Retailers jingle their bells over Yule's sales prospects.

They are expecting major rebound for holiday season

Southland retailers are predicting bang-up sales this holiday season, based on the rising tide of consumer confidence and robust sales for the year so far.

"The signs are good for probably one of the best Christmases anybody's had in L.A. for a long time," said Jack Kyser, chief economist with the L.A. County Economic Development Corp.

The past four holiday seasons in L.A. County, as a result of the deep recession, have ranged from dismal to humdrum.

But now, "there's a general attitude that customers are more positive and they're buying," said Marie Joyce, L.A.-area spokeswoman for Seattle-based upscale department store retailer Nordstrom Inc.

Consumers "are upbeat this year," echoed Keith Foxe, a spokesman for consumer electronics retailer Good Guys Inc.

The Southland is losing fewer jobs this year than last, one of the reasons for the increase in consumer confidence, Kyser said. During October, L.A. County was losing jobs at an annualized rate of 38,000, less than half the annualized rate of 80,000 jobs being lost in October 1993.

Retail sales figures indicate that local consumers are buying more this year. Overall retail sales in L.A. County increased every month through June, compared with their respective months in 1993, according to figures released by the U.S. Department of Commerce. No data was available beyond June.

One chain participating in that overall improvement is JC Penney Co. Inc.

Year-to-date sales at Southland JC Penney stores are up by "double digit" percentages, compared with 1993, said Special Events Manager Dave Oliver.

Thus, "we're expecting our (holiday) sales to be ahead of last year," Oliver said, but not necessarily a double-digit percentage increase. "I would hope for (sales) to continue on the same trend, but we're not planning for it to be that good," he said.

Likewise, at the Good Guys, sales at stores open at least 12 months have been up so far this year compared with 1993. "That fares well for what this Christmas is going to be like," Foxe said. The bulk of San Francisco-based Good Guys stores are located in Southern California.

Furthermore, based on sales increases during August and September, officials at the Neiman-Marcus Group department store in Beverly Hills are projecting holiday sales "ahead of last year," said Kirk Gerou.

Retail industry observers concurred with retailers' bullish forecasts.

"We'll see real growth this Christmas season," said Richard Giss, partner in charge of retailing with the downtown office of accounting firm Deloitte & Touche. "I think (retailers) are looking for sales increases in the strong single digits, maybe 5 or 6 percent."

To prepare for the anticipated herds of customers, some retailers are stocking sizable inventories, but others are maintaining inventory levels similar to those of Christmas 1993.

Inventories this holiday season at the Southland JC Penney stores, for example, are slightly overstocked compared to last year, Oliver said.

But at Neiman Marcus, "we'll probably maintain about the same inventory level as last year," Gerou said.

Hot gift categories

Industry consultant Giss added that most retailers will increase their inventories a bit this holiday season, "but they're not going to bet the farm on this one." Although optimistic, retailers are still exercising caution because they know Christmas sales have been weak for several years running, he explained.

Also, although consumers are expected to mostly buy practical items, such as clothing, as they have in years past, they might choose more expensive fabrics than they did before, Joyce said.

For example, customers are expected to buy sweaters and jackets, but they might aim for those made of cashmere or leather, which are expensive materials, she said.

At Neiman Marcus customers are expected to buy cashmere sweaters, scarves and bathrobes, and at Los Angeles-based Broadway Stores Inc., customers are expected to buy cashmere sweaters, spokesmen said.

Broadway also plans to divert from its traditional Christmas stock by offering gifts for pets and ecology-themed gifts, such as walking sticks and books about hiking trails throughout the Southland, Ihle said.

In addition, Broadway plans to sell educational gifts for children, such as puzzles and arts and crafts, he said.

Since consumer confidence is up, customers at Good Guys are expected to buy big-ticket items this holiday season, Foxe said.

These items include cellular phones, big-screen TVs, and a new digital satellite system made by Radio Corp. of America. The system's centerpiece is a small satellite dish, 18 inches in diameter, capable of receiving more than 175 channels, Foxe said.

"It was just introduced a couple of weeks ago, and we can't keep it on our shelves. That's going to be a sell-out item," he said. The system retails for about $500.