SANTA ANITA LOSERS: KENTUCKY CONTENDERS.

Byline: KEVIN MODESTI

If you want to see the next Kentucky Derby winner, look behind the Santa Anita Derby winner on Saturday.

That's the lesson of the past two Santa Anita Derbies, which sent runners-up Silver Charm and Real Quiet on to victories in the Derby four weeks later.

Aberrations?

Not necessarily. Since Sunday Silence won both Derbies and the Preakness in 1989, Santa Anita Derby winners have gone on to only one victory in a Triple Crown race, A.P. Indy's Belmont Stakes in '92. In those 10 years, Santa Anita Derby losers Tabasco Cat (second in '94), Timber Country (fourth in '95), Silver Charm and Real Quiet have accounted for seven victories in Triple Crown races.

What's going on here?

Some of the Churchill Downs failures by Santa Anita heroes can be blamed on injury (Dinard, A.P. Indy, Larry the Legend) and bad racing luck (Brocco breaking slowly, Cavonnier taking a whip in the face).

Also, Santa Anita losers outnumber winners, so of course the chances are good that some loser will turn the tables in Kentucky.

And overall, in the 61 years that the Santa Anita Derby has served as the West's major Triple Crown prep, winners have gone on to 17 victories in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont; losers to only 13.

But the phenomenal success of Santa Anita Derby losers in the 1990s shouldn't be ignored. It's instructive for the 30,000 to 35,000 fans who will attend the $750,000 race in person and everybody else who will watch on television Saturday.

Before assuming the winner is the best 3-year-old in California, consider possible reasons one of the horses chasing him or her to the wire might be better:

Bad luck: The 1-1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby typically is a cleanly run race in which post positions have little obvious effect, but a loser might get an uncharacteristically slow start, be caught in traffic or disadvantaged by an unusually fast or slow pace. Try to imagine whether the horse could have won without the trouble.

Running style: Because the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont are each longer than the Santa Anita Derby, horses who exhibit stamina in defeat should be respected. No horse who needed more than 13 3/5 seconds to run the final eighth of a mile has gone on to win a Triple Crown race.

Most future winners covered the last furlong at Santa Anita in about 13 seconds. Tabasco Cat and Timber Country came home in 12 1/5 in losing efforts to signal their affinity for greater distance.

Fans who understand pedigrees have an even better chance of guessing each horse's distance capability.

Track condition: It almost never rains on Southern California's Derby, but if the track is wet Saturday, that might help General Challenge (who has won on ``wet-fast'' and ``good'' surfaces) while providing an easy excuse for losers.

Even a ``fast'' track might subtly favor one kind of horse, perhaps a front-runner, over another. On Santa Anita Derby day in '98, horses with early speed went on to win more than their share of the races, and viewed in that context, Real Quiet was impressive in rallying from sixth to second behind winner Indian Charlie. Real Quiet went on to win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness.

Take note of any Santa Anita Derby horse who puts up a good fight against an apparent track bias, even if it's not enough to win.

Maturity: ``They're 3-year-olds and they're changing as they come into the spring,'' said Richard Mandella, who trains Desert Hero. ``They're starting to mature.''

Downgrade the winner if he has raced only a handful of times, leaving him too inexperienced to withstand the rough and tumble of the Kentucky Derby, or if he has raced too many times, leaving little room for improvement. Indian Charlie is the latest example of an underseasoned Santa Anita winner. He ran third in Kentucky and was soon retired with an injury.

In this year's field, Charismatic has raced a whopping 12 times, while High Wire Act and the filly Honest Lady have raced just three times and Desert Hero only twice.

Upgrade a loser who has shown ability in the past and might have benefited from the Santa Anita Derby experience. Maybe he learned to take a little dirt in the face. Or maybe he needed the race to get in shape. Silver Charm got a late start on his 3-year-old campaign because of illness. Running second to Free House sharpened him.

Prime Timber, who goes into Saturday's race as the nation's No. 1 Kentucky Derby contender, got a late start this season and should continue to improve. Capsized missed a week of training with a foot injury before his third-place finish last time out and could regain momentum Saturday.

The Santa Anita Derby winner will earn a $450,000 check, a lot of prestige and all the attention. But a bigger prize might await one of the losers.

An odd choice: Desert Hero is a 5-2 favorite - General Challenge 3-1, Prime Timber 7-2 and the filly Honest Lady 4-1 - on a questionable morning line set Thursday by Santa Anita's Jeff Tufts.

A survey of press-box handicappers found nearly unanimous belief that Prime Timber will be favored and Honest Lady's odds will be higher than 4-1. Desert Hero overcame a troubled trip to defeat Prime Timber in their only meeting. But that was Prime Timber's first start in 2-1/2 months and he's No. 1 in national 3-year-old rankings.

The other surprise Thursday was the entry of Walk That Walk, a maiden-race winner trained by Michael Whittingham. He was made the 30-1 long shot in the eight-horse field.

The undercard: Santa Anita will offer its second - and probably last - guaranteed $1 million pick-six pool of the season on Saturday's 11-race program. It'll start with the sixth race, the race after the Derby.

SANTA ANITA DERBY LINEUP

Post Horse ODDS x

1 Honest Lady 4-1

2 Prime Timber 7-2

3 Desert Hero 5-2

4 Capsized 8-1

5 Walk That Walk 30-1

6 High Wire Act 8-1

7 General Challenge 3-1

8 Charismatic 15-1

x - Odds predicted by Santa Anita's Jeff Tufts. Each horse is assigned 120 pounds except for Honest Lady, a filly, who carries 115.

A WEEK AT THE RACES

Santa Anita leaders: Jockeys (through Wednesday): David Flores and Alex Solis, 56 wins; Chris McCarron and Laffit Pincay, 44; Kent Desormeaux, 41. Trainers: Bob Baffert, 34; Vladimir Cerin and Ron McAnally, 17; Bobby Frankel and Richard Mandella, 16.

Handicapper helper: The past seven Santa Anita Derbies were won by horses who started from the inside half of the starting gate. Only one of the past 10 were won by front-runners.

On the stakes schedule: At Santa Anita: Saturday, $750,000 Santa Anita Derby, 3-year-olds, 1-1/8 miles, $200,000 Potrero Grande Breeders' Cup Handicap, 4-year-olds and up, 6-1/2 furlongs, and $75,000 Providencia, 3-year-old fillies, 1-1/8 miles on turf; Sunday, $150,000 El Rincon Handicap, 4-year-olds and up, 1-1/8 miles on turf. At Oaklawn Park: Saturday, $750,000 Oaklawn Handicap, 4-year-olds and up, 1-1/8 miles. At Hialeah: Saturday, $250,000 Flamingo, 3-year-olds, 1-1/8 miles.

Mileposts: The Blood-Horse magazine's list of the century's top 100 thoroughbreds includes four Santa Anita Derby winners (No. 12 Affirmed, No. 20 Swaps, No. 31 Sunday Silence, No. 46 Majestic Prince), two runners-up (No. 40 Busher, No. 63 Silver Charm) and one third-place horse (No. 17 Round Table). . . . Silver Charm, on the first three-race losing streak of his career after finishing sixth in Sunday's Dubai World Cup, faces an uncertain future. ``I'm just going to get him back here (to Santa Anita) and see,'' trainer Bob Baffert said. ``He's sound. We'll pick our spots with him. It's too late (in the breeding season) to send him to the stallion barn.'' . . . Malek, second to Dubai-based Almutawakel in the World Cup, will point for the May 29 Massachusetts Handicap at Suffolk Downs, trainer Richard Mandella said. . . . Dr Fong, fourth in the Santa Anita Handicap, and Classic Cat will face Behrens in the Oaklawn Handicap in Arkansas. . . . Baffert began the week needing one stakes win to match the record of 14 at a Santa Anita meet set by Charlie Whittingham in 1971 and equaled by Neil Drysdale in '98. . . . Octavio Vergara rode his 1,000th winner, Florina ($36) in Saturday's fourth race. . . . Golden Gate Fields in Albany, Calif., opened a 12-week season Wednesday. First post: 12:45 until April 24, 12:15 after. Big race: the April 25 San Francisco Mile, next target for Lord Smith, winner over Hawksley Hill in Sunday's Explosive Bid in New Orleans. . . . Baltimore's Pimlico Race Course opened Wednesday for a 12-week meet that includes the May 8 Pimlico Special and May 15 Preakness. The Pimlico Special could be next for Free House and Real Quiet. . . Latest addition to Daily Racing Form past-performance charts: the purchase price of horses sold at auction.

- Kevin Modesti

CAPTION(S):

2 Boxes

Box: (1) SANTA ANITA DERBY LINEUP (See text)

(2) A WEEK AT THE RACES (See text)