Rice's ME Tour.

Facing a barrage of opposition at home over the new Iraq policy, US Secretary of state Rice on Jan. 13 took the White House's case to the Middle East to try to drum up regional support. But there too she is likely to find plenty of scepticism that deploying another 21,500 troops mostly in Baghdad can bring an end to the raging sectarian conflict. President Bush's decision to ignore calls for a withdrawal from Iraq and to take a hard line on Iran in his Jan. 10 speech will find backing in Israel as well as some of the pro-western Arab states that rely on US protection and are increasingly paranoid about Iranian influence. There is speculation that Israel might unilaterally attack Iran's nuclear installations (see news3-IranInColdWarJan15-07).

Arab officials on Jan. 12 questioned Bush's emphasis on a military solution and lamented his only brief mention of peace between Israel and Palestinians - the issue Arab rulers consider the top priority. The FT on Jan. 13 quoted an Arab diplomat as saying: "The focus for Iraq [in Bush's Jan. 10 speech and Ms Rice's tour] was mainly on troops, while we believe the focus should be directed on a political resolution".

Comments in the Arab media have been more scathing, with Saudi Arabia's English-language Arab News saying the new American initiative "speaks volumes about desperation yet is a sure path to damnation".

Ms Rice's tour includes stops in Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories, and a meeting in Kuwait with foreign ministers from the six GCC states plus Egypt and Jordan - the camp the US sees as "moderate" in the struggle against Iran, Syria and militant groups backed by the two states. The tour is designed to enlist support for the new Iraq policy by pressing Sunni governments to use their influence with Iraq's Sunni Arabs and help stabilise Iraq, and to step up their diplomatic backing for the elected government of Maliki.

Arab officials, including in Saudi Arabia, have been arguing against a short-term US withdrawal, fearing it would worsen Iraq's civil conflict and force them to intervene on the side of the Sunni Arab minority. They want Iraq's Shi'ite-dominated government to crack down on Shi'ite militias and agree to political concessions that would give the Sunnis - marginalised since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein - a greater stake in the new state.

The FT quoted an Arab official as saying: "We don't see the Iraqi government as having great determination or the tools for an inclusive political process".

The Bush team is looking to create an Israeli-Sunni Arab front against Shi'ite Iran. On Jan. 10 Bush coupled tough warnings to Tehran with a promise of increased intelligence co-operation with Arab allies and the deployment of Patriot missiles in the GCC region. While most pro-west states are desperate to check Iran's power and its ability to pursue a nuclear programme, senior officials say working more closely with the US on Iran requires first that Washington champions a new drive to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

Arab enthusiasm for weakening Iran is balanced against fears that US-Iranian tensions could drag the region into another military conflict. The stand-off between the US and Iran over Iraq and the nuclear programme is already hardening sectarian tensions across the Middle East. Few observers believe the Bush administration has the political will to engage seriously in a new peace process, particularly at a time when MP Ehud Olmert has been weakened by the war with Lebanon's Hizbullah, and the Palestinians are locked in a violent internal struggle.

Senior Arab officials, however, say quiet moves in recent months - including a reported meeting between senior Israeli and Saudi officials - give them some hope that Washington might be prompted to push for a revival of Palestinian-Israeli negotiations on the basis of a 2002 Arab peace initiative which the US ignored at the time and Israel rejected.

Iraqi President Jalal Talabani was to travel to Syria on Jan. 14 in an effort to normalise relations with a country accused of allowing its territory to be used as a supply conduit for Sunni Arab insurgents. The visit, in the wake of Bush's new Iraq strategy - which takes a hardline attitude towards Syria - fits what seems to be an emerging good cop/bad cop dynamic in the relationship between the three countries. Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said security issues to be raised by Talabani included "border control, the activities of a number of members of Saddam's regime, and control over the flow of foreign fighters".