Resurgence In The Shi'ite World - Part 12 - Iraq Sunnis Fear Ethnic Cleansing:.

Vice-president Tareq al-Hashemi, Iraq's most senior politician from the Sunni Arab minority, on Dec. 17 said more US troops were needed in Baghdad to stop the "systematic cleansing" of the Sunni community by Shi'ite militias. He said some 3,000 Iraqis were fleeing the country daily and Iraqi forces were insufficient, incompetent and corrupted.

There is intense speculation in Washington that President George W. Bush will propose "surging" some 20,000-30,000 more US troops into Iraq in a last-ditch effort to secure the city and Anbar province. However, in an interview broadcast by CNN, Hashemi who had met Bush at the White House, said there was "no consensus" between the US and Iraq on how to tackle security. He said the Bush administration had told him that US troops were "insufficient to handle the security as required in Baghdad".

Colin Powell, former secretary of state, agreed and said: "We have tried this surge of troops over the summer. I am not persuaded that another surge of troops into Baghdad for the purposes of suppressing this communitarian violence, this civil war, will work".

Sistani Inches Towards Coalition: Iraq's most venerated Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatullah Ali al-Sistani, has tentatively approved an American-backed coalition of Shi'ite, Sunni Arab and Kurdish parties which aims to isolate extremists, particularly the powerful Shi'ite militia leader Muqtada al-Sadr. Since the fall of Saddam Hussein, Sistani has been the spiritual custodian of Shi'ite political dominance in Iraq, corralling the fractious Shi'ite parties into an alliance to rule the country. But Sistani has grown increasingly distressed as the Shi'ite-led government has proved incapable of taming the violence and improving public services. He now appears to be backing away from his demand that the Shi'ite bloc play the dominant political role and that it hold together at all costs.

As the effective arbiter of a Shi'ite role in the planned coalition, Sistani is considered critical to the Iraqi and US effort. The New York Times on Dec. 20 quoted a senior US official as saying: American officials had been told by intermediaries that Sistani "has blessed the idea of forming a moderate front. We wouldn't have gotten this far without his support".

President Bush's National Security Adviser Stephen J. Hadley wrote in a classified memo last month that the Americans should "engage Sistani to reassure and seek his support for a new, non-sectarian political movement". In recent weeks, President Bush has received Shi'ite and Sunni politicians at the White House to encourage them to move forward with the coalition.

Since the American invasion of Iraq, Sistani has refused to meet with anyone from the US government but receives messages through intermediaries. In meetings with Shi'ite politicians at his home in Najaf in recent weeks, the reclusive ayatullah laid out conditions that the new coalition would have to meet to win his full approval, according to Shaikh Humam Hamoudi, a senior Shi'ite legislator. A principal demand, Hamoudi said, was that any political realignment "preserve the unity" of the 130-member Shi'ite parliamentary bloc, the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA). But officials say that stipulation can be interpreted broadly to mean that the Shi'ite bloc be preserved in name only, with its various parties forming their own coalitions with Sunni Arabs or with Kurds.

The new coalition could lead to the effective fragmentation of the ruling Shi'ite bloc because it is unlikely that Sadr, the militia leader, will sign on. Such an open split would weaken Shi'ite control over the government and increase tensions between rival Shi'ite militias, which have periodically clashed. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and his Shi'ite party, Islamic Da'wa, are hesitant about signing on to the coalition. Da'wa members say they are concerned that rival Shi'ite parties are trying to oust Maliki. They suspect the Sunni Arabs' real goal is to erode Shi'ite power. "I think it's a leap into the unknown", said Sami al-Askari, a Shi'ite legislator who advises Maliki, adding: "The negative things are clear, but no one can explain exactly what the positive things are". Shi'ite officials say the disintegration of the Shi'ite bloc is already under way.

Sistani formed the UIA in late 2004 to ensure that religious Shi'ite parties would present a united front in national elections. But the bloc is split by internal rivalries which have intensified. Sadr, who controls 30 seats in parliament and 6 of 38 cabinet positions, ordered his loyalists to withdraw from the government last month to protest a meeting in Jordan between President Bush and PM Maliki, who is beholden to Sadr for political support. Sadr has clashed politically and militarily with the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), Hamoudi's political group.

Perhaps resigned to the frailties of Shi'ite politics, Sistani has not made any recent public statements urging Shi'ite unity, nor has he been able to halt the violence. Hamoudi said of the ayatullah: "He is very sad. He feels he should do something to save Iraq and keep the unity of Iraq and preserve the blood of the people". Sadr's rise to power, mostly on the strength of his Jaysh al-Mahdi militia, has presented something of a challenge to the authority of Sistani. Despite Sistani's preaching of tolerance towards Sunnis, Jaysh al-Mahdi has been a driving force in the bloody cycle of retributive violence, which is killing more than 100 people a day.

Sistani remains profoundly influential among Shi'ites, and the country's top Shi'ite leaders still feel obligated to visit his home - tucked away in downtown Najaf's narrow winding streets - to seek his guidance. Maliki is planning to send a delegation from his party to discuss the nascent coalition with the ayatullah.

The idea of a coalition bridging the major sects and ethnicities first arose in the spring during a weeks-long crisis surrounding the selection of a prime minister. As the discussions dragged on, SCIRI leader Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim approached Kurdish and Sunni Arab politicians about supporting a single candidate. But Sistani blocked the proposal in favor of preserving the Shi'ite bloc. The NYT quoted a US "official familiar with the discussions" as saying: "The word from Najaf then was, 'Thou shalt not do that'".

The idea of the coalition was revisited in recent weeks as a way to revive the political process and perhaps move the country beyond the vicious sectarian politics reflected in the relentless violence in the streets. Hamoudi said: "It's a light of hope in a sky filled with clouds".

The talks are taking place among the two main Kurdish groups, the Sunni-led Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP) and Hakim's SCIRI, which has long sought to lead the government.

American officials have been frustrated with Maliki's political dependence on Sadr, who supported his bid for prime minister. The Americans have tried to reassure Maliki that the range of participating parties gives him the necessary political support to break from Sadr. Maliki has expressed strong interest in the coalition but wants initially to welcome all political parties into its fold rather than to limit membership. That would provide additional political cover for any break with Sadr. The prime minister's proposal, Hamoudi said, "is to start with a very wide door and gradually close it".

Sistani's growing disillusionment with politics is evident to those who visit him. A prominent Shi'ite legislator, Shatha al-Mousawi, said she and other Shi'ite MPs met him recently in his home to try to resolve an issue within the Shi'ite bloc. The ayatullah wanted nothing to do with the matter, she said, adding: "He said, 'It's up to you'".

Since winning 130 of the 275 seats in parliament, the Shi'ite bloc has never coalesced as Sistani intended it to, and factional rivalries have deepened, particularly over the past several months. A law enabling provinces to form autonomous regions, approved in October, was supported by Hakim but bitterly opposed by Sadr and members of the Fadhila Party, a Shi'ite group close to Sadr.

Shi'ite infighting has paralysed the government. Since Sadr's loyalists began boycotting the government last month, the parliament has been unable to form a quorum, preventing the passage of laws. The new coalition is aimed at circumventing that kind of conflict, its leaders say, which is probably why Sistani is willing to lend his support.