Report: Virtual K-12 enrollment to grow five-fold during the next three years. (Notebook).

The increased emphasis on individual student achievement and the emergence of Web-based instruction tools will boost virtual school enrollment, according to the authors of Virtual/Schools Across America: Trends in K-12 Online Education 2002, published by The Peak Group.

The virtual school market is far from static: the 40 accredited virtual schools profiled in the report that serve the K-12 audience serve 85,500 students. That number will be five times as large in the 2004-05 school year as enrollment swells to 520,000, the report says.

Once the digital domain for advanced placement classes and remedial courses, virtual schools are now providing not only supplement coursework, but, in a small number of cases, core curriculum.

TWO BASIC MODELS: SUPPLEMENTAL AND FULL SERVICE Close to 63 percent of the 40 leading virtual K-12 schools profiled provide supplement studies; 37 percent provide the curricula to allow a student to earn a high school diploma entirely online. "We expected to see more full curricula than we did," says Lillian Kellogg, managing partner with Peak Group and co-author.

Funding problems are the major growth impediment. Most money issues center around operating, administrative and marketing expenses, course development, acquisition and hardware and software upgrades. Only a minority of states are labeled "virtual school friendly;" Florida and Illinois, for example, have flexible legislation that allow for virtual school growth. Other states, including Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, have legislation that allows for the creation of "virtual charter schools."

Still, some states have pending legislation that put the future of charter schools in question. States are still sorting out the basis of how school districts will reimburse virtual and charter schools for educating their students.

Many virtual schools are for students at risk, or those who need more flexibility in their educational choices, adds Kellogg. "There is much more acceptance at the high school level," says Politoski, Peak Group co-manager. "These students have the maturity and motivation to complete studies online."

Only a small percentage of virtual schools enroll out-of-state students, with Florida Virtual Schools (formerly known as Florida Online High School) leading the way. Kellogg labels this as the "most progressive program" and the one with the most recognition outside its home state. The program has been aggressive in offering broadbased curricula that meets state standards and in licensing its courses to other state education systems. Other facts worth noting

* Virtual schools based in the five largest states: California, Florida, Illinois, New York and Texas--enroll 40 percent of the online students.

* The average enrollment fee is $134 and the average course fee for a one-unit semester course is $176. On average, programs are not charging more to out-of-state students.

* While online coursework is becoming more popular, education officials remain skeptical about online testing, especially given that the majority of courses are geared to high school students. Nearly all virtual school programs require that final exams and standardized testing be provided "live" at the students' local school of enrollment, notes the report.

* 75 percent of virtual school programs are delivered through purchased or licensed outside providers, according to the report About one-third of the platforms were developed by the school system.

* More than 80 percent of students use their own home computers to study online; some of the virtual schools provided did provide computers to students, but only on a temporary basis.

* While the enrollment statistics are undisputed, the effectiveness of virtual education is open for study. "The concept of virtual schooling is still very new and relatively untested," say the report's authors, who add that officials can only offer initial perspective on student retention and test scores.

www.peakgroup.net

VIRTUAL SCHOOLS TARGET AUDIENCE

                             PERCENTAGES

                    Current Courses   2-3 Years Projected
Home School               75                  85
Students

Pre-School                 0                  22.5
Students

Elementary                30                  52.5
School Students

Middle School             67.5                87.5
Students

High School               100                 100
Students