SEATTLE RUE? SEAHAWKS TRY TO AVOID JINX PAST FIVE NFC CHAMPS FARED POORLY AFTER WINNING TITLE.

Byline: BILLY WITZ Staff Writer

When sitting down with pen and paper to analyze the Super Bowl prospects for the NFC, the best place to start is at last year's conference champion. Then draw a line through them.

The past five NFC champs wasted no time turning to chumps.

To wit:

Philadelphia went from a ``T.O. My!'' 13-3 in 2004 to a ``T.O. No!'' 6-10 a year ago. After a last-second loss to New England in the Super Bowl, Carolina lost Steve Smith and Kris Jenkins in the first month and any real chance shortly after.

Tampa Bay went from Super Bowl champs and budding dynasty to back-to-back losing seasons. St. Louis went for a last-second loss in the Super Bowl to, well, see Carolina `04. The New York Giants haven't won a playoff game since they went to the Super Bowl in 2000.

This bit of history would not appear to bode well for the Seattle Seahawks, who in February reached a Super Bowl for the first time in the franchise's 30 years.

Except for one thing: none of those other NFC champs -- and dare we say no other NFL team, period -- has had the great fortune of being in as bad a division as the NFC West.

St. Louis, Arizona and San Francisco combined to win 15games -- as many as the Seahawks won themselves, including playoffs. The Seahawks had it so easy they clinched the division Dec. 4, the day after USC clinched the Pac-10 title.

While the Seahawks will miss Pro Bowl guard Steve Hutchinson, they still return two other Pro Bowlers -- tackle Walter Jones and center Robbie Tobek -- to block for the reigning league MVP, Shaun Alexander, and the NFC's best quarterback, Matt Hasselbeck.

The defense, which led the NFL in sacks, should be better with the addition of Julian Peterson. But the best news, again, is the schedule.

Seattle gets six games in the division, which they won last year by an average of 16.7 points. If that weren't enough, they also have Detroit, Oakland and Green Bay -- enough right there for a winning season.

Whether they get to the Super Bowl again is another question.

Everyone in the East is a contender. If Terrell Owens has people talking about him as much on Sunday afternoon as he does the rest of the week, Dallas has the defense that's capable of the rest. The Eagles, rid of T.O., and with the best O- and D-lines in the NFC, and a healthy Donovan McNabb can get back to the business of boring everyone on the way to the playoffs.

Not so with Dan Snyder, who throws his money around -- Adam Archuleta, Antwaan Randle El and Andre Carter each got deals of at least $30 million over six years -- no more accurately than Mark Brunell. Still, with Clinton Portis, Santana Moss and defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, anything's possible.

The good news for the Giants is that LaVar Arrington only adds to one of the league's best pass rushes (good thing considering the state of the secondary) and that Tiki Barber never looked better. The bad news: the schedule -- Indianapolis, at Philadelphia, at Seattle -- means the Giants will have to learn how to play from behind.

Thus far, Keyshawn Johnson has talked a good game, but has Carolina brought on T.O. Lite? Either way, the Panthers at least will be more than Steve Smith on offense. The departures of Will Witherspoon and Marlon McCree will hurt, but probably not enough to keep them from winning the South.

Chris Simms and Cadillac Williams may be the future in Tampa Bay, but the Bucs have five starters on defense who are at least 32, meaning they're likely to sound like a John Fogerty tune -- old men down the road.

If Michael Vick decides to show up for all 16 games, who knows where Atlanta will end up? If nothing else, the signing of mammoth Grady Jackson should help the 27th-ranked run defense and John Abraham should put some teeth into a pass rush. The New Orleans Saints may be starting over, just like their city, but they'll have Reggie Bush in the backfield, and an entire region behind them.

The Chicago Bears borrowed the same formula as the Seahawks -- good team, bad division -- and won 11 games with Kyle Orton. The defense is back and Cedric Benson is healthy, meaning they should match that whether it's Rex Grossman or Brian Griese at quarterback.

Three rookie head coaches take over, but cleaning up the mess will take some time for Rod Marinelli in Detroit, Brad Childress in Detroit and Mike McCarthy in Green Bay.

In the NFC West, they know how you feel.

Adding Edgerrin James will help Arizona, but quarterback/father-in-waiting Matt Leinart may have already noticed he had a better offensive line last year. In St. Louis, Witherspoon will strengthen the NFC's worst defense, but in replacing Mike Martz with Scott Linehan, the Rams traded one head-scratching play caller for another.

San Francisco has surrounded Alex Smith with Norv Turner, Antonio Bryant, rookie Vernon Davis and a healthier offensive line, but progress will be measured the same way the 49ers move the ball -- one yard at a time.

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Photo:

(1) Osi Umenyiora and the New York Giants would love to get their hands on what Walter Jones and the Seattle Seahawks have -- an NFC title.

Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

(2) Donovan McNabb and the Philadelphia Eagles look to rebound from a tumultuous 2005 season.

Jamie Squire/Getty Images