Rubber consumption increased 5% in 2003.

Despite a slowdown in the beginning of the year, rubber consumption rebounded strongly in the second half of 2003. Preliminary figures from the International Rubber Study Group show consumption rising an estimated 5% to 18.97 million metric tons. The IRSG said that even though the war in Iraq and the SARS epidemic adversely affected consumption in the beginning of the year, all regions posted increases.

World rubber supply increased by 5.3%, with natural rubber output up 6.6% to 7.75 mmt. Synthetic rubber increased at a rate of 4.4% to 11.36 mmt. The SR share of consumption declined slightly to 58.6% the IRSG said.

The group said the bull-run on NR prices in contrast to a steady rise in SR prices was the overriding feature of the international rubber market in 2003. Prices for NR climbed for most of the year, making it one of the best years for producers in recent history.

World rubber consumption is forecast to continue to grow at a rate of around 5% for the next two years. The IRSG said that while growth is expected to continue for four consecutive years, growth rates are not expected to be as high as the 7% expansion achieved in 2000. Demand for NR is expected to remain relatively higher than SR in 2004 and 2005. Projections for NR are 5.6% and 5.4% as compared to the growth rates of 4.3% and 4.7% for SR.

Led by China, growth in Asia/Pacific is expected to be strongest, with the sharpest rise in output to come from the "Other Europe" sector. The IRSG predicts minimal growth in the U.S. to 3.08 mmt for next year.

World rubber consumption ('000 metric tons)

                    2002     2002     2002    2003     2003     2003
                      NR       SR    total      NR       SR    total

Canada               155      228      383     162      228      390
U.S.A.             1,111    1,895    3,006   1,150    1,929    3,070
Brazil               241      343      584     253      343      596
Mexico                75      132      207      81      143      224
Other L. America     118      183      301     116      189      305
Belgium/Lux.          49      113      162      56      114      170
France               231      469      700     281      498      779
Germany              247      612      859     261      675      936
Italy                133      262      395     138      260      398
Spain                184      292      476     189      293      482
U.K.                  84      162      246      94      164      258
Other E.U.            93      369      462      95      370      465
Belarus               10       34       44      11       35       46
Czech Rep.            42       93      135      44       93      137
Poland                63      120      183      67      122      189
Romania               12       24       35      12       26       38
Russian Fed.          19      497      516      28      521      549
Turkey                95      110      205     105      130      235
Ukraine                8       56       64       8       57       65
Other Europe          62      138      200      64      141      205
South Africa          66       57      123      66       64      130
Other Africa          63       51      114      63       52      115
Australia             26       43       69      26       45       71
China              1,310    1,575    2,885   1,455    1,995    3,450
India                679      192      871     714      205      919
Indonesia            145       96      241     146      105      251
Japan                738    1,088    1,826     786    1,093    1,879
Rep. of Korea        326      385      710     332      372      704
Malaysia             326      112      438     357      108      465
Taiwan               111      284      395     115      291      406
Thailand             278      148      426     245      153      398
Other Asia           242      182      424     252      169      421

Grand total        7,420   10,650   18,070   7,855   11,118   17,960

Source: IRSG