Reserve reservations.

What an intriguing issue! It seems the world does have its problems, but nothing that switching to soy-based ink won't cure. For example, one of your quoted experts, Red Cavaney in this case, cites U.S. "undiscovered reserves" at 131 billion barrels.

Recipe for undiscovered reserves: Open a 9x12 inch manila envelope. Grab a handful of paper clips and toss them inside. Seal the envelope. Deliver the sealed envelope to a co-worker on another floor and have her tell you how many paper clips are inside.

Maybe Mr. Cavaney got help from [ESP researcher] Karl Zener with his estimated total, because U.S. oil companies were not so psychic. Despite a 60-percent drilling increase in 2001, they gained only a 2-percent increase in output. But let's say Mr. Cavaney's clairvoyance is on the money. He also stated that the world could last until 2030 without running out of oil. But the United States currently uses 20 million barrels per day. If we could bring all of Mr. Cavaney's 131 billion barrels online tomorrow (instead of the six years it takes to go online after discovery), they would last us 6,550 days, or nearly 18 years, which would be 2023, not 2030. And that's assuming current rates of consumption, meaning that the only way to grow the economy would be to completely offset growth with efficiency so as to keep consumption steady, as well as the ability to extract 100 percent of the oil, which isn't economically feasible.

Besides, no one's saying we're out of oil. Being at the peak means having consumed half the total. The rub comes as constantly increasing consumption bumps up against increased pumping and refining difficulties, until the oil in the ground is worth less than it would cost to get it out of the ground.

I really enjoyed the article and would like to invite Mr. Cavaney to correspond with my bank as to the billions of undiscovered dollars in my savings account. We all love Pollyanna, but maybe we should listen to Dirty Harry. With apologies, I'll paraphrase him here: "I know what you're thinking: 'Is this the peak, or do we have 20 years?' Well, to tell you the truth, I'm not sure myself. But being as this is peak oil we're talking about, the most powerful force since the Black Plague, you've got to ask yourself one question: Do I feel lucky?"

Obviously, Mr. Cavaney does. I believe Harry's next word was, "Sucker."

CAREN BLACK

Titanic Lifeboat Academy

Astoria, Oregon, U.S.A.