') - did wonderful work last year that Best Actor deserves to be an all-grandpa race.

But it won't be, since there's young DiCaprio surfing the ``Titanic'' tsunami, Djimon Hounsou stealing the show from ``Amistad's'' flowery English speakers and Matt Damon, clearly the idol of actors everywhere for writing himself a showcase role as flattering as Will Hunting. One or two of these younger men should make the cut; sadly, the most impressive work from their age group, Mark Wahlberg's sweetly stupid ``Boogie Nights'' stud, is probably a little too potent for academy tastes this year.

Best Actress is shaping up as Helen Hunt and four Brits: Helena Bonham Carter (``Wings of the Dove''), Julie Christie (``Afterglow''), Judi Dench (``Mrs. Brown'') and ``Titanic's'' Winslet. Conventional wisdom says the offshore quartet will cancel one another out and our ``Good as It Gets'' homegirl gets the goods. But even more conventional wisdom says that Bonham Carter has served enough time in Merchant-Ivory purgatory. Without Emma Thompson outshining her for a change (``The Winter Guest'' is too much of a snooze, even for timid academy types), Bonham Carter gets her reward. The fact that ``Wings'' is her best performance ever might even mean something.

The Burt factor

I don't know if anyone really feels that Burt Reynolds deserves anything other than slaps upside his head - he fired his agent after getting him the best job of his career. But he is riding both a nostalgia factor and some uncharacteristically great work ahead of the Supporting Actor pack. Plus, he's the only guy who doesn't take off his clothes in ``Boogie Nights,'' making him the most palatable honoree from the artistically impressive but hard-to-take porn-biz epic.

Expect two outstanding portrayals of gay guys (Rupert Everett's in ``My Best Friend's Wedding'' and Greg Kinnear's in ``As Good as It Gets'') and maybe even a third (``In & Out's'' Tom Selleck) to register. More straightforward work from Robin Williams (``Good Will Hunting'') and Anthony Hopkins (``Amistad'') looks highly nominatable. Kevin Spacey is the likeliest contender from ``L.A. Confidential's'' starless cast. Danny DeVito (for either ``Confidential'' or ``The Rainmaker''), ``Full Monty's'' chubby Mark Addy and Sam Jackson's work in ``Eve's Bayou'' top a long list of outside possibilities.

Supporting Actress, the category where voters go a little nuts, is always the least predictable major race. ``Titanic's'' Stuart, ``In & Out's'' Joan Cusack and ``Boogie's'' Julianne Moore seem the most likely contenders, with ``Confidential's'' Kim Basinger, ``Good Will's'' Minnie Driver and ``Ice Storm's'' Sigourney Weaver not far behind. But this competition is traditionally so screwy, I wouldn't be surprised if the Lady Chablis, the real-life drag queen in ``Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil,'' gets a nomination.

Spielberg suspected

The Best Director race usually differs from Best Picture by one. Cameron, Brooks and ``Confidential's'' Curtis Hanson will not be among the unmentioned. ``Good Will's'' Gus Van Sant, who's expected to deliver much edgier stuff, might suffer from the perception that he sold out. On the other hand, this could be Spielberg's consolation nomination if ``Amistad'' fails to make the Best Picture cut.

This could also be the category where ``Boogie's'' Paul Thomas Anderson, ``Ice Storm's'' Ang Lee, ``Hereafter's'' Atom Egoyan, ``The Boxer's'' Jim Sheridan, ``Jackie Brown's'' Quentin Tarantino, ``Eve's Bayou's'' Kasi Lemmons or ``Wag the Dog's'' Barry Levinson could be recognized. But expect the majority of those films to be appreciated most by the writers branch, along with the carefully modernized adaptation of Henry James' ``Wings of the Dove'' and Woody Allen's lacerating self-revelation ``Deconstructing Harry.''

Of course, these guys could just as likely go for ``Titanic's'' screenplay. When the Oscars are driven by giddy success like they are this year, it's tough for voters to distinguish work that should rise to the top from stuff that belongs at the bottom of the ocean.

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Photo: (1--Cover--Color) TITANIC QUESTIONS

FILM CRITIC BOB STRAUSS THINKS HE KNOWS THE ANSWER TO `WHO WILL WIN THE OSCARS?' (Academy Award statuette)

A.M.P.A.S.

(2) James Cameron's big-budget ``Titanic,'' which is sailing toward the break-even point, is the favorite in the Academy Award race for Best Picture and Best Director.

(3) Jack Nicholson and Helen Hunt could strike Oscar gold for their lead roles in ``As Good as It Gets.''

(4) ``Wings of the Dove's'' Helena Bonham Carter faces stiff competition in the tussle for the Best Actress statuette.