SHIFTING SANDS OF PREDICTING THE OSCARS.

Byline: Bob Strauss Daily News Film Critic

On Oscar eve, you can just feel the anticipation reaching fever pitch.

How, Hollywood and the world want to know, will returning host Billy Crystal make his grand entry Monday night?

But after we see just how cleverly the world's greatest Oscar emcee kicks off the 69th annual Academy Awards ceremony, expect the suspense level to drop perceptibly. Although there have been enough 11th-hour changes in the major nominees' fortunes to keep the show interesting, don't expect more than one big upset. Or any, for that matter.

If you haven't placed your bets on ``The English Patient'' for Best Picture, you haven't been paying attention. True, a large percentage of viewers emerge from the swoony desert romance utterly unmoved; there's even been a ``Seinfeld'' episode about it. And let's face it, a lot more people enjoyed ``Jerry Maguire'' than have even seen the wartime epic.

But ``Patient'' has earned so many preliminary accolades, up to and including the bellwether Directors Guild and Producers Guild awards, that the picture and its director, Anthony Minghella, probably can't lose.

The acting races aren't quite as predictable, all but one of them having undergone serious adjustments since nominations were announced in February.

``Shine's'' Geoffrey Rush still paces the Best Actor pack, but a few obstacles have strewn his path recently. For one, Australian pianist David Helfgott, who Rush plays in the film as a tormented genius, is getting slaughtered by music critics on his badly timed North American debut tour.

Perhaps more worrisome for Rush is the snowballing popularity of a guy named Billy Bob. Thornton's ``Sling Blade'' performance, the least-seen of the five nominees a month ago, went on to captivate voters like nothing since, well, Rush's ``Shine'' job. Not only is a Thornton victory possible, but Billy Bob could split the guy-from-nowhere-playing-a-lovable-loon vote, which may just give Tom Cruise his chance to win one for ``Maguire.''

Should he lose, Cruise may want to consider switching jobs from biggest movie star in the world to actual agenting - like everything else, Cruise is good at it, at least as far as his ``Maguire'' protege, Cuba Gooding Jr., is concerned. Gooding has rushed ahead of Edward Norton in the Supporting Actor playoffs. Besides his exuberant, catchphrase-coining performance, Gooding is mighty attractive to voting members who still sting from last year's charges of academy racism. From any angle, the kwan is with Cuba.

There has also been a change of fortunes in the Best Actress race. Golden Globe winner Brenda Blethyn (``Secrets & Lies'') has fallen behind the Screen Actors Guild champ, ``Fargo's'' Frances McDormand. Though this category is seldom won with a primarily comedic performance, McDormand distinguishes herself - in both senses of the term - as this year's only nominee who doesn't blubber shamelessly. Besides, she said the other major movie catchphrase of 1996. You betcha, she's the one.

As it has all year, the Supporting Actress statuette belongs to Lauren Bacall. This should be a doubly satisfying win. Not only is the Hollywood legend long overdue (astonishingly, this is her first Oscar nomination), but she emerged from a movie, ``The Mirror Has Two Faces,'' designed as a showcase for its (un-nominated) director-star Barbra Streisand. And there's nothing the academy enjoys quite as much as sticking it to Streisand.

The writing races are both pretty tight. It's ``Fargo's'' Coen brothers vs. ``Maguire's'' overlooked director, Cameron Crowe, for Original Screenplay honors - advantage to the Writers Guild award-winning men from Minnesota. Conversely, the implacable Billy Bob is moving up on Minghella in the Adapted Screenplay race. But even though Thornton got the guild's nod for turning his short subject into the feature-length ``Sling Blade,'' it's doubtful ``Patient's'' strength has flagged enough for the homegrown contender to catch up.

In the craft categories, nomination leader ``Patient'' may need a gurney to cart away all of its Oscars. The film's cinematographer John Seale and editor Walter Murch look like sure bets. ``Patient'' should also lay claim to at least two of the following: Art Direction, Costume Design, Dramatic Music Score and Sound.

In the traditionally wayward, clique-chosen categories, ``Kolya'' will probably win Best Foreign Language Film since it has a cute little kid, and ``When We Were Kings'' won't get the Documentary Feature Oscar because it's the best film in contention. In both cases, I hope I'm wrong.

Meanwhile, I suspect my lack of enthusiasm for any of the nominees in the Musical or Comedy Score, Original Song, Sound Effects Editing or the three ``who sees 'em?'' short-film races is shared by most voting members of the academy.

If ``Twister'' and ``The Nutty Professor'' don't get the Visual Effects and Makeup awards, though, it's time to impanel a new academy. In a year when the voters quite accurately acknowledged that the studios failed to make worthwhile film art, it would be extremely ironic if the Oscars failed to recognize the two things that Hollywood did best.

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Box: (1) your oscar '97 ballot

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