Report says blackouts are pending.

Looking west for a clue about how not to provide power for a metropolis, five New York industrial groups combined to issue a report Jan. 25 urging the City and State of New York to take action to prevent further erosion of the area's electricity supply.

The five, which include the Real Estate Board of New York, the New York Building Congress and Building Construction Trades Council of Greater New York, reported the city is running a 315 megawatt deficit that at current rates could grow ten-fold over the next five years, rivaling or even surpassing California's current energy shortage.

The 28-page report, entitled "Outlook Electricity: A Matter of Urgency," demands Gov. George Pataki and Mayor Rudolph W. Guiliani grease the government wheels to get 12 new and more efficient power plants built in the region; presses for increased energy conservation in manufacturing and business; allows small businesses and apartment buildings to invest in new distributed generation-units, or use existing standby generation, to provide additional power supplies during similar periods.

"It seems whenever we do this, our proposals fall on deaf ears," said Lewis Rudin, chairman of the Association-for a Better New York, another of the five organizations.

"We have to build new plants... I remember making these pleas right before the blackout of 1977. I've seen this movie before. How many more times do I have to see it?"

The goal of the report, according to just about everyone involved, is to avoid "Another California." The nation's most populous state has been plagued with electricity shortages and collapsing utilities partly because the state deregulated local energy wholesalers but not the retailers. The result has been brownouts, blackouts and calls for a full federal bailout, which President George W. Bush has so far refused.

According to the report, "California's insufficient capacity was compounded by hot weather, aging power plant and transmission infrastructure, and dysfunctional bidding behavior in the wholesale power markets, all of which combined to drive up prices and to create inadequate electricity supplies in the Bay Area. During a heat wave in June, Pacific Gas & Electric was forced to cut power to more than 100,000 of its customers in the Bay area to prevent more widespread problems over a larger region."

Lending his support to the proposals was Ken Miller, vice-chairman of Credit Suisse First Boston. He explained that his "Blackberry" e-mail and paging device, which fits neatly on his belt, uses as much energy as a refrigerator, and that the increased prosperity of New York has pushed energy demand to its current levels. "Energy is highly concentrated in its demand... And New York City is always on."

An innocent faux pas helped REBNY president Steven Spinola make his point. When John Gilbert of the Building Congress's Energy Committee introduced him at Thursday's press conference, he was described as representing commercial building owners.

"Actually, I represent the brokers, developers, lenders and property managers as well as the owners of 400 million square feet of commercial space. But if we can't turn the lights on, that space has no value.

"Unless we decide to build new plants today, we won't have the energy to build for tomorrow."

Standing in the way of those 12 new plants -- which combined would provide 5,500 megawatts to New York -- is red tape and NIMBY-minded politicians. Only one of the proposed plants -- which is really just a plant upgrade on Manhattan's Lower East Side -- has had its local application approved.

This is an issue that all facets of the real estate industry agree on. Paul Fernandez, chief of staff to Building and Construction Trades Council president Edward J. Molloy, agreed "This is not a peripheral issue; it's front and center. We know what needs to be done, so lets get these plants built. Not in a year. Not in six months. We need them built tomorrow. And today."

New York City Partnership and Chamber of Commerce president Kathryn S. Wylde was not able to attend the press conference, but she released a statement that read, "The momentum that our economy has built over the past five years is seriously threatened by the possibility of an inadequate supply of power. The energy crisis in California has forced investors and entrepreneurs to consider energy capacity as an important criterion in location and expansion decisions, especially for technology companies. New York needs to send the clear message to the investment and business community that we are prepared to meet the power needs of a growing economy, now and for the future."