Rental housing market and economic update--January. (Industry Forecast & Update).A U.S. Economic recession that started in April has now been officially declared de·clare v. de·clared, de·clar·ing, de·clares v.tr. 1. To make known formally or officially. See Synonyms at announce. 2. To state emphatically or authoritatively; affirm. 3. . This was long before the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. We continue to believe that the recession will end in the early spring as a result of expansive monetary and federal government fiscal policies. Some data, such as the Consumer Confidence and the Leading Economic Indicators Leading economic indicators Economic series that tend to rise or fall in advance of the rest of the economy. Indexes, is turning positive and foreshadow fore·shad·ow tr.v. fore·shad·owed, fore·shad·ow·ing, fore·shad·ows To present an indication or a suggestion of beforehand; presage. fore·shad a spring or summer start of an economic recovery. Recently published data for the rental RENTAL. A roll or list of the rents of an estate containing the description of the lands let, the names of the tenants, and other particulars connected with such estate. This is the same as rent roll, from which it is said to be corrupted. homing market is positive with rent increases and new apartment construction at relatively high levels. Rental Housing Market * Net effective rents rose at a very high 5.7 percent annual rate during December December: see month. in the Consumer Price Index (CPI (1) (Characters Per Inch) The measurement of the density of characters per inch on tape or paper. A printer's CPI button switches character pitch. (2) (Counts Per I ) data series. The December index level was up 4.7 percent from a year ago. Rent increases exceeded inflation by 3.1 percentage points over the year period ending in December. This was the largest spread since 1986. * New apartment starts in 2001 totaled 292,300 units, down 2.3 percent from the 299,100 units for 2000. Apartment starts did fall sharply in December, to a 263,000-unit annual rate from November's 340,000-unit rate. This probably is just another example of the volatility Volatility 1. A statistical measure of the tendency of a market or security to rise or fall sharply within a period of time. 2. A variable in option pricing formulas that denotes the extent to which the return of the underlying asset will fluctuate between now and the from month to month in this data series. * Absorption absorption [Lat.,=sucking from], taking of molecules of one substance directly into another substance. It is contrasted with adsorption, in which the molecules adhere only to the surface of the second substance. rates of new rental apartment units rose in the third quarter of last year. The actual numbers of units absorbed Absorbed 1. In a general business sense, when a cost is treated as an expense instead of being passed on to the customer in the form of higher prices. 2. In underwriting, when an issue has been completely sold to the public. 3. fell from the same period a year earlier as a result of a decline in completions. Condominium/ Cooperative cooperative Organization owned by and operated for the benefit of those using its services. Cooperatives have been successful in such fields as the processing and marketing of farm products and the purchasing of other kinds of equipment and raw materials, and in the Market * Absorptions on new condominium condominium In modern property law, individual ownership of one dwelling unit within a multidwelling building. Unit owners have undivided ownership interest in the land and those portions of the building shared in common. (condo)/cooperative (coop COOP See Banks for Cooperatives (COOP). ) apartments increased in the third quarter of last year. However, the rate of absorptions for units completed in the second quarter fell sharply. Adjustment in the condo/coop market in general may be underway after two good years. Sales of existing condo/coops probably set a record last year according to according to prep. 1. As stated or indicated by; on the authority of: according to historians. 2. In keeping with: according to instructions. 3. the National Association of Realtors The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is made up of residential and commercial realtors who are brokers, salespeople, property managers, appraisers, and counselors, and others working in the real estate industry. . And the median sales price of new condos and coops jumped last year. The Economy * The National Bureau of Economic Research The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is a "private, nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization" dedicated to studying the science and empirics of economics, especially the American economy. officially declared that a recession began after March of last year. Real GDP Real GDP This inflation-adjusted measure that reflects the value of all goods and services produced in a given year, expressed in base-year prices. Often referred to as "constant-price", "inflation-corrected" GDP or "constant dollar GDP". , however, did not decline until the third quarter. Softness in the economy was reaffirmed with the release of the final revision (programming) revision - A release of a piece of software which is not a major release or a bugfix, but only introduces small changes or new features. for the third quarter GDP GDP (guanosine diphosphate): see guanine. that showed a 1.3 percent annual rate of decline, versus a 0.4 percent drop in the initial estimate. * Personal incomes declined in November November: see month. for the second straight month. Slowing in the economy is offsetting the lower taxes. * Consumer Confidence jumped more than eight points in December after five months of declines. * U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators index of leading economic indicators An index that is compiled by the Conference Board, a private-sector consulting firm. The index is designed to indicate the future direction of economic activity. rose in November for the second month in a row. Labor Markets labor market A place where labor is exchanged for wages; an LM is defined by geography, education and technical expertise, occupation, licensure or certification requirements, and job experience * The U.S. jobless job·less adj. 1. Having no job. 2. Of or relating to those who have no jobs. n. (used with a pl. verb) Unemployed people considered as a group. Used with the. rate rose to 5.8 percent in December, the highest rate in five years. Employers have cut a net of 1.4 million jobs since the cyclical cyclical Of or relating to a variable, such as housing starts, car sales, or the price of a certain stock, that is subject to regular or irregular up-and-down movements. employment peak was reached in March of last year. Inflation and Interest Rates * Inflation remains under control. Consumer prices fell in December in the overall index, and were up only 1.6 percent from a year ago. Contraction contraction, in physics contraction, in physics: see expansion. contraction, in grammar contraction, in writing: see abbreviation. contraction - reduction in energy prices accounted for the drop. The core rate of inflation (excludes energy and food prices) is widely watched and it rose 2.4 percent last year. * Short terms rates fell further in December as the Federal Reserve Board Open Market Committee (FOMC See Federal Open Market Committee. FOMC See Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). ) cut short-term interest rates Short-term interest rates Interest rates on loan contracts-or debt instruments such as Treasury bills, bank certificates of deposit or commerical paper-having maturities of less than one year. Often called money market rates. by another 25 basis points (100 basis points equal 1 percentage point). This was the eleventh In music or music theory an eleventh is the note eleven scale degrees from the root of a chord and also the interval between the root and the eleventh. Since there are only seven degrees in a diatonic scale the eleventh degree is the same as the subdominant and the interval time that interest rates were cut in 2000. Multifamily Sector Produces a Decline in Housing Starts in December Housing starts declined 3.4 percent in December as a result of a 26.5 percent sharp drop in multifamily activity. Single-family sin·gle-fam·i·ly adj. Relating to or being a dwelling designed for one family only: a single-family home; single-family occupancy. starts rose 3.6 percent to their highest level since April of last year. Multifamily starts can be volatile With regard to computer memory, it means "temporary" and not "highly changeable," which is the usual meaning of the word. See volatile memory. 1. (programming) volatile - volatile variable. 2. (storage) volatile - See non-volatile storage. from month to month, and building permit activity rose 3.6 percent last month, suggesting that housing starts are increasing in January January: see month. . Housing starts in 2001 totaled 1.603 million units, a 2.2 percent increase over the 1.569 million units for 2000. A start of economic recovery in the economy by spring combined with relatively low mortgage interest rates should produce another increase in housing starts this year. Housing starts in December fell to a 1.570 million unit seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted Mathematically adjusted by moderating a macroeconomic indicator (e.g., oil prices/imports) so that relative comparisons can be drawn from month to month all year. annual rate from a revised 1.625 million unit rate for November, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. Multifamily starts dropped to a 277,000-unit annual rate last month from the 377,000-unit rate for November. Starts of apartment units (in structures with five or more units) plunged 22.6 percent to a 263,000-unit rate in December from a 340,000-unit rate a month earlier. A 1.293 million unit single-family starts rate occurred in December up from the 1.248 million unit rate for November. Building permit activity occurred at a 1.653 million unit rate in December, up from the 1.595 million unit rate for November. Single-family permits increased 3.1 percent. Total multifamily permits rose 5.2 percent, with the apartment component up 2.2 percent. Housing starts last month fell in all regions of the country with the exception of the West. They increased 8.3 percent in the West. Declines of 15.8 percent in the Northeast “Northeastern” redirects here. For the Boston college, see Northeastern University, Boston. Northeast or north east is the ordinal direction halfway between north and east. It is the opposite of southwest. See boxing the compass. , 10.9 percent in the Midwest Midwest or Middle West, region of the United States centered on the western Great Lakes and the upper-middle Mississippi valley. It is a somewhat imprecise term that has been applied to the northern section of the land between the Appalachians , and 2.6 percent in the South were recorded. Single-family construction accounted for the rise in total housing starts last year with a 3.6 percent rise to 1.275 million units from 1.231 million units in 2000. Total multifamily starts declined 2.8 percent to 328,400 units last year, from 337,800 units a year earlier. Apartment starts were down 2.3 percent to 292,300 units in 2001 from, 299,100 units in 2000. Rental Apartment Vacancy VACANCY. A place which is empty. The term is principally applied to cases where an office is not filled. 2. By the constitution of the United States, the president has the power to fill up vacancies that may happen during the recess of the senate. Rate Rose in Fourth Quarter The rental apartment (structures with five or more units) vacancy rate rose in the fourth quarter, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. A 10 percent rate was recorded for the fourth quarter, versus a 9.6 percent rate in the third quarter. An 8.8 percent vacancy rate for all rental units was recorded in the fourth quarter, versus 8.4 percent for the third quarter. The economic recession helped push the rental apartment vacancy rate back to double digits Double Digits was a pricing game on the American television game show, The Price Is Right. Played from April 20, 1973 through May 18, 1973's show, it was played for a car and used small prizes. for the first time sine the second quarter of 1994. And the fourth quarter rate was more than one percentage point higher than that recorded in the fourth quarter of 2000. The aftermath AFTERMATH. A right to have the last crop of grass or pasturage. 1 Chit. Pr. 181. of the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, and the national economic recession caught up with the rental apartment market in the fourth quarter, but their impacts are relatively modest. The apartment market should stabilize stabilize See peg. in the spring with the expected end of the recession. Changes in vacancy rates for all rental units were mixed regionally. Increases occurred from the third quarter in the Midwest (10.3 percent versus 9.3 percent) and in the South (11.5 percent versus 10.8 percent) The rental vacancy was unchanged in the West (6 percent). It declined in the Northeast (5.4 percent versus 5.5 percent). The homeownership rate, at 68 percent in the fourth quarter, was unchanged from the third quarter, but was up from the 67.5 percent recorded a year earlier. It should be noted that the estimation estimation In mathematics, use of a function or formula to derive a solution or make a prediction. Unlike approximation, it has precise connotations. In statistics, for example, it connotes the careful selection and testing of a function called an estimator. of the homeownership rates on a quarterly basis are not using the 2000 Census census, periodic official count of the number of persons and their condition and of the resources of a country. In ancient times, among the Jews and Romans, such enumeration was mainly for taxation and conscription purposes. as a base. The 2000 Census showed a lower homeownership rate than was estimated in the quarterly data series.
Estimates of Total Housing Inventory
Units in Thousands
Fourth Quarter
2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996
All Housing Units 121963 120144 118827 117589 115892 114555
Occupied 107633 106493 105286 104035 102624 101264
Owner 73215 71906 70455 69097 67424 66277
Renter 34418 34587 34831 34938 35200 34987
Vacant 14330 13651 13541 13554 13268 13291
Year-round 10912 10201 10428 10514 10078 9979
For Rent 3336 2970 3046 2978 2966 2950
For Sale only 1353 1188 1181 1242 1187 1146
Rented or Sold 743 751 856 909 813 763
Held of Market 5480 5292 5345 5385 5112 5120
Occasional Use 1898 1784 1929 1868 1805 1742
URE (1) 1058 1005 908 920 793 877
Other 2524 2503 2508 2597 2514 2501
Seasonal 3418 3450 3113 3040 3190 3312
Change
2000-2001 1999-2000 1998-1999
No. % No. % No. %
All Housing Units 1819 1.5% 1317 1.1% 1697 1.4%
Occupied 1140 1.1% 1207 1.1% 1411 1.4%
Owner 1309 1.8% 1451 2.1% 1673 2.4%
Renter -169 -0.5% -244 -0.7% -262 -0.7%
Vacant 679 4.7% 110 0.8% 286 2.1%
Year-round 711 6.5% -227 -2.2% 436 4.1%
For Rent 366 11.0% -76 -2.5% 12 0.4%
For Sale only 165 12.2% 7 0.6% 55 4.4%
Rented or Sold -8 -1.1% -105 -12.3% 96 10.6%
Held of Market 188 3.4% -53 -1.0% 273 5.1%
Occasional Use 114 6.0% -145 -7.5% 63 3.4%
URE (1) 53 5.0% 97 10.7% 127 13.8%
Other 21 0.8% -5 -0.2% 83 3.2%
Seasonal -32 -0.9% 337 10.8% -150 -4.9%
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
Housing Tenure Rates Fourth Quarter Each Year
Not Seasonally Seasonally
Adjusted Adjusted
Home- Home-
Year owners Renters owners Renters
1980 65.5% 34.5% 65.6% 34.4%
1981 65.2% 34.8% 65.3% 34.7%
1982 64.5% 35.5% 64.6% 35.4%
1983 64.4% 35.6% 64.5% 35.5%
1984 64.1% 35.9% 64.2% 35.8%
1985 63.5% 36.5% 63.6% 36.4%
1986 63.9% 36.1% 63.9% 36.1%
1987 64.1% 35.9% 64.1% 35.9%
1988 63.8% 36.2% 63.8% 36.2%
1989 63.8% 36.2% 63.7% 36.3%
1990 64.1% 35.9% 64.0% 36.0%
1991 64.2% 35.8% 64.1% 35.9%
1992 64.4% 35.6% 64.3% 35.7%
1993 64.2% 35.8% 64.1% 35.9%
1994 64.2% 35.8% 64.1% 35.9%
1995 65.1% 34.9% 65.1% 34.9%
1996 65.4% 34.6% 65.4% 34.6%
1997 65.7% 34.3% 65.7% 34.3%
1998 66.4% 33.6% 66.5% 33.5%
1999 66.9% 33.1% 67.0% 33.0%
2000 67.5% 32.5% 67.5% 32.5%
2001 68.0% 32.0% 68.0% 32.0%
CURRENT RENTAL HOUSING MARKET
Economic & Demographic Indicator
Year
Unit of Measure Ago
Rental Vacancy Rates
Apartments percent 9.4
All Rental Units percent 8.2
New Unfurnished Rental
Apartments
Units Completed thousands 56.7
Absorption Rates
3 months percent 75
6 months percent 89
9 months percent 96
12 months percent 99
Median Rents--New Units $'s $876
Median Asking Rent--All
For Rent Units $'s $492
New Condominium/
Cooperative Apartments
Units Completed thousands 8.4
Absorption Rates
3 months percent 83
6 months percent 87
9 months percent 83
12 months percent 84
Median Asking Price $'s $140,100
Total Households thousands 106061
Rental Households thousands 34163
% Total Households percent 32.3
Multifamily New Construction
Number of Units Started thousands 1 299
Apartment Units Started thousands 1 281
Value of Work Put-in-Place billions of $'s 1 26.7
Rental Property Maintenance
Repairs, & Improvements (2) millions of $'s 12477
Price Indexes (3)
Consumer Prices 1982-84=100 174.0
Rents 1982-84=100 187.6
Producer Prices
Finished Goods 1982=100 140.0
Materials & Components
for Construction 1982=100 150.2
Gypsum Building Materials 1982=100 136.6
Cement 1982=100 150.1
Softwood Lumber 1982=100 165.9
Softwood Plywood 1982=100 132.1
Economic Activity
GDP billions of 1996 $'s 9260.1
billions of current $'s 9937.5
Per Capita Disposable Income current $'s 25306
1996 Dollars 28354
Index of Leading Economic
Indicators 1992=100 109.2
Consumer Confidence Index 1985=100 132.6
Non-Farm Business
Productivity (5) Annualized % growth 1.6
Manufacturing
Productivity (5) Annualized % growth 3.3
Employment
Household Basis (1) thousands 135888
Establishment Basis (1) thousands 132367
Unemployment Rate (1) percent 4.0
Construction Workers (1) percent 6.4
Employment Cost Index Annualized % change 4.3
Compensation Cost Index
Construction Annualized % change 5.2
Interest Rates
Moody's Aaa Corporate Bonds percent 7.21
3 Month T Bills percent 5.77
1 Year Treasuries percent 5.31
10 Year Treasuries percent 5.04
30 Year Treasuries percent 5.41
Yield Curve (6) percent -27
Previous
Unit of Measure Period
Rental Vacancy Rates
Apartments percent 9.7
All Rental Units percent 8.3
New Unfurnished Rental
Apartments
Units Completed thousands 42.9
Absorption Rates
3 months percent 64
6 months percent 81
9 months percent 93
12 months percent 97
Median Rents--New Units $'s $889
Median Asking Rent--All
For Rent Units $'s $502
New Condominium/
Cooperative Apartments
Units Completed thousands 11.1
Absorption Rates
3 months percent 74
6 months percent 88
9 months percent 87
12 months percent 84
Median Asking Price $'s $157,300
Total Households thousands 106766
Rental Households thousands 34513
% Total Households percent 32.3
Multifamily New Construction
Number of Units Started thousands 1 377
Apartment Units Started thousands 1 340
Value of Work Put-in-Place billions of $'s 1 31.6
Rental Property Maintenance
Repairs, & Improvements (2) millions of $'s 9817
Price Indexes (3)
Consumer Prices 1982-84=100 177.4
Rents 1982-84=100 195.5
Producer Prices
Finished Goods 1982=100 139.6
Materials & Components
for Construction 1982=100 150.4
Gypsum Building Materials 1982=100 124.0
Cement 1982=100 150.9
Softwood Lumber 1982=100 164.6
Softwood Plywood 1982=100 128.4
Economic Activity
GDP billions of 1996 $'s 9341.7
billions of current $'s 10202.6
Per Capita Disposable Income current $'s 25886
1996 Dollars 23561
Index of Leading Economic
Indicators 1992=100 109.2
Consumer Confidence Index 1985=100 84.9
Non-Farm Business
Productivity (5) Annualized % growth 2.1
Manufacturing
Productivity (5) Annualized % growth -0.5
Employment
Household Basis (1) thousands 134253
Establishment Basis (1) thousands 131411
Unemployment Rate (1) percent 5.7
Construction Workers (1) percent 8.9
Employment Cost Index Annualized % change 3.9
Compensation Cost Index
Construction Annualized % change 5.0
Interest Rates
Moody's Aaa Corporate Bonds percent 6.97
3 Month T Bills percent 1.87
1 Year Treasuries percent 2.18
10 Year Treasuries percent 4.65
30 Year Treasuries percent 5.12
Yield Curve (6) percent 247
Unit of Measure No.
Rental Vacancy Rates
Apartments percent 9.6
All Rental Units percent 8.4
New Unfurnished Rental
Apartments
Units Completed thousands 46.3
Absorption Rates
3 months percent 67
6 months percent 86
9 months percent 93
12 months percent 97
Median Rents--New Units $'s $874
Median Asking Rent--All
For Rent Units $'s $505
New Condominium/
Cooperative Apartments
Units Completed thousands 10.6
Absorption Rates
3 months percent 71
6 months percent 90
9 months percent 92
12 months percent 91
Median Asking Price $'s $190,700
Total Households thousands 107089
Rental Households thousands 34073
% Total Households percent 31.9
Multifamily New Construction
Number of Units Started thousands 1 277
Apartment Units Started thousands 1 263
Value of Work Put-in-Place billions of $'s 1 30.8
Rental Property Maintenance
Repairs, & Improvements (2) millions of $'s 12818
Price Indexes (3)
Consumer Prices 1982-84=100 176.7
Rents 1982-84=100 196.4
Producer Prices
Finished Goods 1982=100 138.4
Materials & Components
for Construction 1982=100 150.4
Gypsum Building Materials 1982=100 135.5
Cement 1982=100 150.8
Softwood Lumber 1982=100 163.9
Softwood Plywood 1982=100 128.9
Economic Activity
GDP billions of 1996 $'s 9310.4
billions of current $'s 10224.9
Per Capita Disposable Income current $'s 25860
1996 Dollars 23561
Index of Leading Economic
Indicators 1992=100 109.7
Consumer Confidence Index 1985=100 93.3
Non-Farm Business
Productivity (5) Annualized % growth 1.5
Manufacturing
Productivity (5) Annualized % growth 2.5
Employment
Household Basis (1) thousands 134055
Establishment Basis (1) thousands 131287
Unemployment Rate (1) percent 5.8
Construction Workers (1) percent 8.9
Employment Cost Index Annualized % change 4.1
Compensation Cost Index
Construction Annualized % change 4.5
Interest Rates
Moody's Aaa Corporate Bonds percent 6.77
3 Month T Bills percent 1.69
1 Year Treasuries percent 2.22
10 Year Treasuries percent 5.09
30 Year Treasuries percent 5.48
Yield Curve (6) percent 287
Reporting
Unit of Measure Period
Rental Vacancy Rates
Apartments percent Q3 01
All Rental Units percent Q3 01
New Unfurnished Rental
Apartments
Units Completed thousands Q2 01
Absorption Rates
3 months percent Q3 01
6 months percent Q3 01
9 months percent Q3 01
12 months percent Q3 01
Median Rents--New Units $'s Q3 01
Median Asking Rent--All
For Rent Units $'s Q3 01
New Condominium/
Cooperative Apartments
Units Completed thousands Q2 01
Absorption Rates
3 months percent Q3 01
6 months percent Q3 01
9 months percent Q3 01
12 months percent Q3 01
Median Asking Price $'s Q3 01
Total Households thousands Sept.
Rental Households thousands Q3 01
% Total Households percent Q3 01
Multifamily New Construction
Number of Units Started thousands 1 Dec.
Apartment Units Started thousands 1 Dec.
Value of Work Put-in-Place billions of $'s 1 Nov.
Rental Property Maintenance
Repairs, & Improvements (2) millions of $'s Q2 01
Price Indexes (3)
Consumer Prices 1982-84=100 Dec.
Rents 1982-84=100 Dec.
Producer Prices
Finished Goods 1982=100 Dec.
Materials & Components
for Construction 1982=100 Dec.
Gypsum Building Materials 1982=100 Dec.
Cement 1982=100 Dec.
Softwood Lumber 1982=100 Dec.
Softwood Plywood 1982=100 Dec.
Economic Activity
GDP billions of 1996 $'s Q3 01
billions of current $'s Q3 01
Per Capita Disposable Income current $'s Nov.
1996 Dollars Nov.
Index of Leading Economic
Indicators 1992=100 Nov.
Consumer Confidence Index 1985=100 Nov.
Non-Farm Business
Productivity (5) Annualized % growth Q3 01
Manufacturing
Productivity (5) Annualized % growth Q3 01
Employment
Household Basis (1) thousands Dec.
Establishment Basis (1) thousands Dec.
Unemployment Rate (1) percent Dec.
Construction Workers (1) percent Dec.
Employment Cost Index Annualized % change Q3 01
Compensation Cost Index
Construction Annualized % change Q3 01
Interest Rates
Moody's Aaa Corporate Bonds percent Dec.
3 Month T Bills percent Dec.
1 Year Treasuries percent Dec.
10 Year Treasuries percent Dec.
30 Year Treasuries percent Dec.
Yield Curve (6) percent Dec.
Year
Unit of Measure Ago
Rental Vacancy Rates
Apartments percent 0.2
All Rental Units percent 0.2
New Unfurnished Rental
Apartments
Units Completed thousands -10.4
Absorption Rates
3 months percent -8
6 months percent -3
9 months percent -3
12 months percent -2
Median Rents--New Units $'s -0.2%
Median Asking Rent--All
For Rent Units $'s 2.6%
New Condominium/
Cooperative Apartments
Units Completed thousands 2.2
Absorption Rates
3 months percent -12
6 months percent 3
9 months percent 9
12 months percent 7
Median Asking Price $'s 36.1%
Total Households thousands 1028
Rental Households thousands -90
% Total Households percent -0.4
Multifamily New Construction
Number of Units Started thousands 1 -22
Apartment Units Started thousands 1 -18
Value of Work Put-in-Place billions of $'s 1 15.4%
Rental Property Maintenance
Repairs, & Improvements (2) millions of $'s 2.7
Price Indexes (3)
Consumer Prices 1982-84=100 1.6%
Rents 1982-84=100 4.7%
Producer Prices
Finished Goods 1982=100 -1.1%
Materials & Components
for Construction 1982=100 0.1%
Gypsum Building Materials 1982=100 -0.8%
Cement 1982=100 0.5%
Softwood Lumber 1982=100 -1.2%
Softwood Plywood 1982=100 -2.4%
Economic Activity
GDP billions of 1996 $'s 0.5%
billions of current $'s 2.9%
Per Capita Disposable Income current $'s 2.2%
1996 Dollars -16.9%
Index of Leading Economic
Indicators 1992=100 0.5
Consumer Confidence Index 1985=100 -39.3
Non-Farm Business
Productivity (5) Annualized % growth -0.1
Manufacturing
Productivity (5) Annualized % growth -0.8
Employment
Household Basis (1) thousands -1833
Establishment Basis (1) thousands -1080
Unemployment Rate (1) percent 1.8
Construction Workers (1) percent 2.5
Employment Cost Index Annualized % change -0.2
Compensation Cost Index
Construction Annualized % change -0.7
Interest Rates
Moody's Aaa Corporate Bonds percent -44 bp
3 Month T Bills percent -408 bp
1 Year Treasuries percent -309 bp
10 Year Treasuries percent 5 bp
30 Year Treasuries percent 7 bp
Yield Curve (6) percent
Current
Previous
Unit of Measure Period
Rental Vacancy Rates
Apartments percent -0.1
All Rental Units percent 0.1
New Unfurnished Rental
Apartments
Units Completed thousands 3.4
Absorption Rates
3 months percent 3
6 months percent 5
9 months percent 0
12 months percent 0
Median Rents--New Units $'s -1.7%
Median Asking Rent--All
For Rent Units $'s 0.6%
New Condominium/
Cooperative Apartments
Units Completed thousands -0.5
Absorption Rates
3 months percent -3
6 months percent 2
9 months percent 5
12 months percent 7
Median Asking Price $'s 21.2%
Total Households thousands 323
Rental Households thousands -440
% Total Households percent -0.4
Multifamily New Construction
Number of Units Started thousands 1 -100
Apartment Units Started thousands 1 -77
Value of Work Put-in-Place billions of $'s 1 -2.5%
Rental Property Maintenance
Repairs, & Improvements (2) millions of $'s 30.6%
Price Indexes (3)
Consumer Prices 1982-84=100 -4.6% (4)
Rents 1982-84=100 5.7% (4)
Producer Prices
Finished Goods 1982=100 -9.8% (4)
Materials & Components
for Construction 1982=100 0.0% (4)
Gypsum Building Materials 1982=100 189.9% (4)
Cement 1982=100 -0.8% (4)
Softwood Lumber 1982=100 -5.0% (4)
Softwood Plywood 1982=100 4.8% (4)
Economic Activity
GDP billions of 1996 $'s -1.3% (4)
billions of current $'s 0.9% (4)
Per Capita Disposable Income current $'s -1.2% (4)
1996 Dollars 0.0% (4)
Index of Leading Economic
Indicators 1992=100 0.5
Consumer Confidence Index 1985=100 8.4
Non-Farm Business
Productivity (5) Annualized % growth -0.6
Manufacturing
Productivity (5) Annualized % growth 3.0
Employment
Household Basis (1) thousands -198
Establishment Basis (1) thousands -124
Unemployment Rate (1) percent 0.1
Construction Workers (1) percent 0.0
Employment Cost Index Annualized % change 0.2
Compensation Cost Index
Construction Annualized % change -0.5
Interest Rates
Moody's Aaa Corporate Bonds percent -20 bp
3 Month T Bills percent -18 bp
1 Year Treasuries percent -4 bp
10 Year Treasuries percent 44 bp
30 Year Treasuries percent 36 bp
Yield Curve (6) percent
HOUSING CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY
(units in thousands)
Housing Starts
(Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates)
Change
Aug. to Sept.
Aug. Sept.
Month 2001 2001 No. %
Total 1,625 1,570 -55 -3.4%
Single Family 1,248 1,293 45 3.6%
Multifamily 377 277 -100 -26.5%
2 to 4 units 37 14 -23 -62.2%
5 or more units 340 263 -77 -22.6%
Northeast 171 144 -27 -15.8%
Midwest 376 335 -41 -10.9%
South 705 687 -18 -2.6%
West373 404 31 8.3% 430
Change
2000-2001
Aug. Sept.
Month 2001 2001 No. %
Total 1,568.7 1,603.1 34.4 2.2%
Single Family 1,230.9 1,274.7 43.8 3.6%
Multifamily 337.8 328.4 -9.4 -2.8%
2 to 4 units 38.7 36.1 -2.6 -6.7%
5 or more units 299.1 292.3 -6.8 -2.3%
Northeast 154.5 149.5 -5.0 -3.2%
Midwest 317.5 330.3 12.8 4.0%
South 713.6 731.5 17.9 2.5%
West 391.8 8.7 2.3% 363.9
Building Permits
(Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates)
Change
Aug. to Sept.
Aug. Sept.
Month 2001 2001 No. %
Total 1,595 1,653 58 3.6%
Single Family 1,211 1,249 38 3.1%
Multifamily 384 404 20 5.2%
2 to 4 units 66 79 13 19.7%
5 or more units 318 325 7 2.2%
Northeast 154 167 13 8.4%
Midwest 329 365 36 10.9%
South 740 752 12 1.6%
West 372 369 -3 -0.8%
Total 1,592.3 1,612.1 19.8 1.2%
Single Family 1,198.1 1,222.2 24.1 2.0%
Multifamily 394.2 389.9 -4.3 -1.1%
2 to 4 units 64.9 68.8 3.9 6.0%
5 or more units 329.3 321.1 -8.2 -2.5%
Northeast 165.1 157.7 -7.4 -4.5%
Midwest 323.8 323.3 -0.5 -0.2%
South 701.9 725.6 23.7 3.4%
West401.5 405.6 4.1 1.0%
Units Completed
(Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates)
Change
Aug. to Sept.
Aug. Sept.
Month 2001 2001 No. %
Total 1,576 1,654 78 4.9%
Single Family 1,265 1,318 53 4.2%
Multifamily 311 336 25 8.0%
2 to 4 units 33 40 7 21.2%
5 or more units 278 296 18 6.5%
Northeast 142 175 33 23.2%
Midwest 335 270 -65 -19.4%
South 669 783 114 17.0%
West373 426 -4 -0.9%
Change
2000-2001
Aug. Sept.
Month 2001 2001 No. %
Total 1,573.7 1,566.7 -7.0 -0.4%
Single Family 1,241.8 1,252.6 10.8 0.9%
Multifamily 332.0 314.1 -17.9 -5.4%
2 to 4 units 27.3 33.7 6.4 23.4%
5 or more units 304.7 280.4 -24.3 -8.0%
Northeast 146.1 144.7 -1.4 -1.0%
Midwest 334.4 312.0 -22.4 -6.7%
South 729.3 724.8 -4.5 -0.6%
West 385.3 21.4 5.9%
Units Under Construction
at End of Period
(Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates)
Change
Aug. to Sept.
Aug. Sept.
Month 2001 2001 No. %
Total 1,009 1,006 -3 -0.3%
Single Family 679 679 0 0.0%
Multifamily 330 327 -3 -0.9%
2 to 4 units 34 32 -2 -5.9%
5 or more units 296 295 -1 -0.3%
Northeast 118 117 -1 -0.8%
Midwest 201 206 5 2.5%
South 428 422 -6 -1.4%
West 262 261 -1 -0.4%
QUARTERLY RENTAL VACANCY RATES *
All Units
Rental in Structure Region
North- Mid-
Units 1 2+ 5+ east west South West
1989
1st 7.5 4.2 9.4 10.4 4.5 7.2 9.8 7.2
2nd 7.4 4.2 9.4 10.6 4.6 7.1 9.9 7.0
3rd 7.6 4.2 9.3 10.3 4.9 6.9 9.9 7.4
4th 7.1 4.2 8.8 9.4 5.2 6.1 9.2 6.7
1990
1st 7.5 4.0 9.4 10.2 5.9 6.6 9.3 7.1
2nd 7.0 4.2 9.4 8.5 6.4 6.0 8.4 6.4
3rd 7.2 3.9 9.6 9.5 6.1 6.5 8.7 6.6
4th 7.2 4.0 9.2 9.5 6.2 6.6 8.9 6.4
1991
1st 7.5 3.8 9.4 9.9 7.0 6.9 8.8 6.6
2nd 7.3 4.3 9.4 10.7 6.8 6.4 9.2 6.1
3rd 7.6 3.7 9.6 10.7 7.3 6.8 8.8 7.0
4th 7.3 3.7 9.2 10.2 6.3 6.8 8.9 8.5
1992
1st 7.4 4.1 9.5 10.2 6.5 6.7 8.8 8.4
2nd 7.7 3.6 9.6 10.3 7.1 6.9 8.8 7.2
3rd 7.3 3.7 9.3 10.1 6.7 6.8 7.9 7.4
4th 7.1 3.8 8.9 9.7 7.4 6.1 8.0 6.4
1993 **
1st 7.8 4.1 10.0 10.7 8.3 6.7 8.3 7.9
2nd 7.6 3.6 9.8 10.9 6.9 6.5 8.4 7.8
3rd 7.0 3.7 9.0 9.8 6.5 6.8 7.6 6.9
4th 6.9 3.5 8.8 9.4 6.4 6.2 7.4 7.1
1994
1st 7.5 4.7 9.2 9.9 7.3 7.0 8.2 7.2
2nd 7.4 4.2 9.2 10.0 7.1 7.1 7.7 7.3
3rd 7.2 4.4 8.9 9.5 7.0 6.5 7.8 7.2
4th 7.4 5.0 8.8 9.9 7.1 6.8 8.3 6.8
1995
1st 7.4 5.0 8.8 9.4 7.3 6.7 8.3 6.8
2nd 7.7 5.5 9.0 9.5 7.5 7.1 8.2 7.7
3rd 7.7 5.6 9.0 9.5 7.1 7.4 8.2 7.9
4th 7.7 5.3 9.2 9.6 6.9 7.6 8.5 7.5
1996
1st 7.9 5.6 9.2 9.8 6.9 8.3 8.5 7.6
2nd 7.8 5.3 9.2 9.5 7.6 7.2 8.6 7.2
3rd 8.0 5.6 9.5 9.9 7.8 7.8 8.7 7.4
4th 7.7 5.6 9.0 9.4 7.1 8.2 8.5 6.7
1997
1st 7.5 5.5 8.7 8.8 6.1 8.5 8.7 6.2
2nd 7.9 6.0 9.1 9.4 6.7 8.2 9.3 6.8
3rd 7.9 5.7 9.2 9.4 7.2 7.9 9.1 6.8
4th 7.7 6.0 8.8 9.0 6.9 7.3 9.3 6.5
1998
1st 7.7 6.2 8.7 9.1 6.3 7.7 9.2 7.0
2nd 8.0 5.9 9.4 9.9 7.2 7.3 10.0 6.6
3rd 8.2 6.5 9.4 9.9 7.0 8.5 9.9 6.6
4th 7.8 6.7 8.5 8.9 6.1 8.0 9.5 6.6
1999
1st 8.2 6.9 9.0 9.2 6.5 8.4 10.4 6.3
2nd 8.1 7.1 8.8 9.0 7.0 8.2 10.2 6.6
3rd 8.2 7.9 8.6 8.7 6.3 8.9 10.4 6.3
4th 7.9 7.4 8.4 8.7 5.3 9.0 10.2 6.1
2000
1st 7.9 6.9 8.6 8.9 5.6 8.5 10.2 6.0
2nd 8.0 7.0 8.7 9.4 5.8 8.3 10.5 6.0
3rd 8.2 7.5 8.8 9.4 5.8 9.6 10.6 5.7
4th 7.8 7.0 8.4 8.9 5.3 8.7 10.8 5.3
2001
1st 8.2 7.68.7 9.3 5.1 8.9 11.3 5.8
2nd 8.3 7.7 8.8 9.7 5.3 10.3 10.8 5.7
3rd 8.4 8.1 8.7 9.6 5.5 9.3 10.8 6.6
4th 8.8 8.3 9.2 10.0 5.4 10.3 11.5 6.6
* not seasonally adjusted ** series break
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
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Robert Robert, Henry Martyn 1837-1923. American army engineer and parliamentary authority. He designed the defenses for Washington, D.C., during the Civil War and later wrote Robert's Rules of Order (1876). Noun 1. J. Sheehan People whose surname is or was Sheehan include:
Robert J. Sheehan is President of Regis (REmote Graphics InStruction) A graphics language from Digital used on graphics terminals and first introduced on the PDP-11. J. Sheehan Management & Economics Consultants in McLean McLean, city (1990 pop. 38,168), Fairfax co., N Va., a suburb of Washington, D.C. Manufacturing includes foods, satellite components, and computer and telecommunications equipment. , Va., and serves as NAA's Consulting Economist This article is about the profession. For the news publication, see The Economist. An economist is an expert in the social science of economics.[1] . He can be reached at 703/893-9185 or via e-mail at gdad@erols.com. Robert J. Sheehan is President of Regis J. Sheehan Management and Economics Consultants in McLean, Va., and serves as NAA's Consulting Economist. He can be reached at 703/893-9185 or via e-mail at gdad@erols.com. |
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