SC ANALYSIS: SCHEDULE IS USC'S ENEMY OPPONENT QUALITY DETERMINES USC'S FATE IN FINAL STANDINGS.

Byline: Scott Wolf Staff Writer

Just how close did USC come to making the Sugar Bowl and playing in the Bowl Championship Series title game?

Any number of things this past weekend could have propelled the Trojans into one of the top two spots in the BCS standings, but it didn't happen.

--If Hawaii had defeated Boise State, USC would be in the Sugar Bowl.

``USC finished .16 points behind LSU in the final standings,'' BCS computer analyst Jerry Palm said. ``A Hawaii win would have been worth .2 points. It's pretty easy math.''

--If Notre Dame had defeated Syracuse, USC would have cruised into the Sugar Bowl because the Trojans would have won at least one more computer poll.

``Nothing went USC's way,'' Palm said.

--But the real number that might bother the Trojans today comes from Richard Billingsley's computer rankings, which are part of the BCS formula. He ranked Louisiana State No. 2, ahead of USC by just .12 points.

``The margin's so slim, USC could play Army next week and move ahead of LSU,'' Palm said. ``They could play Arizona again and pass LSU.''

If USC had finished second in Billingsley's rankings, the Trojans would be preparing to play Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl.

--In Kenneth Massey's computer rankings, LSU, Oklahoma and USC were 1-2-3, respectively. Palm said if LSU and USC were the top two teams, the Trojans would be in the Sugar Bowl.

Palm said USC's undoing was strength of schedule. USC led LSU by 17 spots before the weekend but trailed the Tigers by eight spots Sunday.

``LSU saw a jump based solely on beating Georgia,'' Palm said. ``The biggest thing that mattered this weekend is Georgia.''

Even though the computers ranked LSU's schedule as more difficult than the Trojans', Palm said he wasn't completely sold on that theory.

``I don't necessarily think LSU's schedule is stronger and don't think they necessarily are that much more dominant,'' he said. ``USC didn't play as many good teams or as many dreadful teams.''

The fact USC failed to land a berth in the Sugar Bowl doesn't mean the Trojans are shut out. By being ranked No. 1 in the Associated Press poll, USC can claim half the national title by defeating Michigan and hoping the AP voters don't change their minds.

The AP has never replaced a No. 1 that won its bowl game, according to a spokesperson.

USC is also No. 1 in the coaches' poll, but the coaches are contractually obligated to vote the BCS champion as the top-ranked team. USC coach Pete Carroll declined an opportunity before the season to vote in the coaches' poll.

``See, that's why I didn't want to vote,'' Carroll said. ``I'd have to vote against myself.''

As might be expected, the Pacific-10 Conference was not thrilled with Sunday's events just two years after Oregon was shut out of the BCS title game despite being ranked No. 2 in both polls. Instead, Nebraska played Miami that year.

CAPTION(S):

2 boxes

Box:

(1) REPORT CARD: USC 52, OREGON STATE 28

(2) BOWL GLANCE