Russian-dominated "OPEC" in the making?

While public attention has understandably been focused on the spiraling cost of crude oil, relatively little heed has been paid to our increasing reliance on natural gas, which is likely to become the world's second leading energy source within the next few years.

"The growing dependence of the United States on gas has the potential to alter its political dialogue with Russia, a country whose 28 percent share of global natural gas reserves is made more significant by the instability of the other leading exporters, including Iran and Saudi Arabia," wrote Artem Agoulnik of the American Foreign Policy Council in an October 20 Washington Post column. "Western Europe already relies on Russia for more than a third of its natural gas needs, Finland and Slovakia for a full 100 percent of theirs. Even the United States is expected to substantially increase its imports of liquefied natural gas from Russia by 2025."

"Over the past several years," continues Agoulnik, "the Kremlin has emerged, virtually unchallenged, as the dominant global player in natural gas." Working through a network of state-run energy cartels--particularly Gazprom--Moscow is building a Central Asian gas cartel. The Putin regime has hammered out a 25-year gas pact with Turkmenistan and a 35-year accord with Uzbekistan. Similar deals are in the works with Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan.

"Russia has even begun to organize the world's natural gas exporters under its aegis," warns Agoulnik. "Analysts are predicting that the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, founded in 2001, may serve as a precursor to a natural gas OPEC with Russia at the helm. In the wake of the forum's June meeting in Cairo, the deputy chief executive of Gazprom, Alexander Ryazanov, made clear that the natural gas policies of member states should be 'coordinated' so as to sell gas at the 'highest price possible.' In the process, Russia--already the world's leading oil exporter--has positioned itself to become the undisputed global energy czar, with the [potential] ... ability to dictate policy to Europe and the United States."