Rubber consumption to grow 4%.

The International Rubber Study Group said rubber consumption grew by an estimated 3% to 19.88 million metric tons in 2004, with growth in natural rubber usage (3.5%) outpacing the expansion in consumption of synthetic rubber (2.6%).

With assumptions of economic conditions fostering further growth in rubber consumption, total usage is projected to rise by about 4% in 2005 and 2006, taking aggregate rubber use to 20.73 mmt next year. In both years, Asia-Pacific is expected to exhibit sound rates and provide a solid push to global consumption growth. The IRSG said that expected stronger growth in consumption of NR relative to production, this year and next, should result in a narrowing of the supply-demand balance. With respect to the synthetics, a narrowing but positive surplus is anticipated over the next two years.

Growth in NR usage of 5.5% to 8.72 mmt in 2005 will outpace the expansion of SR consumption, projected at around 3%, taking production to 12.01 mmt. The outlook for production sees tame growth of 1.7% and 2.1%, respectively, for both NR and SR, pushing output up to 8.78 mmt and 12.22 mmt. Consequently, a narrowing of the supply-demand differential is expected in both categories in 2005.

China's consumption of rubber passed the four million mt level in 2004, up from 3.6 million mmt in 2003. The country has more than doubled its rubber consumption in the last seven years.

In North America, consumption of rubber in the U.S. totaled 3.04 mmt in 2004, a slight increase from 2003. Canadian consumption also increased slightly from 371,500 mt in 2003 to 372,900 mt last year.

In Europe, consumption fell off in Germany from 866,000 mt to 844,000 mt, and there was a sharp drop in rubber consumption in France as usage fell 143,000 mt to 650,200 mt in 2004.

Japan's consumption continued to increase as it reached 1.96 mmt.

World rubber consumption ('000 mt)

                  2004       2004       2004
                    NR         SR      total

Canada            46.3      226.6      372.9
U.S.A            1,144    1,903.7    3,047.7
Austria           26.5         53       79.5
Belg./Lux.          72        116        188
Czech Rep.        49.8         92      141.8
Finland           31.5          4       35.5
France           230.1      420.1      650.2
Germany          219.5      624.5        844
Italy              142        255        397
Netherlands         22      102.5      124.5
Poland            78.5        149      227.5
Portugal            22       57.5       79.5
Slovakia          33.7       34.6        683
Slovenia            19       37.7       56.7
Spain            191.5        303      494.5
Sweden             6.7       79.3         86
U.K               86.5      206.5        293
Other E.U.        22.2       78.6      100.8
Russian Fed.      28.5      539.7      568.2
Turkey             118      142.5      260.5
Ukraine              6       73.5       79.5
Other Europe      35.7      115.4      151.1
South Africa        65         62        127
Other Africa      53.4       37.8       91.2
Australia         26.5         47       73.5
China            1,630    2,437.5    4,067.5
India            745.3      222.7        968
Indonesia          196        135        331
Japan            814.8    1,146.3    1,961.1
Rep. of Korea    351.8        335      686.8
Malaysia         402.5        137      539.5
Taiwan           119.5        296      415.5
Thailand           302        166        468
Other Asia       305.9      186.6      492.5
Brazil           281.5        388      669.5
Mexico            80.5      144.5        225
Other L.A.         140      213.6      353.6

Total            8,250     11,690     19,940