Russia agonizes over the Kyoto Protocol.

During international climate negotiations in Milan last December, a senior Kremlin aide announced that the Kyoto Protocol on climate change could not be ratified in its current form. Soon thereafter, he was contradicted by an official from the economics ministry, who stated that Russia is "moving toward ratification." Two weeks later, Deputy Foreign Minister Fedotov said Russia is attuning national legislation "in compliance with the Kyoto Protocol provisions," indicating that Russia is in fact on the road to ratification. Russia's mixed signals and indecision over the protocol have taken the world on a roller coaster ride over the past 18 months.

To take effect, Kyoto must be ratified by 55 countries representing 55 percent of industrial-country 1990 emissions. Although more than 120 countries have passed it, the protocol remains 11 percent short. The withdrawal of the world's largest polluter, the United States, from the treaty has given Russia effective veto power.

The U.S. retreat from Kyoto not only made it more challenging to pass (the United States accounts for 36 percent of qualifying emissions), but also made participation less appealing to Russia. Russia's carbon emissions have declined 32 percent since 1990, providing the country with "hot air" to sell in the form of emissions credits. But these credits are worth far less in a global market absent U.S. demand. As a result, Russia has tried to extract purchase guarantees from Europe and Japan in exchange for ratification. The dispute within Russia has been influenced greatly by external forces, as Europe and the United States have worked relentlessly to influence Russia's position. In the autumn of 2002, President Putin confirmed his country's intention to ratify Kyoto and, until recently, Russia appeared closer to the EU position. At a climate conference hosted by Moscow last September, Putin backed away from his pledge to ratify--coincidentally, just days after a meeting with President Bush--joking that a temperature increase of 2 to 3 degrees C could benefit Russia by increasing agricultural output and enabling Russians "to spend less money on fur coats."

Many analysts believe Putin is awaiting results of presidential elections in March, or even the U.S. presidential elections in November, before making a final decision. Some argue that Putin will not want to be blamed for undermining the Kyoto Protocol. And many of Kyoto's strongest supporters are Russia's largest polluters--including oil and electricity giants--who believe ratification can benefit Russia through billions of dollars in emissions credit deals and foreign investment. So, ultimately, it might be hard to say no.

With or without Russia, the Kyoto Protocol has already increased awareness about climate change and affected government and corporate policies around the world. It has helped spur a global takeoff in renewable energy development and has spawned innovative solutions such as international carbon trading. However, all this is just the beginning of what will be required to address the threat of climate change, and if Kyoto collapses many of these gains are likely to disintegrate as well.