Retailers can expect blockbuster season in all categories.

Each year, for the past three or four holiday seasons, we've prepared ourselves for a retailing boom that never came. This year, though, it's pretty sure to be the real thing. People finally seem to be convinced that the economy isn't just having a temporary spree; that the good times really are here for a long visit.

The result of this optimism, plus an increase in higher-paying jobs in the metro area, will be a blockbuster season for New York retailers, both in Manhattan and in suburban malls.

I foresee the biggest gains coming in apparel and accessories,. at all points in the pricing spectrum. Mid-range to higher-end retailers will see the most dramatic sales increases, but some of the more price-aggressive will also benefit, especially those that come up with clever promotional packages.

Practically all Manhattan retailers will have a good holiday season, but, as usual, location and advertising will determine the biggest winners. People want to shop and spend this year, and they'll shop at any store that can tempt them. Highly visible stores those in well-trafficked locations with well-known reputations - will naturally have considerable extra leverage, but this year, some of the smaller, less-known stores will do surprisingly well too.

The main reason for this is that while Manhattan has always been a "walking city," it's become even more so in the past couple of years. Crime is way down, tourism is way up, and the intense retail development in Midtown, Chelsea, SoHo and the Flatiron District have created "shopping loops," where shoppers stroll through an area, shopping any store that looks interesting. These neighborhoods have become so attractive and so exciting that people don't like exploring the out-of-the-way corridors. This is really just my fancy way of saying, "shop 'til you drop is back!"

Apparel is far from the only category that's going to gain. Furniture and accessories for the home are going to be strong, as the "nesting" trend continues. The Flatiron District has become a major hotbed of home furnishings activity - anchored by ABC, with its high-end antiques, and Bed, Bath & Beyond, with its competitive pricing - with many other exciting furniture, furnishings and antiques stores in between.

Big-ticket categories are going to be picking up steam. How can we tell? Partly because residential real estate prices in Manhattan - both sales and rentals - have skyrocketed in the past couple of years, and are still rising, as more people are confident enough to set up housekeeping in the heart of the city. This means we're going to be seeing more Manhattanites with money to spend, and what better place to spend it?

Another positive indicator is a recent real estate deal that just about blew my mind: An Audi showroom is moving into a former bank space on 46th Street and Park Avenue! When was the last time a car dealer took space in Midtown? I guess this means Audi's pretty sure it's going to sell some cars!

In the top suburban shopping areas of Connecticut, New Jersey and Long Island, there's not a category that won't do well. Mall retailers have made quantum leaps in their understanding of how to tempt a customer, and this, coupled with this year's exceptional consumer confidence, is bound to lead to record numbers.

All in all, we are heading toward a sparkling holiday season.