Retailers brace for another sparse holiday season.

But discounters, upscale stores express optimism

Southland retailers are likely to perform worse than the rest of the nation during the upcoming Christmas shopping season, although many local retailers are individually expressing optimism, according to industry experts.

Southern California holiday sales are expected to be even with Christmas 1990's rotten performance, while sales in the rest of the country are expected to be up by 2 percent, said Carl Steidtmann, chief economist with Management Horizons, a Dublin, Ohio-based retail consulting firm.

The Yule holiday season is crucial to retailers. Christmas sales at apparel and department stores account for as much as 40 percent of annual sales.

The 1991 Southland Christmas season was the worst in years, though, and was followed by the demise of several Southland retailers. So the prospect that this year's performance will be on a par with last year's is discouraging.

After a yucky Yule last year, Los Angeles-based Carter Hawley Hale Stores Inc., parent of Broadway-Southern California and other department store chains, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in February, and the longstanding Long Beach-based Buffums department store chain closed its doors and liquidated soon afterwards.

A certain number of bankruptcies usually follow each holiday season, but another poor Christmas season in the Southland could bring a bigger round than usual, Steidtmann said.

Still, store inventories nationwide are "very lean" this season -- limiting exposure to poor sales, but also reflecting expectations of a lackluster season -- and there is "no reason to believe Southern California or the Los Angeles area is any different," he said.

Another retail expert agreed. "I think it's going to be bleak," surmised Jon Golisch, partner in charge of retailing in Southern California for Arthur Andersen & Co., an accounting and consulting firm.

Some Southland retailers echoed the same sentiment. "I think Christmas is probably going to be tough," said Allen Oblow, store general manager at a Sears department store in Burbank. "People are going to be very cautious with where they spend their money."

Jo Lawly, senior vice president of marketing and sales promotion for The Broadway, agreed. "We all expect it to be a very difficult Christmas," she said, adding that inventories at department stores are lean.

Yet, upscale and discount retailers were more sanguine.

"It looks to me like it's going to be a very strong November and December," said Bruce Meyer, president of Geary's Beverly Hills, an upscale giftware store.

A similar response came from the discounters. "We're approaching the season aggressively," said Eileen Hupp, assistant vice president of marketing for Dominguez-based Pic 'N' Save Corp. "We're planning on a good Christmas."

Van Nuys-based Adray-Mart Inc., a discount electronics retailer, is banking on a "moderate-to-good" Christmas, said Kam Mateen, director of sales and marketing.

Optimism was also expressed by some mainstream retailers.

Cynthia Carr, a department head at a Toys-R-Us near Hollywood, said officials at her store anticipate a better Christmas than in previous years. Store officials told her they have stored up $4 million more of inventory than last year in preparation for the Yuletide season, she said.

Henshey's, an independent department store in Santa Monica, is gearing up for a "good" but not "spectacular" Christmas, said John Crisa, vice president and general merchandise manager.

There is a general consensus among many local retailers, though, that the Christmas shopping season will be tardy. Thanksgiving arrives late this year, leaving six fewer shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, Steidtmann explained.

Since consumers usually do the bulk of their holiday shopping between Thanksgiving and Christmas, the season will be later and shorter, he said.

In addition, the recession is likely to encourage consumers to hold out on shopping as long as possible with the hope that prices will come down, some retailers say.

"Customers will probably sit back in a tight economy and see where they're going to get the most bang for the buck," Oblow said.

Deborah Bonanno-Raderman, vice president of merchandising for City of Industry-based Stor Furnishings International Inc., made a similar observation. "We're not going to get a strong pre-Thanksgiving gift-buying season," she said.

Retailers also anticipate that shoppers are going to buy gifts that are more basic, more durable and less expensive.

Stor is placing more emphasis this year than last on gifts worth less than $25, Bonanno-Raderman said. These items include picture frames, vases and gift platters, she said.

Because the economy is so tight, consumers want to buy items with longevity, Oblow said, noting that Sears will probably sell a lot of microwaves, camcorders and videocassette recorders.

The hottest selling toys are most likely to be Mutant Ninja Turtles, Little Mermaid figurines and a variety of baby dolls, Carr said.

Overall, consumers will seek products that have a very basic orientation and "will look for durability lasting well beyond Christmas," Steidtmann said.

Some new factors have also been introduced to this year's Yuletide season. One is the 1.25 percent sales tax increase that was instituted statewide last July, which retail experts say should dampen consumer spending.

Another change is taking place in the check-writing department. This is the first year merchants will only be able to ask for one piece of identification when customers write checks.

Hence, TeleCheck Los Angeles, a check verification service, is getting more business, said TeleCheck General Manager Randy Rutledge.