Ripple effect: turnout a key: passion over presidential race likely to affect other contests.

You see it on bumper stickers, at coffee klatches and in the recent sold-out screenings of Michael Moore's "Fahrenheit 9/11." With just 90 days to go before the Nov. 2 election, California Democrats are fired up as they haven't been for years.

While their chief objective may be getting President Bush removed from office, the prospect of a large turnout in a heavily Democratic state could have a dramatic impact elsewhere on the ballot.

It probably won't have much effect on the one statewide race, where Democratic U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer is running for re-election against challenger and former Secretary of State Bill Jones. Boxer holds a wide lead in both polls and is expected to win by a large margin.

But the scenario might be different in down-ballot campaigns, particularly the dozen or so close races for state Assembly seats. This could be potentially significant as Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger seeks to diminish the Democratic dominance in Sacramento.

A heavy Democratic vote is likely to have the most impact in the state and local ballot measures.

California voters will decide whether to keep or repeal SB 2, the employer-paid healthcare mandate, whether to restrict the ability of people to file "unfair business practice" lawsuits, and whether to tack on a surcharge to telephone bills, among other measures. Business groups are expected to spend over $30 million on these three measures alone, the most they've spent on any election in recent years.

Traditionally, higher turnouts--especially among Democrats--are not good for business interests. That's because their most reliable support comes from a smaller core of mostly Republican voters.

This year, a number of forces are combining to drive Democratic turnout: antipathy toward Bush, the war in Iraq, lingering anger over the outcome of the 2000 presidential election and the possible effect of films such as "Fahrenheit 9/11" and even "The Manchurian Candidate."

"The Democrats are more motivated than they've been in decades," said Steve Hopcraft, a Democratic consultant and campaign manager for Proposition 66, a measure reforming the state's "Three Strikes" law.

But while the Democratic base may be motivated now, voter turnout in California has been sliding over the last 40 years. Barely half (52 percent) of eligible Californians cant ballots in the November 2000 presidential election, compared with 69 percent in 1960.

And since California is not expected to be a battleground state in the presidential elections, the Bush and Kerry campaigns are unlikely to spend much on campaign advertising and "get-out-the-vote" efforts.

More reliable turnout projections would normally come with the expected surge in voter registrations that typically takes place about two months before an election. But this year, that barometer may not apply, said Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder Conny McCormack. So many people registered for last year's recall election, there may not be that many new registrants this time around.

Nonetheless, political strategists are factoring in the expectation of higher Democrat turnout. Business groups, for example, are expected to cast their ads on more universal themes that appeal to both parties, rather than appealing primarily to their natural Republican allies.

Take Proposition 72, the referendum on the employer-paid health care law former Gov. Gray Davis signed into law last October. Business groups placed the referendum on the law, known as SB 2, on the ballot earlier this year with plans to campaign against it.

In a low-turnout election, or one with a higher percentage of Republican voters, the locus of business arguments would be on the burden the law places on employers and the potential to impede economic growth. But the prospect of higher Democrat turnout has prompted a shift in focus to the part of the law requiring employers that don't provide health care insurance to put money into a government fund.

"Our internal polling is very clear that Democrats and Republicans alike hate government-run health care," said Sara Lee, spokeswoman for the California Chamber of Commerce, which is leading the anti-SB 2 campaign.

Lee said business groups have not shifted their campaign on the measure to restrict lawsuits over unfair business practices. "Our polling shows that people across the board, regardless of party affiliation, believe you should have a client that's actually been harmed before you can file a lawsuit," she said.

One key to the outcome of both measures is Schwarzenegger, who has said he opposes SB 2 and wants to rein in unfair business practice lawsuits. The governor has said he plans to campaign with business groups; if he follows through, he could offset much of the Democratic surge.

Some subtle shifts in campaign tactics are also taking place.

"With this higher-than-expected turnout, you have to pay more attention to occasional voters who don't necessarily follow all the issues closely," Hopcraft said. "We're going to be seeing voters who haven't come out to vote for eight years and who may not come out to vote again for eight more years."

That means more expensive campaigns targeting both habitual voters and occasional voters, with each group getting slightly different messages.

Still, get-out-the-vote efforts of unions and other allied groups are expected to be easier than in other years. "We haven't seen this kind of voter antipathy among Democrats towards a sitting president in many years," said Nathan Ballard, spokesman for the California Labor Federation. "We're prepared to take full advantage of that."

The labor group is leading the campaign in support of SB 2 and, with consumer allies, is opposing the effort to rein in unfair business practice lawsuits.

Most of the competitive candidate races are in moderate areas of the Central Valley. Perhaps the closest race is in the Hanford region, where Democrat Assemblywoman Nicole Parra--who won two years ago by just a few hundred votes--is facing off against Republican Dean Gardner.

In Los Angeles County, there is a close race for an open state Assembly seat in the Long Beach area vacated by termed-out Democrat Assemblyman Alan Lowenthal. Democrat state Sen. Betty Karnette is battling former Republican Rep. Steve Kuykendall for the right to succeed Lowenthal.

The prospect of higher Democratic turnout could also impact various bond and tax measures on state and local ballots. Democrats are traditionally more amenable to these spending measures.

Proposition 63 would establish a 1 percent tax on personal incomes over $1 million to fund mental health services.

L.A. County voters in November will also face a measure hiking the county's sales tax rate half a percent (from 8.25 percent to 8.75 percent) to fund the hiring of more public safety officers.