Resurgence In The Shi'ite World - Part 18 - Iraq & Sadr Vs Hakim.

Rivalry between the Sadrist movement, headed by a young mullah Muqtada al-Sadr, and the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC), formerly known as the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), is bringing a major shift in the balance of power in Iraq's Ja'fari Shi'ite community. The SIIC is headed by Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim who in terms of religious ranking is superior to and much older than Sadr. Sadr is less experienced, but potentially more dangerous, than Hakim.

The Hakim and Sadr clans have been rivals for several decades. But what complicates their power struggle now is that Sadr is secretly negotiating with the US, which controls a chaotic Iraq, while Hakim is far more moderate than the young mullah and has been distancing himself gradually from Iran's Shi'ite theocracy.

In an article published in a supplement of MEED's April 20 issue, former US national security adviser Anthony Cordesman - now holding the Arleigh A. Burke chair in strategy at the Centre for Strategic & International Studies in Washington - wrote: [President Bush's] ability to achieve any kind of stability in Iraq is dubious at best... The next US president will inherit an 'Iraq problem'; the main question being whether the US leaves - and tries to influence events from the outside - or is successful enough to stay. If it does win the latter kind of victory, it then faces at least half a decade of further economic and military aid and efforts to achieve real reconciliation [among the Iraqis]".

Cordesman also wrote: "Iran is not emerging as a serious power, but it can be deeply destabilising if its nuclear ambitions, links to Iraq, and threat to the Arab-Israeli peace process are not dealt with" (see news24-MEnuclearRaceJun11-07).

After the May 25 re-emergence of Sadr, parts of Baghdad's Shi'ite slum of "Sadr City" are concerned about his return. People's anxiety has grown after the recent kidnapping of five Britons from the Iraqi Finance Ministry building in Palestine Street close to "Sadr City", where Sadr's Jaysh al-Mahdi (JaM) militiamen are fortified. The abduction, by a dissident JaM faction, led to a joint Iraqi-US and British security operation against the district.

The clashes have expanded to the southern province of Diwaniya. Gulf News on June 7 quoted "Hamza, a citizen of Sadr City", as saying: "Frankly, we do not want trouble in the city because people are distressed and stop their work everyday due to the security imposed by American forces, besides American helicopter raids claiming the lives of many civilians...Sadr's [anti-US] statements are patriotic yet they escalate the confrontation with Americans and make conditions in the neighbourhood very difficult and miserable".

Unlike Sadr who is more of an Arab/Iraqi nationalist than a sectarian Shi'ite militant, Hakim is heavily indebted to the Iranian theocracy and is close to Grand Ayatullah Ali al-Sistani, an Iranian-born and Najaf-based cleric widely regarded in Iraq as the highest religious authority in Ja'fari Shi'ism. Sadr is trying to outsmart Hakim and Sistani by letting JaM factions take orders from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), by far the most powerful military arm of Iran's theocracy. Although Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the head of the Iranian theocracy, in the Ja'fari clerical hierarchy he is inferior to Sistani and other grand ayatullahs (Arabic spelling) in Najaf and their counterparts in Qom and the rest of the Shi'ite world.

According to statistics released by the Iraqi Health Ministry, raids by US warplanes continued every night since the start of the Baghdad security plan in February and each raid destroys two houses and kills at least eight civilians per day in "Sadr City", inhabited by more than 2m people who live below the poverty line. Gulf News quoted "Rahim, who lives in the Hay al-Khaleej district" in "Sadr City", as saying: "I live in a neighbourhood known for its allegiance to...[JaM] and most of its young people, including myself, are involved in this army. After the return of Muqtada al-Sadr, I noticed my mother's concern every time I leave the house".

The Sadr-Hakim power struggle assumed new dimensions in recent weeks because of Sadr's secret negotiations with the US, leaked to the press by the US military spokesman in Iraq (see sbme6IraqIranJun4-07), and the fact that Hakim has been diagnosed in the US of having lung cancer. The Sadr-Hakim rivalry runs deep between these two clans and their background is too complicated even for some Iraq-based US strategists to comprehend - such as the distinction between the Ja'fari supremacism of the late Grand Ayatullah Muhammad-Baqer al-Sadr and the Arab/Iraqi tribalism of his cousin, the late Ayat. Muhammad-Sadeq al-Sadr - Muqtada being a son of the latter (see rim5-IraqIranMay28-07).