SAUDI ARABIA - The Delicate Balance.

The Riyadh government had been officially notified since 1999 that no one, from the royal family down, is allowed to make a public statement without prior authorisation from the trilateral partnership between Abdullah and each of Princes Sultan and Nayef. This reflects a highly-delicate balance among the three partners. But since mid-2001, Abdullah has often acted unilaterally and, in view of the gravity of the people's anger with the US over Washington's bias for Israel, Princes Sultan and Nayef have kept quiet about such moves, with Prince Salman often standing on the side of Abdullah.

Previously, and for many years, Sultan and Abdullah used to engage in complex power struggles over the succession issue, over Saudi dependence on or appeasement of the US, and several other matters. But both Abdullah and Sultan, as well as Nayef, have grown accustomed to Prince Salman's tactful but extremely effective interventions. In terms of character or temperament, of the younger two half-brothers of the Sudairi Seven, Prince Abdul-Rahman is closer to Prince Salman, while Prince Ahmad is closer to Prince Nayef.

After major combat in the US-led war in Iraq ended in late April 2003, a group of Saudi liberals in a rare move demanded reform from then Crown Prince Abdullah. The group included Shi'ites from the oil-rich Eastern Province. Soon after a government announcement on Oct. 13, 2003 that half of the members of municipal councils will be elected, militants demanding wider political and economic reforms demonstrated in Riyadh on Oct. 14 of that year and thus - for the first time since the 1960s - openly defied an official ban on such manifestations. That development compelled Prince Abdullah to freeze the planned elections.

As many as 150 people were arrested and Prince Nayef said: "They (demonstrators) are a small bunch...this won't happen again". It was the first such large-scale protest in a kingdom which by then had come under internal and external pressures to reform. The atmosphere in Saudi Arabia was tense and, in some parts of the kingdom, the situation was boiling.

There was, in parallel, a civil war of low intensity going on between the royal regime and the Wahhabi religious establishment. Although the figures directly involved in this war against the royal regime only included low-ranking Wahhabi religious men (Neo-Wahhabis) and Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda cell members, it was clear that the latter tended to represent the religious establishment as a whole. That war was sparked off in May 2003 with suicide bombings in Riyadh which killed 35 people including Americans. From then on street battles between security forces and Neo-Wahhabi militants became frequent and were spread in various parts of Saudi Arabia.

Iran extradited to Saudi Arabia a number of al-Qaeda men. During an Islamic summit conference in Malaysia on Oct. 17, 2003, then Iranian President Mohammad Khatami said Tehran had deported many al-Qaeda suspects but would not extradite any to the US despite Washington requests to do so. It was alleged that the May 2003 suicide bombings in Riyadh had been planned by al-Qaeda in Iran, where bin Laden's son Sa'd was said to be among al-Qaeda fugitives detained. But Sa'd has not been handed over to Saudi Arabia; and, while the Saudi government forces have since gained the upper hand against al-Qaeda, the situation for Neo-Wahhabi/Neo-Salafi fugitives to Iran from Afghanistan remains unknown, with unconfirmed reports that they have since been allowed to infiltrate Iraq through the Iranian frontiers. It is said that the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, now in latent conflict with Riyadh, is acting a co-ordinator for a tactical alliance between the Neo-Salafis and the Shi'ite theocracy of Iran. This alliance is causing the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia to become part of an Arab-Persian confrontation (see news17-IranInArabPersianConfrtnOct22-07).

The more moderate liberal Saudis have limited their activities to sending signed petitions. After the Iraq war was launched by the US they sent a few petitions to then Prince Abdullah who promised to consider their demands for political participation and a fair distribution of wealth. But no major reforms have been ordered since Abdullah has become king - though the municipal elections did take place in 2005.

Prince Talal ibn Abdul-Aziz, a liberal half-brother of King Abdullah, occasionally comes up with bold statements of initiatives; and his moves are often defended by the monarch, much to the displeasure of Princes Sultan and Nayef. On Sept. 4, 2007, Prince Talal said he planned to form a political party in the kingdom and that he will invite jailed reformists to join it. He censured the jailing of pro-reform advocates within the kingdom, and said they were welcome to join his party when it was set up. He said: "I know this is not an easy thing to do, and we have a lot of obstacles ahead of us, but we have to start forming this party".

Praising King Abdullah as a reformer who faced "obstacles before him", Prince Talal said he wanted the party to break a power monopoly by some members of the royal family who had been "holding executive power for some 70 years". In a step likely to have angered Princes Sultan and Nayef, Prince Talal - father of Saudi Arabia's richest business tycoon, Prince Alwaleed - criticised, in an interview published on Sept. 3, what he termed a "monopoly on Saudi power by one faction" within the royal family. He did not name members of the faction.

Such a call for reform by someone inside the royal family is rare. Prince Talal holds no government post because of his past pushes for reform dating back decades, which forced him into exile briefly in the early 1960s. But Prince Talal also is believed to be personally close to and a confidante of King Abdullah, whom he often praises as a reformer facing "obstacles".

In the interview done outside Saudi Arabia, Prince Talal provided few details about the party he intended to form. Of those members of the royal family having the "monopoly" on power, he said: "This is a group which is not only blocking reform, but is also trying to eliminate others and take everything in its hand. We, in particular the sons of Abdul-Aziz, should take part, both in expressing opinions and in decision-making".

Prince Talal said the party he intended to form should be a platform to allow all Saudis, including non-royals, to express their views and share decision-making powers. He pointed to the other GCC states which have already opened up their conservative political systems and held elections for legislatures. He said: "Saudis are asking why these small [GCC] states have followed this direction and not we?" Among reforms Prince Talal has suggested in the past are an elected assembly to enact legislation, question officials and protect public wealth. He called on the kingdom's Wahhabi religious establishment to make changes, including on women's rights, saying: "We have signed international conventions, such on women's rights, and we should respect them".

The group of Saudi activists Prince Talal cited have been in jail for months for advocating reform. The prince called them "prisoners of conscience not criminals", saying: "They should be either tried in an independent court or set free".

Prince Talal, in his 70s, fled to Egypt in 1962 because of his ideas, which he insists do not contradict Islam or jeopardise the kingdom's Islamic credentials. But he was allowed to return in 1964 after reconciling with then King Faisal. Now Prince Talal heads a charity, the Arab Gulf Programme for UN Development Organisations (AGPUNDO). His billionaire son, Prince Alwleed who Forbes ranks as the world's 13th richest person, is the grand-son of Lebanon's independence PM, the late Riad al-Solh.

On one particularly sensitive issue, Prince Talal called for an independent British-Saudi committee to probe allegations that some royal family members had received kickbacks from oil and arms deals.

In an interview with Reuters in 2003, Prince Talal said tackling poverty, transparency and unemployment in Saudi Arabia were central to reform. He said "armies of poor" were one factor pushing Saudis to violence. (The authorities then acknowledged that poverty existed in the kingdom). Prince Talal then said: "I hear that much of the money for the poor doesn't get to them. There is no supervision, and that needs a free press and a parliament which should monitor state spending".

Equally, if not more, pressing have been the demands of the US for Riyadh to reform the kingdom's system of education. Although the Wahhabi religious establishment is still trying to regain control over school or college curricula, since late 2003 these have been gradually revised and all materials inciting fanaticism have been greatly reduced in a process which seems aimed at their total elimination eventually. The education sector in recent years used to be dominated by the Wahhabi order, which still tries to impose rigid curricula on Saudi houses of learning.

The US has sent advisers to assist in reforming the Saudi education system, in a first - albeit modest - step to engage Riyadh on an issue which is of great concern to Washington. Saudi education has often been criticised since 9/11, both in the US and inside the kingdom, for preaching Wahhabi intolerance and radicalising Saudi youth.

Until early 2005, American attempts to discuss education reforms used to be regarded as unjustified interference in Saudi domestic affairs. But the situation began to improve after partial local elections held in a phased process in 2005. US officials and Saudi analysts now say that education reform is being seriously tackled by the Saudi authorities.

In the autumn of 2003 the ministry of education asked for US help in setting up exchange programmes and development of ways to work with American universities on curriculum development. A US official was then quoted as saying: "The advisers will sit with the ministry of education to discuss supporting teacher training and even begin curriculum reform". He said the limited US co-operation was part of a tentative effort to engage with Riyadh and press for social and political reforms at a time of continued tensions between Riyadh and Washington.

The despatch of education advisers was then part of the $100m programme run by Elizabeth Cheney, an assistant undersecretary of state responsible for Arab reforms and daughter of Vice President Dick Cheney. Her department was created after 9/11. US officials then said the need to encourage the Saudis had led the Bush administration to decide against distributing financial assistance only to countries that were well ahead in instituting reforms. Saudi Arabia had just signed a trade and investment agreement with the US and was receiving US help in its WTO membership bid.

On Sept. 26, 2003, al-Arabiya TV quoted al-Qaeda's No. 2 man Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri as saying the US had demanded that Saudi Arabia stop printing copies of the Qur'an. He said the demand was made in the report prepared by Congress on Saudi links to 9/11 (see gmt17SaudiWhoOct24-05).

The Saudi Human Rights Council, a government-backed advocacy, has begun researching the effects of women driving on families and Saudi society. A group of Saudi women have led a petition drive asking the king to repeal a ban on female driving, placing the issue at the heart of a discussion about modernity and Saudi Arabia's place in the world. Unlike the last such petition, in 1990, Riyadh seems mildly receptive rather than hostile. Mrs. Wajeha al-Huwaider, 45, one of the organisers, said: "You get the feeling that they are preparing the population for this issue. It is just like the decision to allow women education. They resisted it, but now it's a reality".

On Sept. 22, Huwaider and about 1,100 other women sent the petition to King Abdullah, demanding that women be given the right to drive, citing the lack of a religious reasoning against it. Some officials and religious men agree with the women that Islam does not forbid women from driving. In the past, Saudi women were able to move freely on camel and horseback and Bedouin women in the desert openly drive pickup trucks far from the public eye.

In 2005 Muhammad al-Zulfa, a member of the Shura Council, an appointed body which advises the king and cabinet, caused an uproar when he suggested that the council consider allowing women to drive. But Wahhabi theologians maintain that allowing women to drive would open Saudi society to untold corruption. Women alone in a car, they say, would be more open to abuse, go wayward, and get into trouble if they had car accidents or were stopped by the police. The net result would be an erosion of social mores. Mrs. Huwaider says: "Our parents had the right of movement; our grandparents had it, too. But we ladies of the cities lost the old ways and got nothing in their place". EN