SAINTS' FUTURE IS UNCERTAIN IN WAKE OF KATRINA, TEAM MIGHT MOVE OUT.

Byline: Billy Witz Staff Writer

The New Orleans Saints, having found shelter and a temporary home in San Antonio, are in much the same position as hundreds of thousands of others who have fled New Orleans for neighboring towns and cities throughout the South.

The question, as the days pass, is not so much when they'll go home, but whether they will return at all.

As large-scale relief efforts began Friday, quickening the pace of the evacuation of the city's remaining residents, work continued Saturday to repair the broken levees that have left much of the city underwater in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.

Once that is done, the water can begin to be drained, and the true toll of the disaster will begin to be realized. City officials fear they'll find thousands of bodies in submerged homes and whole regions of the city laid to waste.

In the meantime, the Saints might be making San Antonio their permanent home.

The New Orleans Times-Picayune reported on its Web site Saturday evening that Saints' chief administrator Arnold Fielkow warned state officials that owner Tom Benson was strongly considering the move but had not made a final decision.

``We may lose them permanently,'' State Sen. Mike Michot, R-Lafayette, told the paper.

A Saints official said a move was not being considered at this time.

Saints spokesman Greg Bensel said the team's focus is on the people of New Orleans and the region. ``We only wish that everyone keep their thoughts and prayers on those who've suffered.''

Two NFL officials and another industry source said in recent days that the Saints had been focused strictly on two matters: making sure family and friends are safe and secure - players are off the three-day Labor Day weekend - and finalizing operating logistics for the season. This includes everything from setting up a film room to deciding where the team will play its home games.

NFL Commissioner Paul Tagliabue announced Friday that the Saints will play their home opener, scheduled Sept. 18 against the New York Giants, at Giants Stadium. The sites of the Saints' other seven games have not been determined.

At some point, the Saints also must consider their future in New Orleans - tenuous even before Katrina arrived.

Benson and Louisiana governor Kathleen Blanco have been in oft-contentious negotiations since last year on a deal that would keep the Saints in Louisiana. The Saints want a renovated Superdome in addition to the current subsidies of between $15 and $23.5 million that the state is due to pay the team through 2011. The state, which has had to borrow money to make the payments the past two years, wants relief.

Driving the negotiations had been the 90-day window the Saints have beginning Jan. 1, 2006, in which they can leave New Orleans.

This has made them a prime candidate to relocate to Los Angeles, where the NFL is negotiating to build a state-of-the-art stadium at the Coliseum or in Anaheim.

``We haven't given it a thought,'' NFL spokesman Greg Aiello said of the team's future. ``We have other priorities right now.''

Although there was some discussion between the NFL and California officials early in the week about moving the Saints to Los Angeles this season, they were very informal, according to sources, and made in the context of the league exploring its options, which have included offers from cities as far away as Detroit.

``If the Saints want to come here to play for the short term, we'll be glad to help, but our thoughts and concerns are on the people of New Orleans,'' Rose Bowl general manager Darryl Dunn said.

Said Rich Lichtenstein, a strategic consultant for the Coliseum: ``As far as I can tell, there are zero discussions going on. Even if they were, they'd be discouraged.''

Meanwhile, the Saints are waiting to get a handle on the damage to their facilities. The team's headquarters and practice facility in Metarie, a suburb west of the New Orleans, have been spared serious damage. Because the Superdome still is housing evacuees, building officials have not been able to assess the extent of the damage.

This much is known, according to an NFL official: There has been water all over the first floor; the roof will need repairs to its surface and the structure; and because of the large amounts of sewage and human waste, the entire building will have to be disinfected. Among the unknowns is the severity of the water damage and the conditions of the plumbing and electrical systems.

Rosemary Patterson, a member of the Superdome Commission board, said preliminary reports indicate the stadium can be repaired.

``The structure itself is very stable - it's concrete and steel,'' Patterson said. ``The Dome can be stripped out, back to steel, and built back up again. When the sewage is cleaned out, I think it can be reconstructed. But it will take a long time to get it back into condition to play football.''

It will take much longer for the city, which already had its challenges as an NFL market. The 43rd-largest television market - only Buffalo, Jacksonville and Green Bay are smaller in the NFL - New Orleans also is one of the poorest. It is home to just one Fortune 500 company, and the state to just two, leaving fewer businesses and fans that can afford to buy the suites and club seats that are the bread and butter of clubs' financial health in today's NFL.

The Saints, according to a study released Thursday by Forbes Magazine, were tied for 21st in revenues last year with $175 million. If the $15 million payment from the state is subtracted, only the Arizona Cardinals generate less revenue.

Although billions in federal aid will be poured into the Gulf Coast region for reconstruction, and a significant core of New Orleans - the French Quarter, the Central Business District, the Garden District and Uptown - has been spared the worst damage, LSU economics professor Jim Richardson estimates that it will be at least six years before New Orleans' economy can recover.

``It's going to be a long recovery,'' Richardson said, adding that some people who have gone to Baton Rouge, Houston and Dallas never will return.

Two of the major industries - oil and gas, and the ports of New Orleans and South Louisiana - could be back relatively soon, if there isn't major infrastructure damage.

The tourist industry is another matter.

The health of the tourist industry is especially pertinent to the Saints' future. The current subsidies are largely being underwritten by a 1 percent increase in the city's hotel occupancy tax. Those revenues had climbed by an average of 8 percent a year during the 1990s but have declined 10 percent since 9/11.

Eventually, this will lead to a public-policy question: In the wake of this natural disaster, how important is a football team?

Just as the Coliseum was rebuilt with $100 million in federal aid following the 1994 Northridge earthquake, there would be relief to rebuild the Superdome.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency will pay for up to 75 percent of repairs that have been caused by the disaster, according to agency spokesman Jack Brandis. Upgrades - such as luxury boxes - would have to be paid for with other funds.

For now, the Saints are more than New Orleans' team. They belong to the state - and beyond.

Although the Saints' first home game has been moved far away, Tagliabue has said he would like to keep the Saints as close as possible to New Orleans this season.

State Rep. Billy Montgomery (D-Shreveport) wants to propose a resolution that the Saints play at least three home games in Louisiana this season - in Baton Rouge, Shreveport and perhaps Lafayette.

``From what I've been reading, a lot of the players want to be part of trying to help,'' said Montgomery, a supporter-turned-critic of Benson. ``I think it would be a great deal for them to do. Every RV park up here is full, and we're bringing people in from New Orleans by the busload. It would be a good healing thing.

``We don't need to carry grudges. I'm talking about good things happening from bad. We aren't talking about football now.''

Asked about the Saints' future, Montgomery is less hopeful. Resigned is more like it.

``It's a free country,'' he said. ``(Benson) ought to be able to do what he wants to do.''

In Louisiana, as in the rest of the South, football is more than a sport. It is a currency of the culture.

The Saints have had just seven winning seasons in their 38-year existence, and yet they had the NFC's second-highest-rated television market last season, surpassed only by Green Bay.

In Bossier City, Patterson, the Superdome board member, had to cut a phone interview short Friday evening because she and her husband were off to see their grandsons' high school football game.

``There are a lot of fine cities that don't have pro football, but we don't want to be a state without a team,'' she said. ``Now, it's frivolous when people don't have food and water, but if the Saints come back to Louisiana, it's a step in the right direction. It will lend an air of normalcy to us, whether we're normal or not. Normalcy in the fall means we're playing football.''

In football, like everything else in New Orleans, there may be no getting around the new normal.

Billy Witz, [phone]

billy.witz(at)dailynews.com

CAPTION(S):

photo

Photo:

The Superdome won't be ready for football for a ``long time,'' according to a Superdome Commission board member.

Jeremy L. Grisham/U.S. Navy/Associated Press