Ridership Projections Raise Questions About Light Rail.

With construction set to resume later this year on the $684 million Pasadena Blue Line, local transit officials have lowered their ridership projections, prompting some critics to question whether the light-rail project is worth the effort.

The Metropolitan Transportation Authority now projects an average of only 19,500 riders each weekday when the 13.7-mile line from Los Angeles to Pasadena opens in mid-2003.

While that is expected to increase to about 25,000 by 2010, it's well below the 32,500 riders that MTA officials once estimated for the line -- and a far cry from other early projections of at least 50,000.

MTA Officials say they lowered their projection after seeing what happened with other light-rail lines in L.A. and elsewhere in the nation. Critics contend the revised figure is an attempt to lower expectations so that the actual figures will look good.

By comparison, the Red Line from Los Angeles to Hollywood has about 40,000 riders a day, and 55,000 passengers travel on the Blue Line from L.A. to Long Beach.

"The Blue Line to Long Beach is an effective system because it moves 55,000 people a day, but it was so costly to build ($1 billion) and maintain that it remains one of the most inefficient ways to transport these people," said Brian Taylor, professor of public policy at UCLA. "The Blue Line to Pasadena will be less effective because it will move far fewer people; it will therefore be even less efficient than its Long Beach counterpart. The only way you can argue that it's worth it is if it serves some larger political or environmental objective."

Construction costs mount

Jim Moore, professor of civil engineering and public policy at USC, said bus service might be a more efficient alternative.

"For the same amount of money that it cost to build the Long Beach Blue Line, you could pay for 17 of the MTA's 22 busiest (bus) lines, which collectively carry about 16 times the number of people," said Moore. "The numbers are likely to be even more dramatic with the Pasadena Blue Line."

While ridership estimates have gone down, construction costs for the Pasadena line have mounted over the years, largely because of delays as construction was moved out of the control of the MTA and into a new authority set up by the state. The main contract for building the route will be put out for bids by March and is expected to be completed this summer.

Two years ago, the MTA was mired in financial difficulties and suspended work on all rail lines except for the Red Line. As a result of the delay and other factors, the cost per mile to build the Pasadena Blue Line is now estimated to be fully 50 percent higher than the average light-rail line.

Richard Thorpe, chief executive of the Los Angeles to Pasadena Metro Blue Line Construction Authority, said much of the line will run above or below street-level, which increases construction costs.

"Any time you have grade separations, the costs of those segments increase 10-fold," Thorpe said.

The first two to three miles through Chinatown will be elevated. Then there will be two areas, including stretches of Old Pasadena, where the line will go beneath a street that will then be rebuilt over the top of the tracks for safety reasons.

Ridership figures in line

Finally, three stations at the end of the route will be built in the median of the Foothill (210) Freeway and will need elevators and raised platforms, which will also drive up costs.

As for the ridership projections, Thorpe said they are in line with opening figures for a similar mil project in Salt Lake City, which he oversaw before being hired by the Pasadena Blue Line authority. "Most light-rail projects open at around 20,000 to 25,000 passengers and build from there," he said.

The question is whether the Pasadena line's growth will rival the ridership success of the Long Beach Blue Line. When it opened in 1991, that line had 21,000 passengers each weekday. The growth was fairly steady until the mid-1990s, when parallel bus routes were cut, according to Keith Killough, the MTA's deputy executive officer for planning. Then passenger counts really took off, reaching a peak of 59,000 during one weekday last October before settling back to about 55,000.

"Frankly, we didn't expect to hit 55,000 for another 10 years," Killough said.

But there are no competing bus lines to be cut along the Pasadena Blue Line. What's more, he said, MTA planners do not expect to see thousands of people from the adjacent, highly congested Pasadena (110) Freeway leave their cars to ride the rails. Most of the riders will come from the closer-in communities of Highland Park and Mount Washington.

"This will be a relatively slow line, so people won't save that much time coming all the way in from Pasadena," Killough said. "Of course, if the freeway congestion levels increase, that could change."

But even if congestion increases, drivers won't be likely to switch over, especially if they don't live and work within walking distance from the stations.

"You might save a little time traveling along the rail line, but your door-to-door travel time might end up being longer once you factor in transfers to buses or walking," UCLA's Taylor said.