Rise of the black Republicans? Three GOP nominees seek to make history by winning key statewide and national races. But will they gain enough crossover votes and campaign contributions to capture their political prize?

IT'S CAMPAIGN SEASON AND J. KENNETH Blackwell's political machinery has kicked into high gear. On a hot, humid summer day--more than two months after he won the GOP primary to become the Republican nominee in the race for the governorship of Ohio--the solid, 6-foot-4 political veteran endures yet another whirlwind schedule. Traveling across the state in a modest, nondescript minivan, he'll log more than 500 miles to meet key constituents and possible donors.

At 9 a.m., his first stop is Cincinnati's spanking new convention center. He stands at the podium in a cavernous ballroom, addressing hundreds of African American police officials as part of a conference for the National Organization of Black Law Enforcement Executives. Blackwell, who served as the city's mayor more than 25 years ago, intimately knows the challenges of local police officers. He begins with an everyman tale of how his father, a meatpacker, used hard work and determination to pull his family out of public housing. He then shares a coming-of-age tale of learning about industry and responsibility by selling peanuts and working in a funeral parlor. Then in his deliberate, measured style, Blackwell delivers his core message--complete with Biblical references--on the value of community service. He tells the crowd that they represent "more than the sentry in the watchtower. You must not only be in the community but of the community ... We cannot give lip service to the challenges. None of us can take a sideline position. It requires education ... an obligation to give back ... we must lift as we climb--not as sentries or palace guards--but as role models."

As he finishes his speech, thunderous applause fills the room. Checking his watch, Blackwell leaves the podium to join his entourage of political handlers and security guards. Over the next few hours, his team will travel 102 miles to Columbus, where the candidate will meet a group of black CEOs. After that session, they must make a 143-mile trek to Cleveland so that Blackwell can share his views on economic development with heads of some of the state's major corporations. En route to these engagements, Blackwell operates from the backseat of his van, reviewing position papers and newspaper articles one minute and calling campaign staff via cell phone the next. Between conversations with his political operatives, Blackwell discusses how he would cure the litany of ills that plague a state that is 47th in job creation and dead last in the nation when it comes to business startups. "There are three things that we are going to have to do to change the nature of our economic situation statewide to get the economy expanding and producing jobs: moving to a single-rate tax system over the next four years; cutting our capital gains tax; changing our residency requirements via state tax; and reducing lawsuit abuse, better known as tort reform," he asserts, ticking off items that, in his view, choke business investment. "If you put risk-taking at risk, you put entrepreneurship at a disadvantage and you lock yourself into the economic doldrums."

Ninety minutes later, Blackwell arrives in the state's capital for a lunch that has strategy and fundraising at the top of the menu. Entering the elegant corporate law offices of Crabbe, Brown & James, he's greeted by one of the firm's senior partners, Larry H. James, a legal and business heavyweight in his own right. James escorts Blackwell into a conference room with a panoramic view of downtown Columbus. Seated around the table is a cadre of powerful black business leaders, including the legendary Albert Johnson, the first African American to own a Cadillac dealership, who was instrumental in making the late Harold Washington the first black mayor of Chicago more than 20 years ago; Warren Anderson, CEO of Solon, Ohio-based Anderson-DuBose Co. (No. 21 on the BE INDUSTRIAL/SERVICE 100 list with $194.5 million in sales); Dr. Robert Wright, chairman emeritus and senior adviser of Dimensions International Inc. (No. 35 on the BE INDUSTRIAL/SERVICE 100 list with $122.8 million in sales); and Napoleon Brandford III, chairman of Siebert Brandford Shank & Co. L.L.C. (No. 4 on the BE INVESTMENT BANKS list with $50.6 million in total managed issues). The roundtable conversation involves a range of topics, from soliciting campaign contributions via the Internet to the appeal of Republican candidates when large numbers of voters are fed up with President George W. Bush and the GOP. Blackwell also uses the meeting to make the distinction between him and his opponent, Rep. Ted Strickland, a six-term congressman, as he seeks to mobilize the black vote. "As I crisscrossed this state, I have talked with African American communities. Until we started putting heat on [Strickland], he has never hired an African American ... he hadn't even bought pencils from African American suppliers. So I would just suggest that this race is going to be about comparing records, comparing our performances, comparing our visions. We are going to hold our base in the Republican Party, and we're going to win the African American vote. We're going to re-establish a competitive, two-party system in the African American community in Ohio."

Those assembled embrace the words of this man who still serves as Secretary of State. Many of them have benefited from the role he's played in state government over the years. For instance, during his two terms as state treasurer, Blackwell increased minority business enterprise participation from 2.8% in 1994 to 30.4% in 1999. In fact, Siebert Brandford Shank was awarded its first senior-managed deal in Ohio because of Blackwell. By 2001, the firm had not only completed the refinancing of $475 million in outstanding bonds--the largest deal in Ohio history underwritten by a minority-owned firm--but was the leader among investment banks in senior-managed bond transactions for the State of Ohio. Brandford says that's not the case today: "Over the last three legislative sessions, they have shifted the debt issuing capability from the treasurer's office to the governor's office. I have not gotten one deal from [current] Governor [Bob] Taft's administration ... not one. So myself and all 20 of the African American firms on Wall Street are virtually out of business in Ohio." Brandford believes their fortunes will be lifted dramatically, however, under a Blackwell regime.

L. Ross Love, an entrepreneur and former Procter & Gamble executive who was once considered one of the nation's most powerful black corporate managers, maintains that the group needs to make the case for Blackwell despite his party affiliation. "This is an incredibly significant campaign from a national standpoint. What it means to this country to see an African American essentially run a state that is in trouble, make it a financially and economically stronger part of this country, to do it through creativity and significant changes in its fiscal policy, sends an incredible message about the capability of African Americans to lead this country in any role. I think it sends a huge message to our children, to young African Americans, about the possibilities and about what we are capable of."

Adds James, whose firm has handled the legal work for state bond transactions: "In our business, we have to compete every day. And through Ken's whole political life, he's been competing and winning. To tell our people that when we have a candidate who brings all of these capabilities to the table, to vote against him simply because he is a Republican is almost a crime. It sends the wrong message throughout the entire community. Secondly, most of our presidential aspirants come from governors. So we have to continue to build leadership not only locally but also nationally. Ken has that kind of capability."

IT Blackwell knows that it's premature to think about a trip to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. With Election Day weeks away, the 58-year-old must focus on the toughest campaign in his 30-year political career--one in which most political pundits cast him as a long shot. In order to capture the statehouse, he needs to woo voters in urban hubs as well as rural counties. If successful, he will earn his page in the history books. Only one African American has ever been elected governor--L. Douglas Wilder, a Democrat, who took the helm of the state of Virginia roughly two decades ago.

HISTORY IN THE MAKING

At no other time in modern political history have so many African Americans had a shot to gain national and statewide office under the Republican banner. Besides Blackwell, former gridiron great and sports commentator Lynn Swann is seeking the governorship of Pennsylvania. And in Maryland, Lt. Gov. Michael Steele is battling to become the first black senator from that state and the sixth African American to serve in the U.S. Senate. In fact, Steele would become the first black Republican since reconstruction to win a seat in the U.S. Senate since Edward Brooke of Massachusetts was elected in 1966. (Democrats also have two black contenders for statewide and national office this year: Rep. Harold Ford, who is running for a U.S. Senate seat in Tennessee and former Clinton administration official Deval Patrick, who is campaigning for the governorship of Massachusetts.)

These are not symbolic races. They're high-stakes contests that may determine if Republicans maintain control of key states and of Congress. Or they could serve as a referendum on the GOP and, in particular, the policies of the Bush administration. Moreover, many political analysts foresee the statewide and congressional races having a dramatic impact on the 2008 presidential election. In fact, the GOP considers Blackwell's campaign a must-win since historically no Republican president has ever won the White House without taking the state of Ohio.

Ron Walters, a political analyst and director of the African American Leadership Institute, say the Republicans are using these candidates to play a numbers game. "The Republicans have been trying to make inroads into the black vote. It is not so much the fact that they thought they were going to win the black vote, but traditionally, the strategy has been to try to get a sliver of the black vote," he says. "If they could get at least 15% of the black vote then they can cut into enough close races and cost the Democrats the victory. And that's been the objective."

Walters further applies his calculus to the Steele campaign: "You see that in a state like Maryland where Steele is running and right now he's polling about 24% of the black vote. If you got up as high as 35% or 40%, he would be running even with Ben Cardin, who is the white Democratic candidate running for the Senate. You put forward Steele and, hopefully, in a state that's 2-to-1 Democrat, he would get enough of the black Democratic votes to win."

For black Republicans, this day has been a long time coming. In fact, some believe the recent slate of candidates is a healthy development and may make the majority of African Americans less beholden to the Democratic Party. Says Joe Rogers, the former Republican lieutenant governor of Colorado and only one of four blacks to ever hold such an elected position: "Well, I think what you see happening around the country right now is something that is remarkable and good for the country to be quite frank with you. The key issue for us as African Americans is that we have to have key people at every table in America. There ought to be no place within American society in which we do not have a presence. And clearly in the context of both political parties in the United States, we have to have not just the presence at the Democratic Party table, but we ought to have a presence at the Republican Party table. That way, our interests are consistently protected as a people regardless of which party is in power."

But black Republicans may have the same challenges as Democrats when trying to snare white votes in statewide or national races. According to a recent study of voter patterns between 1982 and 2000, published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics, whites who belong to the Republican and Democratic parties are less likely to vote for their parties' nominee if he or she is black--regardless of the candidate's track record and credentials. Moreover, white Republicans are 25% more likely on average to vote for a Democratic senatorial candidate when the GOP candidate is black.

It's nearly impossible for any Republican candidate to win without evangelical support given the political might of organizations tied to the religious right. Blackwell, who favors faith-based initiatives and opposes abortion and same-sex marriages, has made successful inroads into that constituency, giving him considerable crossover appeal.

Black candidates don't have a lock on the African American vote, either. Conservative positions on a range of issues could alienate a number of African American voters unwilling to break with the Democratic Party. "In this day and time, black Republicans are no more capable of getting elected without a black base than Beyonce winning a Grammy without a black base," asserts C. Adrienne Rhodes, a Republican candidate for a New York House of Representatives seat in 2000. She maintains the new crop of candidates need a combination of "crossover power" and resources from the GOP.

Rogers, on the other hand, believes candidates could attract African Americans through a faith-based campaign. "The vote of evangelicals is critical, in particular for African American candidates who are Republicans," he says. "Keep in mind who we are talking about when you mention conservatives. Among African Americans, what you're really taking about is traditional values. When you ask about the value base that we have as African Americans as a whole, there's no doubt that our values are based on a strong tradition. Whether [Blackwell] is labeled as a conservative, he is a traditional values person who cuts across lines and has a direct appeal, I think, to African Americans. The same thing is true for Steele in Maryland [and] Swann in Pennsylvania. The question is: Are you willing to cross that divide to vote for a Republican who shares [your] values or are you simply going to maintain your vote as a Democrat because that's what you've always done?"

But some black Republicans have taken extreme measures to ensure African American turnout in the GOP's favor. Washington-based National Black Republican Association (NBRA) recently ran a controversial 60-second radio spot asserting, among other things, that the Democratic Party gave birth to the Ku Klux Klan and that the revered late civil rights leader Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. was a Republican. The ad highlights a political discussion between two women with one stating that "Dr. King was a real man. You know he was a Republican." The spot then makes claims that Democrats "passed black codes and Jim Crow laws, started the Ku Klux Klan, fought all civil rights legislation from the 1860s to the 1960s, and released those vicious dogs and fire hoses on blacks." The ad also refers to GOP as the party that "freed us from slavery and put our right to vote in the Constitution" and "started the NAACP, affirmative action, and the HBCUs [historically black colleges and universities]." Noted historians have already disputed the factual accuracy of the ad.

Shortly after the airing of the ad, Steele released a statement demanding that the NBRA pull the spot. He said: "NBRA's current radio ad is insulting to Marylanders and should come down immediately. Although they may have good intentions, there is no room for this kind of slash-and-burn partisan politics in the important conversation about how to best bring meaningful change to Washington, D.C. and get something done for Maryland. This is exactly the kind of politics Marylanders are sick of and why it is time to change this Washington brand of cut-throat politics."

NBRA President Francis Rice, who could not prove such claims as King's partisanship, refuses to cancel the ads, which have also aired in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Florida.

A BRIDGE TO STEELE

Of the three candidates, Steele has most positioned himself as being outside of the Republican establishment. In a state with a history of voting Democratic in statewide elections (when Robert Erich Jr. and Steele won the 2002 election, it was the first Republican ticket to win the statehouse in 40 years), Steele created what he calls a "crossover campaign" designed to gain as much as 25% of the black vote. When the 47-year-old former international investment lawyer and party chairman launched his campaign, he promised to be a "bridge of steel" between Democrats and Republicans, between Capitol Hill and Main Street. During the campaign, Steele has crossed party lines and showed up at a fundraiser for his "old friend," black Democratic Rep. Albert Wynn. In fact, Steele criticized the Bush administration's handling of the Iraq War and response to Hurricane Katrina: "What I feel is a need to be honest with Maryland voters--that means giving straight talk and not being afraid to criticize what's wrong in both parties. When I disagree with the president, I stand up and [say] so. As I do when I agree with him. The voters deserve no less," he says. "Hurricane Katrina was our 9-11, and it reminded us of something many have forgotten--there are still poor people in America. When President Bush went to New York after the terrorist attacks, he did not just fly over, he got on the ground and met with those affected by the attacks and the first responders courageously working to save lives. He should have done the same in New Orleans."

These moves have enabled Steele to garner support that a GOP candidate would not normally receive. In fact, he recently received an endorsement from entrepreneur Russell Simmons. Says Steele: "Russell and I both know not enough people in either party are willing to even say the word 'poverty,' much less do anything about it. That's why I have unveiled an economic empowerment agenda that I will take with me to the United States Senate. Empowerment creates opportunity that poverty will never let you see. Unlike many in my party, I recognize the need to increase the minimum wage--and place individuals on the path toward greater earning power--is long overdue. And unlike many in the other party, I know we need to lower the taxes that kill so many small, minority- and women-owned businesses before they even get started."

According to campaign finance records released in early September, Steele is running neck-and-neck with his rival, Rep. Ben Cardin, who became the Democratic nominee after defeating former NAACP head Kweisi Mfume in the primary. But Steele appears to have managed his cash more efficiently. At press time, records reveal that he's raised roughly $5.2 million, spending only $2.1 million and holding about $3.1 million in reserve. He has received as much as $4 million in individual contributions and has received significant support from small businesses. On the other hand, Cardin, who raised $5.4 million, has already spent about $4 million and has only $1.6 million in cash on hand.

Steele's goal is to turn those campaign funds into votes. Through a well-coordinated ad blitz, he is seeking to get his message to voters and capture the crossover bloc needed to oust Cardin. His strategy may be working: a recent three-poll average by pollster.com indicates a close race, with Steele behind Cardin by only 6 points--48% to 42%.

SCRAMBLING FOR SUPPORT

When Swann decided to run for office, Pennsylvania Republicans greeted the news with the same euphoria as the Pittsburgh Steelers fans who watched him make touchdowns. Despite being a political novice, the GOP felt Swann could give Democratic incumbent Ed Rendell a run for his money. His celebrity--Swann played in four Super Bowl victories and was named MVP in Super Bowl X in 1976--would make him attractive to Pennsylvania voters. In fact, State Senate President Pro Tempore Robert Jubelirer called Swann "the best communicator" since Ronald Reagan and "Ed Rendell's worst nightmare."

Using the slogan "Winning Starts Here," Swann developed a platform that focused on property tax relief, reduced government spending, and welfare reform. But his campaign failed to gain traction. Three consecutive Rasmussen Reports polls have given Rendell a double-digit lead. The latest survey shows the Democrat with 50% of the vote to Swann's 40%. Moreover, Swann has reportedly raised $3.7 million, compared to Rendell's war chest of $26 million.

Political analysts maintain that Swann will need a Hail Mary play to win this race. Throughout Pennsylvania's political history, challengers have never unseated an incumbent governor. It doesn't look likely to happen now. For one, Rendell's political machine is just too powerful. And, offers David Bositis, senior political analyst at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies: "Swann's running on traditional Republican issues--pro-business, lower taxes--and has no unique set of issues of his own."

CREDENTIALS AND CONTROVERSY

Blackwell has solid credentials--former Cincinnati mayor, ex-diplomat, former undersecretary of HUD, state treasurer, secretary of state--that, some say, should have made him a shoo-in for the governor's seat. Says Rev. Floyd Flake, a former Democratic Congressman who serves as president of Wilberforce University in Ohio and the Blackwell campaign co-chairman: "If he were not a Republican, with his background, the reality is most African Americans would be giving him their full support." However, over the years, his political stances have drawn heat from conservatives and liberals alike. As Cincinnati's mayor, he was at odds with the business establishment when he challenged majority banks' lending practices to minority customers. However, when he ran as the Republican nominee for a congressional seat 16 years ago, he came out against the Civil Rights Act of 1990 and drew the ire of civil rights groups.

Blackwell's biggest controversy involves the 2004 presidential election. As Ohio Secretary of State, Blackwell oversees the state's electoral process and, during that race, handled a multitude of complaints regarding voting machine failures and confusion over polling site changes. Over the past two years, some Democrats have charged that Blackwell engineered voting irregularities to suppress minority voter turnout and steal the election for Bush. Asserts Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-Ohio), the only black woman on the powerful House Ways and Means Committee: "Throughout the course of [the 2000 and 2004] elections, Ken Blackwell as Secretary of State in my opinion has done things to frustrate people's access to the ballot box. The record is replete with instances in which he had an opportunity to ensure people's access to the ballot and he did not. [Blackwell] served as chair of the Bush re-election campaign in Ohio; it's not illegal but it truly creates an appearance of impropriety and makes people think, 'how could he chair the campaign for the president and then be the one responsible for ensuring that we have a fair election?"

Blackwell characterizes such criticism as ludicrous. "Do you think Mrs. Blackwell raised a dumb child? Why would I suppress the black vote when I understood how well I do in the African American community?" Blackwell asks. He says there were a record number of blacks that voted in Ohio in 2004. (Bush won 16% of the African American vote in Ohio--5 percentage points above his national share.) Although none of the allegations have been proven, Strickland has used the imbroglio to attack Blackwell's credibility as a candidate.

Jones says she will work hard to ensure that Blackwell doesn't occupy the governor's mansion. "I support affirmative action. He doesn't believe in affirmative action. He's anti-gay. I'm a big supporter of the Human Bights Campaign. He uses religion as a bat. I use religion as a support," she says, rattling off her views of his negatives. "He's saying, 'Make history with Blackwell.' Let him be the first African American governor in the state of Ohio. I'm not going to fault [black Democrats] if they choose to vote for him. I believe he is misleading them as to his position on issues that are important to African Americans. The only thing that he keeps talking about is that he has hired [African Americans] in his position and that he has given them access to jobs and opportunities. My response to that is [he's helped] an elite few just as George Bush helps an elite few. If he really wanted to help the greater good, his position on a lot of policies would be totally different."

Blackwell's political skin is made of rawhide. He doesn't waver from his political convictions--regardless of how unpopular they may be. He believes his platform reflects his experiences and the pulse of his constituents. A former entrepreneur who has created energy and media companies, Blackwell pushes job creation through privatization of the Ohio Turnpike. He's a former educator who believes in parents' rights to choose public, charter, or alternative schooling. As a life-long member of the National Rifle Association, he's a staunch advocate of the right to bear arms.

Blackwell, who once trailed Strickland in polls by double digits, has been gaining momentum. The Wall Street Journal Zogby International Poll showed in late September that the race had narrowed 5.7 points with Blackwell receiving 41.8% to Strickland's 47.5%. In a race in which both candidates have raised more than $21 million--the most expensive ever in the state of Ohio--Blackwell is catching up with Strickland in fundraising as well. He has raised nearly $10 million (Bush's attendance at a fundraiser for Blackwell added $1.5 million to his coffers) while his opponent amassed nearly $11.2 million.

Says Blackwell, "I want to be clear that this is a big race and there are a couple of strategies. My opponent will make this race between him and Bob Taft, him and George Bush, him and the war in Iraq. My job is to make this a choice between me and him. When you make it a choice between me and him, it's going to be clear to the general population--and the African American population in particular--who is the better choice, because we have measurable track records."

Blackwell knows the ultimate test will be conducted at the polls. Will conservative white voters pull the lever for a black candidate even though they share his values? Has Blackwell's message of economic empowerment connected with enough blacks willing to break ranks with the Democratic Party? The answers will be revealed on Election Day.

--Additional reporting by Hyacinth B. Carbon and Tennille H. Robinson