Riordan Candidacy Considered Strong.

If L.A. Mayor Richard Riordan follows through on his intention to explore running for governor, his high name recognition, deep pocketbook and moderate political stance should immediately vault him to the front of the short list of Republican candidates to challenge incumbent Democratic Gov. Gray Davis.

But, political observers said, running for governor would be no cakewalk, either in next March's Republican primary or in the general election against Davis. And others question whether the termed-out mayor would have the proverbial "fire in the belly" to take on such a daunting campaign.

Last week, in interviews with this paper and other media outlets, Riordan said he's looking to form an exploratory committee -- the first official step in running for a major political office -- before he leaves office on June 30. He added that he would make a final decision on whether to run by the end of the summer.

"I've had more people come to me about this, particularly leading Democrats, which I find particularly amazing," Riordan said in an interview with Business Journal reporters and editors last week.

One prominent Democrat close to Riordan, billionaire businessman Eli Broad, said Riordan that would "make a formidable candidate" if he were to run, but that he hasn't personally encouraged him.

"If I were to give him advice as a friend, it would be to take a rest after serving eight years as mayor, not to go directly from the frying pan into the fire, so to speak. But it's really up to him," Broad said.

The initial call that set off the current round of speculation was from the nation's top Republican, President George Bush. In that call, ostensibly to congratulate Riordan on his 71st birthday, Bush reportedly told Riordan he would make a "great governor."

At the time, Riordan's top press aide Ben Austin said that Riordan was "keeping an open mind, but he's certainly leaning against running."

But in just three short weeks, Riordan has changed his mind and hurried up his time schedule. In fact, one of the oft-cited theories making the rounds -- and one to which Riordan himself alluded last week -- is that he endorsed former Assembly Speaker Antonio Villaraigosa for mayor with an eye toward the governor's mansion.

"Hopefully, he (Villaraigosa) would have some good thoughts toward me in his mind and would either be neutral or have less fire in his belly for the Democrats in that (gubernatorial) race," Riordan said.

What happened in those three weeks that could have changed Riordan's mind?

Certainly all the attention he has been getting could have made some difference. But just as important, some political observers argue, was the release earlier this month of new polls that show how vulnerable Davis is. For the first, time since he took office, Davis' approval rating has sunk below 50 percent (46 percent according to one poll).

"Republicans now sense they have a shot at getting back the governor's mansion," said local Republican political consultant Allan Hoffenblum. "And right now, on paper at least, Riordan looks to be the best candidate out there to challenge Davis. He's got name identification and political experience. He's got plenty of money, he's got a moderate political stance, and he's shown he can get crossover and Latino votes."

The other two Republican candidates considering runs for governor -- Secretary of State Bill Jones and local investment banker William Simon Jr. -- lack one or more of those attributes, Hoffenblum pointed out.

But political observers do cite some downsides. Perhaps the biggest is a feeling of disenchantment with Riordan among more conservative Republicans, particularly after he has endorsed so many Democrats for office -- U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein and Villaraigosa, among others.

"Look, if he wants to face Gray Davis in a race for governor, he's first got to make it past the Republican primary," said longtime local political observer Joe Scott. "And the problem is that moderate Republicans don't control the state Republican Party -- the conservatives do. You've got to win their hearts and minds to win the primary. And this is a guy who's rarely, if ever, been to a state Republican convention."

Riordan has tried to curry favor with Republicans recently -- most notably by inviting leading party members to his home for some strategizing on how to increase the Republicans' shriveled base in California. And he can now cite Bush's encouragement to counterbalance any charges that he lacks support among Republicans.

But even with all the words of encouragement that have come his way in recent weeks, Riordan may have an even deeper problem: the perception that he may not have the "fire in the belly" to get through a very rigorous campaign. Even if he were to make it past the primary, he would still have to face Davis, his $30 million-plus war chest and a penchant among Davis' aides for going for his opponents' jugular.